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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I think the GFS as far as areas down by NYC/coastal SNE not changing precip over is a result of the unusual nature of the setup where the surface low basically passes SE of everyone with a strong high to the north but the 700/850 lows are displaced NW. Usually the GFS will torch the BL in this type of scenario and show rain but because of that high pressure it is not even doing that so its more wrong than it even normally would be
  2. SnowGoose69
    The GFS is basically operating like a model in 1985 or 1990. Its not seeing the mid-level warmth that would happen despite the mid level low tracks. Normally the GFS nowadays compensates by showing rain but its likely being confused by the strong surface high to the north.
  3. SnowGoose69
    The fact the GFS tracks the 700 low west and doesn't show sleet anywhere is just baffling
  4. SnowGoose69
    I expect the GFS will cave either this run or next at 00z
  5. SnowGoose69
    The biggest difference a tick in the surface low track might make is in that snow early Thursday AM. The mid-level lows are still going to cross the metro but if the surface low takes a 30 mile jog from where the NAM has it now that CCB like area could do more damage here 08-13Z Thu AM
  6. SnowGoose69
    The 3km NAM flips JFK at 03z and LGA by 04z to sleet. This is pretty much in line with what I have felt all day. I can't see more than 6-7 inches at either place unless something January 87 like takes place in those few hours before
  7. SnowGoose69
    The warm push and dry slot will destroy the temps and snow growth in that layer. I don't think anyone who punches into that nose sees more than just ugly poor growth snow
  8. SnowGoose69
    The NAM seems abnormally slow with start time. I would think the 5 boroughs is snowing by 21-2130z
  9. SnowGoose69
    The high position and the approach of the shortwave/low aren't as good. I've posted a few times the high center near PWM and the system riding north along the immediate coast is the setup to watch. The high in this case is centered more NW and the system is riding more NE or NNE from a point inland. A place like Harrisburg would be the spot to watch for a surprising front end blast as they sit roughly in the same correlated spot NYC was in November 18
  10. SnowGoose69
    Both are technically a bit beyond their range. They won't be grossly wrong but they might have overcorrected 30 miles or so which would result in a massive change for some areas.
  11. SnowGoose69
    Which is sort of funny but ensembles this close in can do funky stuff
  12. SnowGoose69
    I think the shortwave at 500 is fairly strong combined with other factors.
  13. SnowGoose69
    The 3km NAM is so far west NYC might not even snow til 23-00Z so basically would be 3 hours of snow to sleet to rain lol
  14. SnowGoose69
    At this stage anything after 03Z for long island as well as southern Brooklyn and queens might be sleet. I won’t get into the possible change back to snow yet but I think that most areas wouldn’t see much. The CCB would primarily remain north and it’s usually hard to clean up the mess that gets made in the mid levels. We sort of saw that on 1/25/00 after the dry slot
  15. SnowGoose69
    The problem is on the NAM runs you have several hours where it’s snow but the layer from like 720-820 is 0C with a 60kt SSE wind. If indeed that came to fruition I can guarantee you that layer verifies 1-2C easily and those periods are sleet
  16. SnowGoose69
    Need to see 700/850. I would not look at UKMET snow maps since they've been mistakenly thinking the BL is over 32 on LI with the 700/850/surface lows tracking east.
  17. SnowGoose69
    Yeah but how it gets there and where it’s west is a long way off from the GGEM. I don’t see the mid or upper levels yet but a surface low over land just north of ORF is worlds different than one over land north of ACY
  18. SnowGoose69
    At the moment I would be reluctant to go over 10-11 inches in the 5 boroughs due to so many models showing the 700 low track being close. I buy the possibility of the 700 low doing that because the system matures or consolidates late. It’s not a true Miller B but it’s also not a true Miller A so the 700 low may be displaced NW of the surface low center. I don’t buy anything putting a surface low over New Jersey though
  19. SnowGoose69
    If anyone wants to know why those CIPS analogs don’t hold much water the top current analogs in order are 12/14/03 12/05/03 12/25/02 01/26/11 01/03/03 12/05/02. Of that bunch none really resemble this. You can probably combine 12/14/03 and 01/26/11 and get something that has some similarities to this but not great
  20. SnowGoose69
    Someone can sell me on a 700 low in this setup doing that, not the surface low.
  21. SnowGoose69
    The GFS almost always consistently does this with these events though, it’s just consistently wrong . The Euro has probably been the most consistent of all minus that wild 06Z run it had last night
  22. SnowGoose69
    I don't have upper or mids yet but the 06Z panel Thu AM from the Euro sure looks like mixing must get real close...it seems juicier in the 06-12Z panel this run than the 12Z run was
  23. SnowGoose69
    No it starts running about 645pm
  24. SnowGoose69
    They have really been in the sweet spot in recent years with some storms which contributed to that but a few times I thought their final total seemed too high.
  25. SnowGoose69
    Nobody north of Sandy Hook is probably changing to rain with this other than maybe far ERN LI. Sleet or dry slotting is the risk
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