SnowGoose69

To a degree that’s what’s happening but unlike 2/2010 for example HPN/SWF/DXR are snowing, this is the usual case of that dry nose pushing through the metro from the NE so they can take 1-2 hours longer to saturate between like 3-8K than areas west or even due north

Which is sort of odd because it’s MJO projection is markedly worse overall than the EPS is so it’s somewhat strange that on the 00Z ensemble it shows a better setup

I think those are possible in SNE. I just feel the worst period might be 2/3-2/10 or so as far as most mild

Yeah at least the GEFS seems like it might be about to improve things in the E Pac up through Alaska at the end, the EPS you’d be 10-15 more days probably til you could reset what it shows at 360

The Op GFS was classic 97-98 after like 180 hours...not a terrible pattern but just simply too warm...the SE US would probably average near to slightly below in that pattern but up here would be 3-5 above

TBH I think the torchiest/worst pattern we get might happen between about 2/3-2/9 or so....its still far off but that has the look of worst maybe happening before it reshuffles..the next 12 days may be above normal but there may be chances for something

I still think the IVT will probably perform better than a ton of models show but those amounts north of TTN are nuts...some type of bizarre mesoscale shenanigans would have to unfold for that to transpire

Its always too dry...its probably realistic outside of C-SNJ but I expect there's plenty of 4-6 inch amounts there

PSU in the MA forum has said he's noticed when the wave moves fast it has less impact...might be something to that

I recall one instance where that happened...in last 10 years went from like over CNTRL-LI back to Westchester on all models at 24-36 hours out and ended up in like Long Beach NJ

Dry air is not a huge concern tomorrow in my mind...flow is W-SW through most of the column til tomorrow AM...the problem simply is the trof/system tracking most likely too far south but it would not shock me at all if many stations in the metro have more snow from this than they did the last event, albeit not by a ton but certainly could exceed it by 0.5-1 across the board...2.7 at NYC would not exactly shock me at all

Yeah the only place that will be cool is the SE where even in that pattern they'd see their coldest February in like 8 years since without the SER they won't see days of 75-80

The tendency had been since November EPS too weak/GEFS too strong, both too slow but last 2 weeks EPS strength actually was closer to reality and the GEFS was too strong...now both have grossly changed their forecast the last 4 days so who knows now

I agree with that, maybe a tad too high in the 3-4 zone up north but the 4-6 is legit given the IVT setup....if that happens its likely areas in there see more than what many models are spitting out in C-SNJ

It certainly could, for the majority of winters it generally is a non-factor...it just so happens its been unusually active the last 4-5 years

You definitely do not want the GEFS idea today of it re-emerging in 3 to be correct...its better for it to just go totally dormant and do nothing

With a +PNA you won't see anything that warm, it'll just be alot of days averaging 5-7 above normal

QPF wise Euro looked like it was gonna go boom but then flat lined

I generally never used it this far out. I do know its very good on the mean inside 24 usually. I am still surprised to see a mean of 5 and max of 8-10 though

I feel as if more members don’t have it stalling today than yesterday, there’s a few more now blasting it through 7

The RAP/SREF are showing their usual NW bias at this range...its why I have said if you can pick a spot to be right now I'd go with a Long Branch-Cranbury-Marlboro-South Brunswick line....I think the IVT may set up somewhere between about EWR and TTN in the end based off just past tendency of where these go from 48-60 hours out

Often times in the -EPO pattern you default to the -AO/+NAO idea...we saw that in 93-94 and 13-14 or was it 14-15? I forget...but the EPO heights sometimes can hook NE if the EPO ridge is positioned more east of where the GEFS shows it so you end up with above normal heights over the pole and a -AO but the PV gets shunted into E Canada and extends over Greenland so you get a +NAO. The GEPS sort of shows this idea at 336 hours but its not really a true depiction of what we saw in those 2 winters for large stretches

Its 2 problems the last few years since its recent upgrade is a notable dry bias and also the Op is often over amped with E coast storms from 90-120...in this event since the dynamics are not especially strong its paltry QPF could be right but its sure doing what it so often does on QPF relative to other models

96-99 was insanely bad...that said, 96-97 was a great winter for areas say north of the PA/NY border, we simply got very unlucky with a few setups here, 97-98 98-99 were horrendous though...remember that the 5 boroughs had no Winter Storm Watch issued at all from late March 1996 til 12/28/00....the January 2000 event would have had one issued but due to the model issues the area went straight to a warning...to go that long where at 24-48 hours no storm was going to obviously produce 6 inches or more of snow or 0.25 inches of ice is an impressive run

Its sort of funny how it was most consistent model with this past event but its been in my mind the most inconsistent with this one by a wide margin. The NAM/Euro have been most consistent, albeit snowing different ideas but they've bounced around the least run to run