Jump to content

SnowGoose69

Professional Forecaster
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,211

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Euro is now much wetter tomorrow. It definitely blew this one it seems.
  2. SnowGoose69
    Given the -NAO and high in place it would be a fairly significant bust if this ended up primarily rain near the coast or the average snow total amongst EWR/NYC/JFK/LGA was not at least 5-7 inches.
  3. SnowGoose69
    The Op Euro has had major overamped biases at this range now for several years. I believe we could see a run today whether its this one, the 18 or the 00 tonight be insanely far NW (I'm talking where most of the 95 corridor is primarily rain). Its ensembles though will probably be SE of whatever it does on that same Op run
  4. SnowGoose69
    The snow totals would likely be much higher in places just east of that cutoff if the UKIE verified. Islip for example wouldn't see 0
  5. SnowGoose69
    also there is no way Long Island wouldn't see several inches of snow on the front end in that setup .
  6. SnowGoose69
    Sometimes they can make a good run up then shift east hard. It’s probably what’ll happen. It just won’t get was far north and west as the RGEM and some ensembles show
  7. SnowGoose69
    The GFS has come a long way. Although I believe it’s too far SE and it’s not grasping upper or mid dynamics and hence QPF it was always reasonably close to other global guidance from 5-6-7 days out. As recently as 5 years ago that never would have happened
  8. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM is likely too far west but that tells us the GGEM will probably be close to the same idea. The RGEM usually at this range portends what the GGEM will show
  9. SnowGoose69
    Those ptype maps really make no sense. Chances are you would have sleet near NYC in that setup
  10. SnowGoose69
    Sometimes you almost just have to go with history on these things if you look at the EPS/NAM solution it would indicate New York City goes snow-rain-snow. When have we ever seen a storm with this type of set up do that in New York City? Either they stay all snow or they go snow to rain and stay rain and does anyone think that this could stay far enough west where they flipped to rain and that’s it? I just don’t see it given the pattern so I’m leaning in the direction of something splitting the difference of the GEFS EPS. I feel confident both models are too far west and east respectively
  11. SnowGoose69
    The NAM has really been consistent with this. I thought the Euro idea might verify due to the vort energy near Toronto preventing this from getting too far NW but the jet activity is favorable for more precipitation to break out on the NW side of the system so the NAM idea could be right
  12. SnowGoose69
    The NAM solution doesn’t make a whole lot of sense nor does many of the Euro members solely because systems evolving in such a pattern like this have never gone snow-mix or rain-snow at the coast. At least nothing that I can remember in the last 30-40 years. This is why more likely than not either this is going to split the difference between the EPS/NAM and GEFS idea or it’s going to continue ticking further NW
  13. SnowGoose69
    Technically the Euro is going to get tomorrow correct it seems while other models were too far NW so it won’t be consecutive misses if it ends up too far NW Wednesday and Thursday
  14. SnowGoose69
    Yeah it finally joined the party. The RGEM tried to as well but didn’t get there
  15. SnowGoose69
    UKMET caved a bit tonight as did the RGEM. Both had been total misses til tonight
  16. SnowGoose69
    The scary thing is this is replacing the NAM eventually and running out to 60. Nor sure when but certainly within next 3-4 years
  17. SnowGoose69
    It’s damn tough to get a major snow event within 20 miles of the coast in NJ this early in the year barring a perfect setup. A 030-040 wind there is off 50 degree water. Even for JFK it’s a night and day difference as the same wind for them is primarily off land outside of a brief trek over LI sound
  18. SnowGoose69
    Well that would be more than all winter last year for some
  19. SnowGoose69
    That shocked me since it seems they almost always move together. I've said for awhile you really need to dig into the GFS ensembles to find anything of use as the mean usually never skews a ton from the Op
  20. SnowGoose69
    The GEFS follow the Op most of the time. I would not have expected a marked difference. They really go lock step unlike the EPS and Op Euro
  21. SnowGoose69
    Western ridge/+PNA was weaker. Bluewave in the NYC forum has been mentioning this as a possible way this can fail for us on south and near coastal areas.
  22. SnowGoose69
    I don't think much from there. Keep in mind the ptype on the GFS for you is probably wrong. Many places would hold the ageo component there and not flip on that track. Some are playing that if the PNA weakens this cuts more. I don't think there is much room for that. My hunch is if this ends up being warmer/west than this its probably because the system got delayed 18-24 hours allowing the high to further slip east
  23. SnowGoose69
    NYC would probably stay all snow if that track verified to a T. The GFS won't see the CAD or ageo impact in that event. Probably would hold winds 040-050 in that setup and never flip
  24. SnowGoose69
    Its actually less amped than the Op for Monday it seems. I feel that has to be impacting the Wednesday result
  25. SnowGoose69
    I am somewhat wary of Monday being flat because the WRN NATL setup. Those sort of systems in recent winters when we have the upper air pattern we have in place Sun-Mon have almost always been west/amped of what the 48-60 hour guidance has suggested. The CMC has been running somewhat well lately though.
×
×
  • Create New...