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Dunkman

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About Dunkman

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KGSO
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    High Point, NC

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  1. Dunkman

    Hurricane Michael

    The situation with the Dan River in Danville is truly awful tonight. It's a foot over the record now with no real signs of being near a crest.
  2. Dunkman

    Major Hurricane Michael

    It actually reminds me of driving through Francis Marion National Forest like a month after Hugo as a child.
  3. Dunkman

    Hurricane Michael

    RAH finally sounding the alarm on the band of heavy wind on the backside in their latest briefing https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf
  4. Dunkman

    Hurricane Michael

    I mean yes it's overdone I don't think anyone is expecting 90mph gusts. But can you rule out 70? Probably not?
  5. Dunkman

    Major Hurricane Michael

    A lot of the shots of the woods/trees from Michael remind me of Hugo. I'm sure other storms are similar but Hugo is the worst hurricane I was able to see the immediate aftermath of in person so it's definitely my reference point.
  6. Dunkman

    Hurricane Michael

    I don't know, I'd certainly think about including the Charlotte metro up through the Triad. People here have done absolutely nothing to prepare in any way. Should be interesting tomorrow.
  7. Dunkman

    Major Hurricane Michael

    It was pretty suspect, here's the actual raw data. Several of the observations near this one were missing data and/or flagged as well. I'll also note that the 133 and 132 knot SFMR readings outbound were over/near land. Time: 17:06:00Z Coordinates: 29.783N 85.667W Acft. Static Air Press: 700.4 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,583 m (8,474 ft) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 946.1 mb (27.94 inHg) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 283° at 117 kts (From the WNW at 134.6 mph) Air Temp: 14.1°C (57.4°F) Dew Pt: 14.1°C (57.4°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 123 kts (141.5 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 138 kts* (158.8 mph*) SFMR Rain Rate: 41 mm/hr* (1.61 in/hr*)
  8. Dunkman

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 17:51Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301 Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2018 Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 15 Observation Number: 22 A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 17:09:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29.97N 85.64W B. Center Fix Location: 14 statute miles (23 km) to the S (174°) from Panama City, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,402m (7,881ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 922mb (27.23 inHg) - Extrapolated E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 138kts (158.8mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the S (186°) of center fix at 17:06:00Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 287° at 129kts (From the WNW at 148.5mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the S (187°) of center fix at 17:07:00Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 133kts (153.1mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) of center fix at 17:23:30Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 224° at 152kts (From the SW at 174.9mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) of center fix at 17:22:30Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,962m (9,718ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 152kts (~ 174.9mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) from the flight level center at 17:22:30Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
  9. Dunkman

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Yeah someone posted a graphic earlier that was up to a 30% chance force hurricane for winds in NC from Michael. Obviously Florida is the main focus but it isn't looking like a great situation in NC.
  10. Dunkman

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I assumed they were just waiting to give the storm as long as possible to strengthen before doing one last pass for the 11pm advisory but I certainly don't actually know.
  11. Dunkman

    Hurricane Michael

    Oh they've found 130 knots in the last half hour. Classic rapid intensification going on tonight. Best hope now I guess is that it peaks and begins to weaken before landfall.
  12. Dunkman

    Major Hurricane Michael

    So there are a few factors at play. For one, the friction with land slows down the wind. So once you get away from the very immediate coastal locations it's hard to get a measurement that corresponds to the actual strength. Likewise, as a storm starts weakening (as soon as it hits land pretty much) it becomes harder to mix those strongest winds down to the surface, especially in anything more than gusts. Florence was a good example as there were many 2-3 gusts measured, even far away from the center, but relatively few reports of sustained winds anywhere near that strength.
  13. Dunkman

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I'm not sure I'd say that. The surface value matches with the vast majority of the wind readings it's really only in a very narrow range of a few mbs that it slacks off to just under 100 kts. To be clear I'm not insinuating I think it's a 125 knot storm, far from it. But I don't think a gust of that strength is impossible in that explosive convection.
  14. Dunkman

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Pretty surprised no one has mentioned this yet but what a gust (I'm assuming it's a gust, if not yikes).
  15. Dunkman

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Here's some new microwave data (now with extra pixelation). That NE eyewall band is seriously impressive.
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