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About RU848789

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    Metuchen, NJ (about a mile WNW of NJ TPK exit 10 in Edison)

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  1. RU848789

    March, 2019

    Don't need Don to tell you that climo says April snow is rare and given the less-than-stellar pattern forecasts beyond about 2 weeks this winter, I wouldn't get too caught up in what anyone says today about early April.
  2. RU848789

    March, 2019

    Well, the 12Z GFS, FV3, and NAM are all showing an inch or so for Friday late afternoon/evening (it better be after 4-5 pm if we want accumulations without heavy snow in March), while the CMC shows very little. The GFS, FV3 and CMC also all show some decent snowfall at the beginning of the Sat night/Sunday storm, with several inches possible well to the NW of 95 (like NW of 287/80 and N of the Tappan Zee), with the FV3 (of course, bringing decent snowfall the closest to the 95 corridor). So some mild interest in tracking these, although I doubt we get much from either system along 95.
  3. Yeah, a sample size of 2 is nowhere near large enough to make general statements about JFK getting more than LGA in early season systems. Also, for Nov-2012, at least in NJ, the snnowfall amounts were mostly related to precip rates, given marginal boundary layer temps, which is why eastern NJ (closer to the low and with more precip) got a lot more than western NJ and why parts of Monmouth/Ocean got the most (12" or more vs. 4-6" in along 95 and much less NW of there, as per the map). Also, for that storm, Bayside, close to LGA, got 7.9" and CPK got 4.7", so it's not like your 8" was much of an outlier - if I had to guess, southern locations in NYC probably did just a little better than northern locations for the same reason as in NJ - getting higher precip rates and nothing to do with temps. https://www.climatecentral.org/news/snowstorm-strikes-northeast-just-one-week-after-hurricane-sandy-15217
  4. I don't doubt that there have been probably many occasions where JFK does better than LGA in Nov, but your post implied that that is a general case, which would surprise me - do the long terms snowfall amounts for each reflect JFK doing better, on average, in Nov than LGA?
  5. Doesn't make sense to me - I would think the much warmer ocean, relatively speaking, in Nov would impact early season snowfalls near the water much more than it would in Match, when the ocean is at its coldest.
  6. Sounds about right. We got 6.0" in Metuchen, which is only a few miles S or SW of you guys. The "miracle" last night was how we barely mixed at all with sleet, yet areas only 10 or so miles S did and areas well to our NE, like LI and the southern NYC boroughs did, extensively. That line kept progressing towards us, mixed briefly a couple of times, but then would collapse back down south of the Raritan. Somewhat simillar to Saturday morning, when the sleet line parked right along or just south of the Raritan and we got 4.5" while folks in NB/EB got 1-2" of mostly sleet. Up to 24" for this winter.
  7. Looks like I missed posting my 2 am measurement of 5.75". After that, I dozed off for a bit and judging by the radar, we had one last band come through around 3:30 am and I just measured at 4 am and we have 6.0" on the nose - given the fairly heavy, wet nature of the snow, based on past history, I'm guessing it'll compact about 5-10% before sunrise (which is why I always like to measure close to the end of the event). Temp is still 32F. Looks like this one is over. Now I need some real sleep.
  8. Just got back in again from another walk around. As of 1:15 am we're up to 5.25", as I think we're getting a little compaction from the heavy wet snow (expected to have at least 5.5" then, given rates). Probably another hour of snow...
  9. So, just got in from shoveling in the midst of moderate to heavy snow. As of 12 am we have 4.5" of new snow, so 0.75" over the last hour. The sleet made 2 more runs at us, getting as far north as the Raritan, but apart from 5-10 minutes of mixing about an hour ago, it keeps collapsing back to our south (thank you rates). Fluctuating between 31 and 32F. Pouring snow again, since I came inside. I love shoveling in the absolute dead of night with heavy snow falling. It's almost incomprehensibly beautiful out there right now, especially with the light rain and then wet snow, combined with little wind collaborating to allow everything stick to the trees. If you haven't yet, get outside and go for a walk. 
  10. We really lucked out yesterday and tonight. Assuming no more sleet, I think we make it to 6" pretty easily and maybe 7" if we get any backbuilding or pivoting as the low goes by (it's off of Cape May now. Feel bad, though, for all the folks SE of 95 in SE PA/SNJ, who have mostly gotten 1-3" due to mixing and had their warnings downgraded to advisories, as per below. National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1242 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Low pressure was centered about 100 miles off Cape May around midnight. The low will continue deepening and moving to the northeast. It should pass off Cape Cod shortly after daybreak. The back edge of the precipitation extended across the Susquehanna River Valley in Pennsylvania, as well as central Maryland around midnight. It will continue to work its way eastward, moving across our forecast area between 2:00 and 5:00. Snow will continue in much of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. The mixed precipitation and rain in northeastern Maryland, Delaware, extreme southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey will change to snow before ending. The north wind in our region will back to the northwest, bringing additional cold air into our area. Snowfall totals to the northwest of the Interstate 95 Corridor should be mostly in the 4 to 8 inch range. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for that area until 7:00. The Winter Storm Warning has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory along the Interstate 95 Corridor south of Trenton, as well as in the northern coastal counties of New Jersey. Snow and sleet totals there should be generally 1 to 3 inches.
  11. Holy crap under 40 dBZ blob right now and it's pouring snow. Won't last too long, but wow. As of 11 pm, we had 3.75", so 1" in the last hour, which is a nice increase. 32F still here in Metuchen. Sleet line looks to be almost at the Raritan now, though. Make it stop.
  12. Interesting. Do you think it will make it to the Edison area (287 in Middlesex County) and if so for how long? Won't hold you to it, just curious on your input. And why do you think it will progress further north from the City on eastward?
  13. As of 10 pm, we have 2.75" of new snow, with another 1/2" this past hour - a little less than I expected at this point, but with heavier snow just starting and looking to continue for a few hours, so I think we'll at least make it to 6", as long as that friggin' sleet line doesn't make it this far north - and if it does, there's going to be hell to pay, lol. Abolutely ripping here now - heaviest snow of the night with <1/4 mile visibility - has to be >1" per hour now (really heavy stuff started about 10:15 pm).