Welcome to American Weather

RU848789

Members
  • Content count

    1,653
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About RU848789

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Metuchen, NJ (about a mile WNW of NJ TPK exit 10 in Edison)
  1. Wow, everybody gave up. I can see why, though, lol. The 6Z runs continue to show little to no snow south of 78 and at most 1-2" north of there, and probably only at higher elevations. Very surprised the NWS-Philly maintained the advisories for Sussex/Warren/Morris and the Poconos/Lehigh Valley for 3-6" above 1000' and 1-3" in the valleys. They did cut snowfall amounts elsewhere, however, as per the map. And even these amounts are generous vs. what the models show. I think they're hedging their bets a bit in case the storm over-delivers, which is always still possible, but not likely - I could easily see little to no accumulation anywhere south of I-80, except at higher elevations in NJ/PA. We'll see. In case anyone cares, here are the maps..
  2. Agreed. I send out winter weather notes to coworkers, friends and family (and FB) and I made that exact comment, reading between the lines... "Confidence in this forecast is pretty low, as these kinds of inverted troughs, associated with redeveloping clippers off the coast, are notoriously difficult to pinpoint. There will likely be 2-4" of snow from the system somewhere, but exactly where is the question and that's mostly likely north of 78 and east of the Parkway, which is likely why the NWS-NYC is predicting a bit more snow, as per the maps below."
  3. Ignore the NAM at our peril, lol - most of this falls Sat night/Sun morning.
  4. Thanks. Definitely agree the bigger bust is where mostly/all rain fell instead of several inches of snow, like Ocean/Monmouth Counties, where some coastal folks got almost all rain. Rain vs. frozen is a much bigger difference than sleet vs. snow.
  5. Not sure if you saw my kind of long-winded analysis, earlier in the thread, of why I thought the storm wasn't as much of a bust as many have said, so in case you haven't, I'll do the short version here, as I think we're in agreement that from a forecasting perspective, it was far more important to get the total mass of frozen precip correct than it was to get the snow/sleet breakdown perfect, which is very hard to do, as you've noted, given the challenges with modeling thermal profiles. Sure, their predictions were for snow, not snow + sleet as mass equivalent, so that's clearly a miss, but that's a minor point to me. For me, for yesterday's storm, the prediction from the NWS for Edison (northern Middlesex County) was 18-24" on the map and 12-18" in the blizzard warning (not sure why the discrepancy, but it doesn't matter much for this) and was about 12-20", on average from the various local media. So, I got 5" of snow, then 1/2" of mixed snow/sleet, then 2.5" of 90% snow (those amazing 4" diameter mini-pancakes), then 2.5" of 90% sleet and it was a total of 8" on the ground, due to compaction. I know the 2.5" sleet number because I shoveled right after the snow changed fully to sleet and almost all that fell afterwards was sleet and that was 2.5" on my driveway. So, if I assume my roughly 7.5" of ~90% snow that fell had a typical 10:1 ratio of snow to liquid that would be 0.75" of liquid equivalent. And then if I assume the roughly 3" of ~90% sleet that fell had a typical ratio of 3:1, that would be 1.0" of liquid equivalent, making a sum total of 1.75" of liquid equivalent. Converting that back to all snow, assuming a typical 10:1 ratio, that would be 17.5" of snow equivalent that fell. Pretty close to the estimated LE from most of the models and vs. the roughly 18" of snowfall forecast (if I took an average). And I would say the impact of this mass of snow equivalent is essentially the same as 17" of actual snow would've been - just ask anyone who shoveled, plowed or drove around in this stuff - and just the fact that it was a snowy/sleety mess on NYC streets tells me the impact was there (unlike last Friday's storm which all melted on roads). https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49828-march-13-14-the-blizzard-of-2017-obs/?do=findComment&comment=4522637
  6. Pretty big bust for the I-95 corridor in terms of snowfall, but not in terms of total frozen precip, at least from maybe Trenton northward, where it hasn't been rain as far as I know. I had about 7" of snow/sleet on the ground about 90 minutes ago (7.5" now, with some compaction) and I shoveled the driveway at that point and 90 min later I now have about 2" of sleet on the driveway, which is the equivalent of about 6" of snow, so I have about 13" of "snow equivalent," in terms of total frozen precip mass, even if I only have 7.5" depth (partly due to compaction - the 7" + 2" sleet did not equal 9" depth, lol), which is just as hard to shovel or plow and is just as bad on the roads - it's just not the same depth it would be if it were all snow and maybe isn't as pretty. From a meteorological perspective, snow and sleet are just counted together, as depth, so it is more of a bust from that perspective. I'm guessing we should get another inch or two of sleet (3-6" snow equivalent, which would bring us to 16-19" of "snow equivalent" mass) unless it changes to rain, although it's still just 29F, so that's unlikely - and if it does, it would be freezing rain, which the NWS warned about, which would be really bad. So maybe a topic for another thread: should we be "measuring" some sort of "snow equivalent" in some way? No easy way to do it, but there ought to be a way to convey that 6" of snow and 4" of sleet is roughly the same mass as 18" of snow even if the depth would probably be maybe 8", due to compaction, not 10", as the sleet on top of the snow compacts the underlying snow significantly. Or just convert it to liquid equivalent and then assume 10:1 to compare it to other snowstorms - problem there is then you'd always have to do this for every snowstorm to get them on the same mass basis. In truth, snow mass is a better gauge of impact than snow depth, anyway (mass is more important than depth for shoveling and removal and is just as important for travel impacts), but I doubt it'll ever really be used, since depth is so much easier to measure. Curious what people think.
  7. Can't you see the location under the member name?
  8. NWS in Upton just dropped/reduced most of the winter weather headlines for NYC eastward. from 18-24" in Orange/Putnam/WPassaic to 2-4" in Suffolk County and just a WWAdvisory for NYC. Sucks. National Weather Service New York NY 814 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Storm racing NNE faster than expected - pushing warmer air aloft in faster than expected as well. Low is near Ocean City MD (just inland) at 12z. Based on this - have cancelled all winter headlines for Long Island, except N Nassau. Have changed NYC, along with N Nassau, Hudson and coastal SE CT to a winter weather advisory. Converted interior SE CT, coastal SW CT, S Westchester and E portions of NE NJ to a Winter Storm Warning. Blizzard warning remains in effect elsewhere. Snow totals remain 18-24 inches across Orange, Putnam and W Passaic down to 2 to 4 inches across Suffolk County (already has fallen). Expect rain to push into advisory areas this morning and a change over to sleet and possibly rain in Winter Storm warning areas. SE portions of Blizzard Warning area could see some sleet mix in as well.
  9. NWS not thinking straight? They just reissued the blizzard warnings for 18-24" of snow for Somerset, Hunterdon, Upper Bucks and Upper Montco and all PA/NJ counties north of there, as per below. Ok, I can live with that if they stay snow. But how can they do that and still have Middlesex/Mercer/Monmouth and lower Bucks/Montco in a 4-10" range? Completely discontinuous. Also, note the risk of 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain in this area and down towards Philly. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Mount Holly NJ813 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville,Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie813 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THISEVENING...* LOCATIONS...Eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and strong winds.* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches, alongwith around a trace of ice.URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Mount Holly NJ813 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-Including the cities of New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook,Trenton, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale,Morrisville, and Doylestown813 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING......BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a WinterStorm Warning for snow and ice, which is in effect until 6 PM EDTthis evening. The Blizzard Warning has been cancelled.* LOCATIONS...Parts of southeastern Pennsylvania across centralNew Jersey.* HAZARD TYPES...occasionally heavy snow...sleet and freezing rainalong with strong wind to at least 45 mph.* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 4 to 10 inches, along witharound a tenth or two tenths of an inch of ice.
  10. Up to 7.5". 3" per hour rate for the last 40 min, even mixed with sleet at times. I have never in my life seen aggregates like this - they're literally 3-4" across. After the changeover to sleet for an hour plus, I thought we were dead. Now it's fun again, even if we don't get to a foot.
  11. So, 20 minutes later, we go from 6.5" to 7.5". 3" per hour rate for the last 40 min, even mixed with sleet at times. I have never in my life seen aggregates like this - they're literally 3-4" across. Wife took a few pics, but not sure if they'll come out - will try to post later.
  12. How much in Croydon? A guy I know always says nothing falls there and it's way less than surrounding areas - said you guys got <1" last Friday.
  13. I've given up trying to predict this storm, but I just shoveled for the 2nd time today in the middle of 20 minutes of maybe the heaviest snow, especially with regard to giant half-dollar sized aggregated flakes, I've ever seen. Was about 5.5" when it started (sleet had compacted the 5.5" of snow I had before that) and was 6.5" 20 min later - that's 3" per hour. Now back to a 50-50 mix of snow/sleet, but very heavy. Maybe we can get to 12" here if this keeps up.
  14. Pouring snow right now after mostly sleet for an hour or so. Well, NWS in Mt. Holly finally spoke up and hasn't given up, although they decreased snowfall amounts, as per below. Here's what hte NWS just said: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 720 am: We are holding warnings as is for now though probably downgrading blizzard in monmouth. Just had 49 kt se wind gust from wxflow near Wallops Island around 650A. Tremendous fluxes developing right now as the storm will begin realizing its excessive potential both in terms of wind, probably coastal flooding and a band 3"/hr snowfall rates as a band of seems to be developing fm vcnty chesapeake bay which will extend north through Reading up to MPO by Noon. Will not surprise to see northward sleet mix collapse sewd twd I-95 next 3 hours as the abv freezing layer near 850MB cools, partly by excessive uvm. remainder below from 630 am... Major coastal storm will continue to track northeast along the mid- Atlantic coast today. The 00Z models trended further west with the track, and this is also verifying per WPC/MSAS analysis. Surface observations coupled with 88D`s indicate the changeover line moving north into the I-95 corridor, with snow changing to sleet in Philly as of 07Z. This line is expected to straddle the NJ Turnpike/I-95 corridor through late morning, then move east into the afternoon. This will lead to quite a variability in snowfall across our region, with a sharp gradient in the vicinity of the NJ Turnpike/I-95. Our latest forecast has reduced snowfall amounts south and east of here, generally by 1-3 inches, with little change to the north and west. As a result, we have converted the Winter Storm Warning to a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of southern NJ/Delmarva. The Blizzard Warning remains in effect for portions of eastern PA and northern NJ, where a very high impact event is unfolding. Further east along the Atlantic oceanfront, the High Wind Warning remains posted. The snow will gradually taper down south to north late this afternoon and into this evening.
  15. Finally lost the sleet battle for now. Mixture of mostly sleet and some snow.