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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    2/12/94 did not have much of a surface low though. It was purely overrunning, it was basically a baby version of PD2...similar setup to that but shorter duration with a raging +NAO where as I believe PD2 NAO was flipping from neg-pos..
  2. SnowGoose69
    The Euro has had this issue the last few storms...its tended it seems to be flatter than other guidance until the last 1-2 model cycles and then came north. Given the pattern I was confused as to why the WAA precip would be shunted east that severely...I had never seen that before in a setup such as this...part of it is the progression of the coastal development but it still seemed to be pushing things too far east.
  3. SnowGoose69
    Its huge down this way because if you shift most models 30 miles NW tomorrow afternoon NYC could see 8, if you shift them 30 south they get 2.
  4. SnowGoose69
    High res models are beginning to indicate it could be a case of the area starting to snow not til 14-15Z and then within 60-90 mins of onset immediately going to a period of mod-heavy with most accumulation occurring in 2-3 hours
  5. SnowGoose69
    It has maybe 4-5 inches before 00Z in NYC...its way later on start time but the HRRR is moving that direction too that 14-15Z could be when this starts...this event has pretty massive bust potential because if we get fringed we likely never flip to sleet at all but might snow for 30 hours. If the Euro is 30 miles too far south we might see 7 inches before 4pm but then inevitably if the warm advection precip is more north we flip to sleet by 4pm
  6. SnowGoose69
    PHL got nothing. The snow band got to about WRI/NEL and that was all...as a matter of fact WRI I think got 3-4 inches in one hour and then the snow band immediately kicked east again...that was when the NYC NWS and most private sector forecasters realized it was not gonna happen
  7. SnowGoose69
    12KM NAM coming in more S-E with later changeover...definite move towards Euro idea albeit it was a just a nudge...at same time the 12km NAM delayed the sleet change by an hour or so...the 3km isnt in far enough yet
  8. SnowGoose69
    I want to see some sort of south shift on the 3k NAM...the HREF/NAM combo argues the Euro is likely a tad too far south tomorrow with the snows which would indicate 4-6 is likely for NYC before any sleet changeover...the sleet changeover if you blend the NAM/Euro is closer to 23-00Z but the amounts are obviously less
  9. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM is probably way too late getting the snow in...the one thing I learned this winter is never go against start time on the 3km NAM. It has repeatedly won that war while the RGEM has lost. The RGEM still gives pretty good snows 17-21z like the NAM does, it just has nothing really from 10-16z
  10. SnowGoose69
    The NAM idea wins IMO 75-25...the NAM is probably underdone on the post 22Z activity but the GFS is overdone I think Thu night and Fri. The setup screams to me overall that nothing big is coming from the coastal outside of eastern SNE..
  11. SnowGoose69
    the 3km NAM is correct about 8 out of times but those 2 where it is overly aggressive on the warming can really screw up a forecast because 2-3 hours too early on the changeover can be 5 inches more of snow if you're seeing heavy rates just out ahead of the changeover line which you often will
  12. SnowGoose69
    I am suspicious of where it shows that warm layer...given the winds I more think that the warming in the 650-700 layer is underdone and that warming below 800 is overdone...I still think NYC flips over to sleet by 20 or 21Z at the latest
  13. SnowGoose69
    The totals may be underdone a bit on the NAM...if you stop at 20Z when it shows NYC going to sleet the 3 and 12km average out to only 3-4 inches...given the frontogenesis showing up I think the period from 17-20 see could have moderate-heavy snow and it really is not indicating that so I still think 4-6 is more likely.
  14. SnowGoose69
    Inside 48 it has not been overly crazy...beyond that it has been.
  15. SnowGoose69
    Some of that is likely sleet....I estimated on QPF about 5.5 in NYC through 00Z...I don't think we can assume all of that post 00Z QPF is snow
  16. SnowGoose69
    Same idea as Euro...the best WAA stuff misses NYC just south then the main coastal stuff regenerates but mostly well north....its probably around 5 inches in NYC if I had to guess....I assume everything after 00Z is a mix
  17. SnowGoose69
    I LOL'd at the insane area of 2-3 inch per hour rates on the 3kn NAM....given the general trends in recent storms its exactly where you want it 36-42 hours out if you're near NYC
  18. SnowGoose69
    At least at this range it has, inside of 36 though many of them have ticked back and ultimately verified a tad NW in the end of the models in the final 12 hours
  19. SnowGoose69
    The EPS through 54 is a tad more north with the precip than the Op
  20. SnowGoose69
    Timing is more logical on Euro now but at same time I agree with bluewave this thing is too suppressed
  21. SnowGoose69
    The UKIE has that same bizarre evolution the Euro has with the late arrival of the snow...its likely both are sort of killing the WAA and transferring energy to the new coastal..its only explanation I have why they both dont have precip til like 00Z or later and all other models are 12 hours earlier
  22. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET has that funky late start time like the Euro
  23. SnowGoose69
    The 700mb jet on the NAM is more NW than most other models...at this stage I would have to assume it is wrong given its an outlier and its beyond its best range. That axis of orientation of the 700 jet though is more favorable for areas NW of NYC
  24. SnowGoose69
    Its actually showing up on CIPS analogs fairly high up, or at least it was last night.
  25. SnowGoose69
    Coastal areas want the non NAM progression. The NAM is still more west and north, particularly as the system crosses through areas 24-36 hours before reaching the area. Coastal areas in these setups always want the main WAA precip to be approaching at an angle of 180-200 or so...if the setup is aligned so that its coming from more W-SW than that your system is tracking more west than you want and the main WAA is going to your NW.
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