Welcome to American Weather


  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About RU848789

Profile Information

  • Gender
  • Location:
    Metuchen, NJ (about a mile WNW of NJ TPK exit 10 in Edison)
  1. I'm sure this is banter, but I find it odd that the NHC does not mention what this storm's name would be if it became a TS. At least not anywhere I noticed. Looking at the list of names, Nate would be next. I have to say, however, that someone on Wikipedia is really on the ball, as TD16 is already on the active list of storms. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season
  2. deleted, wrong thread...
  3. Anyone looking at Saturday's weather? Find it very odd that most of the models, except the Euro, show the cold frontal passage on Saturday to be dry, wheras the Euro has 1/2" of rain over much of the Philly-NYC corridor during the day. NWS in Philly and NYC appear to not be buying the Euro, as their official forecasts are dry, although the AFDs acknowledge some risk of a few showers. Not sure if this goes in banter or not, but thought I'd ask here first.
  4. I'm amazed that on this board, where people will grasp at straws on a JMA run or post graphics from the North Korean model if they show snow, in the winter, nobody has posted the 12Z CMC model run, which shows a hit on the Outer Banks at 120 hours. Sure, it's an outlier and unlikely to verify, but clearly that model is seeing something the others aren't, presumably with the effect of Jose on the WAR and Maria's response to that. Anyway, here are the 120 hour graphics from the Euro, GFS, and CMC. Discuss.
  5. The "advantage" of keeping windows and doors open during a hurricane is a persistent myth...don't do it. https://www.inverse.com/article/36275-opening-window-hurricane-physics
  6. The NHC has gone with a 50/50 blend of the Euro (shown below at 96 hours) and GFS as of 5 am - see the track below - the NJ coast is no longer within the cone. And just for giggles, 96L shows up on the Euro at hour 240 as a sub 950 mbar hurricane on the doorstep of the Outer Banks, while the GFS has a sub 940 mbar storm striking around Jacksonville at hour 228.
  7. Stop with the Sandy comparisons. In no way, shape or form is Jose going to be anywhere near the monster that Sandy was, with the lowest barometric pressure of a landfalling hurricane (yes, it should've never been declassified as extratropical right before landfall, if only for emergency response reasons) at 940 mbar. Even the roided up GFS today only has Jose between 950-960 mbar as it reaches 40N near NJ/NY, while last night's Euro was more like 970 mbar. Sandy also had the 2nd highest integrated kinetic energy at landfall of any landfalling hurricane in the satellite era in the Atlantic. Sure the max winds weren't Andrew's 160 mph+, but Sandy was much larger and its overall storm energy was much greater than Andrew's, which is why Andrew had a catastrophic impact on only a small area, while Sandy had major to catastrophic impacts (especially storm surge) over a much, much larger area. Jose is no Sandy - the only thing that could look similar is the track (but not the impact) if Jose makes a NW move into NJ/NYC, which his not anticipated. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/sandy-packed-more-total-energy-than-katrina-at-landfall/2012/11/02/baa4e3c4-24f4-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html?utm_term=.4263a0922f39
  8. Correct. The weak remains and low probability of another such loop in the very long term are why I didn't even include that as a possibility in my email updates on the storm. But here's Day 9, if curious...
  9. Yeah, it's another hit on Cape Cod, at hour 288, lol. Certainly stuff to track, at least...
  10. Surprised no posts on tonight's other global model runs - None of the GFS, CMC, or Euro shows Jose coming within 300 miles of the US east coast. Still a long ways out, but not looking like much of a threat.
  11. Sorry, didn't see the "forecast position" in the 2nd post - figured I was probably missing something...
  12. Don - either you have an error in here or I'm missing something. The posts were both made after the 11 am position was known, yet in the first post you say, U.S. Landfall: 30% No U.S. Landfall: 70% And in the second post you say, U.S. Landfall: 56% No U.S. Landfall: 44% Can you clarify? Thanks.
  13. Respectfully disagree, as he's barely able to stand and one can barely stand in 100 mph gusts.
  14. 95 mph sustained winds and a 135 mph gust in Naples. Mike Bettes from TWC is live in Naples struggling to stay upright in this. Wild. And maybe a little crazy.
  15. jack - don't know if you saw my request for more detailed info/more frequent snapshots of the Euro than is available on TT, but this is exactly what I was looking for, with the ability to look at model output of many more variables in 3 hour increments. Simply awesome. Thanks!!!