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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Yeah the CMC basically has tomorrow's storm sort of acting as a 50-50
  2. SnowGoose69
    Given the NAO the Canadian is probably too optimistic
  3. SnowGoose69
    I had said earlier, anytime you see the GFS seeing front end snows with a system at this range you can take it to the bank that barring some sort of huge synoptic setup change in the ensuing few days that it will happen. It usually has the coast as snow for 1 hour then over to rain.
  4. SnowGoose69
    I'm not too worried about ice issues for the metro despite the NE wind flow...there will likely be periodic FZRA til mid aftn tomorrow but even that is iffy. The air mass is pretty stale. I could easily see even with the NE wind the metro being 34-36 all day tomorrow anyway. We went above guidance today as it is
  5. SnowGoose69
    The high position and this system riding up from more directly S or SSW of us at the moment tells me there is potential for a decent front end snow of 4 inches plus even at the coast.
  6. SnowGoose69
    Alot can still change but whenever you see lousy res models like GFS at 90 plus hours showing event starting as snow, it IS gonna start as snow. Its too early right now to know if its 2 inches or 6 before the changeover but I'm confident it starts as snow
  7. SnowGoose69
    2/2/96
  8. SnowGoose69
    They got 5 in 3 hours if I remember right, 2-2-1 from 9am-12pm
  9. SnowGoose69
    Yeah some believe that, also came off what was like a 3 year long El Niño event which is why some argue despite it being a neutral ENSO we had an El Niño like wave train of storm activity. The 2/8 event was aided by a flukey mesoscale band that setup across southern parts of the NYC metro mostly impacting places like EWR, SI down across southern Bklyn/Queens. It was just north of the changeover line to FZRA/PL. I think tonight some places in S NJ and S PA see the same thing happen where a narrow area north of the mix line is hit hard by localized banding
  10. SnowGoose69
    Insane -EPO and a very large polar vortex. I think probably there was some degree of SSW that winter. The NAO was largely positive though while the AO was mostly negative all winter. 93-94 was fairly similar to 13-14 or 14-15 (I forget which one now lol). This event tonight is sort of a baby version of the February 8 94 event. The upper level pattern across the country is actually almost the same and the dynamics of the set up similar. Models also brought that 100 or more miles north inside 48 hours. That event appeared to be a DC and PHL snow storm up until the 00 runs on 2/7. The big difference is that event was multiple waves riding along the boundary where as this is just one so you’re not going to see 2 foot amounts like Cape Cod saw in that storm. It’s a much shorter duration event
  11. SnowGoose69
    UKMET also north but amounts are quite light
  12. SnowGoose69
    And as I said days ago, models corrected colder in the Friday to Monday window after they torched things for awhile. It may not be brutally cold but no question seeing ATL go from a high on models 3 days ago Friday of 68 to probably a 2am high now before the wedge of 55 is quite a change
  13. SnowGoose69
    The follow up as the wave ejects behind it might. The first part I think is done. The models have had issues for weeks now overdoing the SE ridge day 5-9 or so and then they correct back to a colder idea though not as cold as they showed 10 days or more out. The last 2-3 model cycles now have massively sped up the progression of the Arctic boundary in the southeast US Friday through Sunday when 2 days ago the Euro and CMC wanted no part of it getting south of Arkansas or west Tennessee
  14. SnowGoose69
    There’s no doubt models are finally reaching a consensus now on the timing of the boundary coming through the SE. the Euro and CMC are the latest but at least the models as a whole now are at least within a day of another and not 5 days
  15. SnowGoose69
    I think those areas missed banding in north queens and NYC. Central Park ended up at 4.5
  16. SnowGoose69
    How’s this for a strange range. 5.6 at Newark 4.2 at LaGuardia 6.5 at JFK
  17. SnowGoose69
    Yeah that HRRR run is pretty nuts. It’s crazy how the NAM really hates that event still though it has come south and is juicier than it was
  18. SnowGoose69
    It’s been like that now seemingly for days though I think the last night’s Canadian ensemble sort of did agree with the Op on being torchy but that was only run that did
  19. SnowGoose69
    It’s one of those events I think where if there is any UHI impact they will be low. I’m sure people just outside of LGA and JFK have more in their backyards than that
  20. SnowGoose69
    JFK and LGA both 2.2, EWR 4.0, NYC 3.0
  21. SnowGoose69
    The CMC and CMC ensemble at 160 is glaringly different too. It’s odd that the only Op run consistently pushing the cold air east is the GFS but all the ensembles are doing it
  22. SnowGoose69
    I just toggled between the CMC op run at 150-156 at 500mb and GEPS at the same time.. it has to be the most ridiculous difference between an Op run and an ensemble inside Day 8 that I’ve ever seen
  23. SnowGoose69
    The CMC has had back to back Op runs now where for like 5 straight days it’s 10 in Memphis with ice and 75 in Birmingham. I don’t buy that an Arctic boundary is going to get held up that long. Even the 00Z Op Euro of having a straight up north to south gradient pattern made more sense. The GFS is pretty much worlds different than both the others and it’s been winning those wars almost all winter
  24. SnowGoose69
    Honestly it seems many of the NYC TV Mets had some sort of scandal. Cimino, Dannon, the woman who lied about being assaulted, Evans, it’s a long list, Mr. G somehow has escaped unscathed for 45 years
  25. SnowGoose69
    It’s more that the shortwave is absurdly strong down south. The NAM would indicate that even if this ticked 40 miles more west this thing could be wrapped enough that areas that mix or change to rain but still have the low track just east of them could flip back to very heavy snow for a period of 2-3 hours
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