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    Mt. Arlington, NJ Morris/Sussex County Border Elevation 1050'
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    Meteorology, Science, Yankees and Finance

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  1. Had .95" last 24 hours. Looks like back to our regularly scheduled program for this week with not much going on next 5-7 days. Still hopeful last week of month can deliver at least some snow and perhaps a notable cold shot. Chances of significant snow event (>6") not looking likely at this point.
  2. NWS PHI mentions significant icing possible along and north of Rt 78 in afternoon AFD. If trends on EURO persist this could be real possibility. Worth watching out for.
  3. Although likely overdone EURO shows significant amount of freezing rain over NNJ, especially inland. Did pretty well with ZR on last event, although a bit overdone. Surface temps solidly below freezing for long duration so threat of significant icing, up to 1/2" is possibility. Lets hope is more IP than ZR. Half inch ice accretion is significant and can bring down tree limbs and power lines. Euro currently showing 1/4 - 1/2 amounts NNJ with some locally higher amounts Sussex County. Thinking the 1"+ QPF is likely also overdone so would expect ZR totals to be near lower end of EURO range. This post in reference to Monday late afternoon into Tuesday event. The Sunday night into early Monday event looks insignificant for metro NYC.
  4. Think the main thing to take away from EPS this afternoon is that there is the threat of storm along the east coast in about a week. Even stronger signal for another bitter cold arctic outbreak by Sunday into last week of January and perhaps into first week February. Much higher confidence in that than any storm details at this point...overall pattern on latest eps can deliver the goods as far as extreme cold in concerned.
  5. Trust me I know that. But I was just trying to put it in simple terms for others. If your comment above applies to snow maps then it would certainly apply to your original post about individual members being "very deep". The individual members and individual members snow totals are directly related. Looking at the 500 EPS mean also supports the lack of snow on the individual member maps. First vort is allowed to escape east (no phasing) while deeper arctic s/w dives into and through the mid-west. All of this is not really worth discussing since as I said the op and the eps will change many times between now and next Tuesday my only point was that looking at this one single run of the eps it was not very encouraging. Can almost guarantee the 00Z op / eps will have a different solution since we are 7-8 days away.
  6. The EPS members don't look that encouraging to me as of now. Granted they can and will change in the days ahead but 12z 01/21 EPS show 6 out of 51 members giving CP 6"+ (3 of the six give 8-12" and the other 3 are right around 6) and the majority of the other 45 + the control give CP between a coating and 3" over the next 10 days (thru 12Z 1/31) that is not encouraging signal as of right now. Like I said things are likely to change several times over the next week but taking this run of the EPS at face value not much to write home about.
  7. Switched to freezing rain about 10:45. Had 2.5" snow before changeover. Currently moderate freezing rain and 30.2 degrees. Just on the edge of stark temperature gradient. Just 15-20 miles to my northwest temperatures are in the low 20's with freezing rain. Starting to think ZR potential might of been underestimated by some over NW NJ, especially Sussex county. Tree and power line issues could big problem come daybreak. See no obvious reason at the moment for temperatures to spike north of 80 and west of 287. Temperatures here have been very steady last few hours. I hope the worst of the ZR stays to my NW. Don't want to be w/o heat with the coming cold. Already some decent icicles forming on deck railing.
  8. 8:00 27 degrees with light to occasionally moderate snow .50" over last hour or so.
  9. LOL too funny. I remember once I put an old screen over the box to "store" my collected grasshoppers. Won't go off topic anymore but I'd forgotten about that memory as well. Back in the day, that is what kids did. Came home from school, changed into play clothes and went outside and did stuff. In the summer you went out after dinner played with your friends and came home when the street lights came on. Technology is a great thing but I'm glad I was a kid in the mid 60's - mid 70' today miss out on alot. Smart phones, ipads and play dates just are not the same. Won't go off topic anymore....after much time and energy expended this week it feels like one of those busted events from when I was a kid when a Winter Storm Warning would be downgraded to a Travelers Advisory....slammed a few weather radios up in my day.
  10. Wow, a memory I had forgotten all about. Also in mid 50's and I did the same thing. Bundled up and sat on the metal milk box waiting for the clouds to move in and the first flakes to fall. Life was internet, you had to rely on the evening news, Accuweather discussions at 35 min after the hour, a Radio Shack weather cube and the power of observation to try and figure out what was happening. I'll bet 75% of the people on this board don't know what a milk box was used for. Thanks for the memory!
  11. As of 3pm: 7.5" with moderate snow ongoing. Temp 29.5
  12. 3.5" here. Just had a heavy band move through. Temp holding between 29.5 and 30.
  13. Light to borderline moderate snow. 2" on the ground from the overnight until now.
  14. Just posted link to animation. No matter what final outcome is that satellite picture is epic. Not something you see everyday.
  15. Latest goes IR is amazing. You can clearly see the LLC and at least as of now it is tracking just east of due north. Tapping moisture from near Panama! IR link: WV link: