SnowGoose69

The problem doesn’t really start til March 1. As we’ve seen the last few years climo argues against any big storms for the coast that late. Despite the fact models on several occasions showed something huge 1-2 days out we’ve had 2-3 massive busts in that span

New Year’s Eve looks remote to me at this time. There isn’t a whole lot of room there to get that thing more amped without also poisoning the air mass in place. It’s likely that if that comes far enough up its rain anyway

If I remember right 01-02 was similar in that many kept saying watch us pay for this big time in March April May and we torched most of the time. I think late April 2002 we got close to 100 a few days. It used to be those torch winters seemed to always have miserable springs when you were outside of your snow window but 01-02 and 11-12 were very mild in the spring

A good amount of school districts on Long Island, particularly Nassau county had no snow days or just one total between 1/22/87 and 2/8/94. Mine was one of them. It’s fairly remarkable given 6-8 inches tends to be about the threshold that closes most districts that we went 5 full years without one. Again there was some bad luck in there such as storms falling on weekends or holidays like thanksgiving 1989, 93 blizzard

Even there it was only about a 20 day period if I remember right maybe around 1/25 to 2-10 or so. The rest of the winter was a torch there as well.

Will depend if this area across NNJ lifts north or not as many models indicate but right now it seems to want to set up close to NYC and dewpoints are way lower than forecast 24 hours ago. It’s possible Central Park might dodge the December shutout albeit with like 0.1 or 0.2

Euro following historical trends. It may not be an El Niño right now according to the pattern or the SOI but it’s owning most other guidance beyond day 3. It looks as if it may even get the 26-27 disturbance running out ahead of the cutter correct as well. It lost it for a day or two on the Op runs and had about 50% ensemble support. Now it’s coming back and the GFS/UKMET are picking it up too.

That was pretty much what I meant, the EPO ridge that goes to nearly the North Pole. You’re correct that as of now nothing shows that but I do believe either last winter or the previous winter around this time the long range ensembles showed a solid PNA ridge over the western CONUS with a -NAO. Sure enough that eventually transitioned over the ensuing week to a neutral to negative PNA and a massive EPO type ridge off the coast which didn’t do us much good. It wasn’t that first time since 2012 or 13 we had seen that happen either. The tendency since the 2010-11 winter has been more for those EPO off the west coast ridges than it has been the positive PNA Montana ridge. The PDO has likely been the reason why.

It pretty much is impossible. DT has has videos before explaining that. The downstream pattern makes it extremely hard. You might be able to get an east based weak -NAO but that’s about it. See 93-94 and 14-15 where more or less the NAO was positive the entire winter both times

If we transition to more of an EPO ridge vs a PNA ridge there won’t be any blocking on the Atlantic side. At this stage it’s too early to say for sure this will be entirely PNA induced

The 18Z NAM looked like it was headed for something decent but it washes out right as it nears the Delmarva. It’s possible the energy crossing the Great Lakes is causing problems

UKMET through 72

The 28th I think has a better shot than NYE. I say that because it feels like NYE needs perfect timing on many factors while all the 28th needs is the system to trend less amped over time

The other thing to watch is the GFS/NAM continue to be weaker than the Euro. The Euro is fairly potent at 500 and the Euro will often tend to run low on QPF on these systems 3-4 days out. If this spits out .20-.40 in the end it should easily be snow from the Metro northward

That’s what the models are spitting out verbatim but it looks to me on soundings to be cold enough for snow if there is ecen remotely decent rates for any time

This was the UKMET at 72

The Euro tends to overamp and overcut everything beyond day 5 ever since its upgrade a few years ago. Don’t forget the EPS majority members Just 4/5 days ago showed more or less a SER on 25-27 which now won’t come close to verifying

It also shows something on the 26th. It’s continuing on an off to try to break off a vort from that cutter and run it out ahead of the system

The GFS has shown something on and off but basically flurries

UKMET at 72 isn’t even same league as NAM and GFS. There continues to be a big split on the 24th with the American models vs the UKMET/Euro

UKMET at 72 looks like it would be headed for an inland snow coastal rain event on the 24th. Either the American or foreign model camp is going to get smoked on this. They aren’t even close

The models have no clue which system or disturbancr to focus on. The 12Z NAM has nothing. The GFS seemed to be headed in the direction of focusing on the system for the 26th. It at least tried to get something going across the southern Lakes

83 was basically the exact setup as December 2009 displaced about 60-80 miles further northwest. Both were more or less non phased shortwaves that amplified due to a favorable upstream ridge and subsequent downstream pattern. You could argue a subtle southern stream shortwave phased in with the 09 storm but the system probably would have been big even without it. 83 was believed to have had some type of gravity wave which led to the thunder and insane amounts in EPA/N NJ and NYC

79 was PD1. It mostly missed everyone north of central NJ. I think JFK had 6 inches and LaGuardia had 1 or 2

SSWs as a whole make the entire hemisphere hostile to any sort of extraordinarily mild weather. In general the AO is going negative 98 out of 100 times. The only way it can really do nothing to help is if you have an awful Pacific which it doesn’t look like we will have based on most of the longer range ensembles