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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Yeah it finally joined the party. The RGEM tried to as well but didn’t get there
  2. SnowGoose69
    UKMET caved a bit tonight as did the RGEM. Both had been total misses til tonight
  3. SnowGoose69
    The scary thing is this is replacing the NAM eventually and running out to 60. Nor sure when but certainly within next 3-4 years
  4. SnowGoose69
    It’s damn tough to get a major snow event within 20 miles of the coast in NJ this early in the year barring a perfect setup. A 030-040 wind there is off 50 degree water. Even for JFK it’s a night and day difference as the same wind for them is primarily off land outside of a brief trek over LI sound
  5. SnowGoose69
    Well that would be more than all winter last year for some
  6. SnowGoose69
    That shocked me since it seems they almost always move together. I've said for awhile you really need to dig into the GFS ensembles to find anything of use as the mean usually never skews a ton from the Op
  7. SnowGoose69
    The GEFS follow the Op most of the time. I would not have expected a marked difference. They really go lock step unlike the EPS and Op Euro
  8. SnowGoose69
    Western ridge/+PNA was weaker. Bluewave in the NYC forum has been mentioning this as a possible way this can fail for us on south and near coastal areas.
  9. SnowGoose69
    I don't think much from there. Keep in mind the ptype on the GFS for you is probably wrong. Many places would hold the ageo component there and not flip on that track. Some are playing that if the PNA weakens this cuts more. I don't think there is much room for that. My hunch is if this ends up being warmer/west than this its probably because the system got delayed 18-24 hours allowing the high to further slip east
  10. SnowGoose69
    NYC would probably stay all snow if that track verified to a T. The GFS won't see the CAD or ageo impact in that event. Probably would hold winds 040-050 in that setup and never flip
  11. SnowGoose69
    Its actually less amped than the Op for Monday it seems. I feel that has to be impacting the Wednesday result
  12. SnowGoose69
    I am somewhat wary of Monday being flat because the WRN NATL setup. Those sort of systems in recent winters when we have the upper air pattern we have in place Sun-Mon have almost always been west/amped of what the 48-60 hour guidance has suggested. The CMC has been running somewhat well lately though.
  13. SnowGoose69
    The EPS does not like that event either. The CMC has been pretty consistent in saying that one is a dud. The Euro joined it the last 2 runs. A weaker Monday is probably better for SNE Wednesday...well at least for places that are not SE
  14. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I got it just now. Its really flat. The CMC/Euro oddly enough are in best agreement Monday. At this range thats somewhat unusual
  15. SnowGoose69
    What does the EPS have for Monday? Remember the Op was flat as hell, next flattest compared to the GGEM. If the EPS agrees on Monday there may be some merit to a crappier solution Wednesday as has been said often the last 24 hours.
  16. SnowGoose69
    If the Euro is correct on starting to flatten the Monday wave its more likely the Wednesday one could be issues for places in the MA. The tendency for days has been ensemble members and Op runs which are flat Monday are more tucked Wednesday or warmer
  17. SnowGoose69
    Its 06Z run started the trend. I would have to see the ensembles but this is the sort of system in this pattern I feel might juice more than Euro shows
  18. SnowGoose69
    Its sort of February 2003 but with a strong surface low and a more dynamic setup. That storm was purely overrunning
  19. SnowGoose69
    Canadian really the only Monday holdout now. Still suppressed
  20. SnowGoose69
    Sure enough ICON came in colder Wednesday
  21. SnowGoose69
    Its because it has a "bomb" for Monday in relative terms. Its like low 990s off NJ Monday
  22. SnowGoose69
    It definitely hurt ratios in the 12/26/10 event. The thermals indicated should have been 12-14 to 1 and it was only about 9-10
  23. SnowGoose69
    If that came to fruition I would not want to be in places like interior MA/North of SWF/NW CT for Wednesday. The stronger Monday is more likelihood Wed could be mostly a NYC south event
  24. SnowGoose69
    Real close. NAM for LGA shows about 37/30 37/29 when precip arrives. I still think its just a hair too warm. Would need to see those DPs be more in the lower 20s. There is no question the arrival time of the event mid to late morning which allows for clear skies the night before and prevention of any heating during the ensuing day helps
  25. SnowGoose69
    I think he’s just saying the system would track more tucked with a weaker PNA. The ICON verbatim would probably still be 5-10 inches of snow for anyone north of Sandy Hook and west of Islip before they changeover over but the ICON of course doesn’t resolve the cold air correctly and has like 1 hour of snow. This event barring some sort of massive change in several parameters even if it flips to liquid will probably be in the category of a January 87 March 93 February 2014 in regards to how much snow you see before a flip
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