RU848789

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    Metuchen, NJ (about a mile WNW of NJ TPK exit 10 in Edison)

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  1. Close call for downeast Maine on the Euro...
  2. Did you see my original post? The "wow" was inside the report by accident so I at least moved it outside of the report, lol...
  3. Wow... 000 WTNT64 KNHC 160555 TCUAT4 Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 100 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...SALLY CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN, A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS COMING OUT SHORTLY... Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Sally's maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 mph (165 km/h). Further strengthening is possible, and a Special Advisory will be issued within 15 minutes in lieu of the intermediate advisory to update the intensity forecast. SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 87.8W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart/Blake
  4. Going to give it one more try - posted the above at 5 pm asking why the storm surge forecasts are lower to the east of the storm's likely track than to the west and that continues with the 11 pm map of storm surge, although they did lower the forecast surge from 7-11' to 6-9' west of Ocean Springs MS to the Mouth of the Mississippi in LA, but even 6-9' is more than the 4-7'/2-4' surges east of the track. Surely someone out there must know more about surges (I mentioned a couple of things in the post above, but not sure if they're correct). Anyone?
  5. Any storm surge experts here? Surprises me with a MS/AL landfall that the surge east of there in AL (6-9' to Mobile Bay and only 4-7' from there to the AL/FL border) and even extreme NW FL (only 2-4') isn't greater than to the west of the storm in SE LA and SW MS (7-11'). Maybe that's because of the slow approach, which will have east to west winds for many hours as the storm crawls to the east of those locations with 7-11 surges predicted - maybe also topographical features in play here.
  6. Nice. Inspired by the song "People Everyday," by Arrested Development?
  7. Good find. Way too many people making early, inaccurate calls on the storm surge. I made the following post on a non-weather board to refute the rabble rousers calling this storm a weak underperformer, based on flawed storm surge analysis. Forgive the obvious details as it wasn't intended for this audience, but hopefully it gets the point across. Heck, even seasoned meteorologists are making crappy claims about this, as per the article in the link (I commented on that one too). The met who posted the article had no surge data from Cameron (11') to Vermillion Bay (11' - which was actually on the high side of their 8-12' prediction) 70 miles east - not having any data points where the worst surge would have been expected is very misleading The NHC needs to publicize this issue a bit more to show that the forecast was damn good. https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2020/08/28/where-was-lauras-storm-surge/ The storm surge in the Cameron area, where the Laura made landfall, was "only" about 10 feet, but that's not a surprise, since the worst surge will usually be 10-20 miles or so east of the center of the storm, given the wind direction being generally east to west and not on-shore where Cameron was - east of there, the winds near and at landfall would've been largely out of the south, directly on-shore, bringing the worst surge. The worst surge recorded to date was in Grand Chenier, about 15 miles east of Cameron, with a recording of 17 feet, which was right in line with the 15-20 foot predictions east of the storm's center. The reason Cameron and Lake Charles, inland, didn't get the worst surge was because Laura actually made landfall about 10-15 miles east of where it was forecast to make landfall right up until 5-6 hours before landfall. If you look at the storm surge map, the 15-20 foot surge prediction started at Johnson Bayou, which is about where landfall was predicted, about 5 miles east of the TX/LA border - the landfall near Cameron was about 10-15 miles east of Johnson Bayou. That little jog east might've saved dozens of lives and many structures from Cameron to Lake Charles, as a 10 foot surge is obviously much less than a 20 foot one - and almost nobody lives east of Cameron for a ways in LA. Even with only a 10 foot storm surge, the destruction in the video is pretty bad, although it should be noted that much of the construction was new, post-Rita and much of it stood up to 10-foot storm surge and 150 mph winds - pretty amazing. The houses that got swept off their foundations were more likely those not built on high enough stilts.
  8. 2 minutes off, lol...must be absolute hell for those few folks who remained...
  9. Any second now for official landfall...
  10. Yeah, but if you're 40+ miles from the track and getting 75 mph winds or less, a tornado is a big deal...
  11. Similar to last night: UK/GFS around 955-960 mbar at landfall and the Euro down to 935 mbar at landfall (was 941 24 hours ago and it moved east a fair amount) The Euro drops from 967 to 944 from 12Z to 18Z later today - that's just nuts. That's a serious Cat 4. Will it be right? Seems to have support from a couple of the hurricane models.
  12. Big pressure differences between the Euro and the other globals, as the Euro shows 937 mbar, the UK 959 mbar, the GFS 957 mbar and the CMC 969 mbar right around landfall. I don't know enough about these models and their pressure biases to know how big of a deal this is - let's hope for the sake of the people in TX/LA that the Euro is overdone - we don't need a calamity on top of COVID. All of them show landfall between Galveston and the TX/LA border.
  13. Just to add a few more... 0Z GFS has landfall just about 20 miles east of the TX/LA border, in the Sabine National Wildlife Refuge (almost due south of Lake Charles), as a 957 mbar storm, probably 2-3 hours later than the UK, i.e., 3-5 am Thursday. 0Z GDPS (CMC) has landfall just about 20 miles NE of Galveston/30 miles SW of Port Arthur, as a much weaker 986 mbar storm, in the 1-2 am Thursday timeframe. For what it's worth, the 0Z NAM has almost the exact same landfall location as the CMC at about 4 am Thursday, but as a 973 mbar system. And finally, the Euro has a 941 mbar cat 4 (likely) monster making landfall about 10-15 miles NE of Galveston. Yikes. So we have the GFS, UK, and Euro all within 15 mbar of each other and within about 70 miles of each other at landfall, which seems to be pretty decent agreement 54 hours or so before landfall and the Euro/UK are even closer together and with them being the two best models, that's a serious concern for the NE coast of TX and the SW coast of LA.
  14. You can close the thread after this post, lol - this really cracked me up - you could use the same meme for the small asteroid that might hit us the day before election day... https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/22/us/asteroid-earth-november-2020-scn-trnd/index.html
  15. To me it's much more about the precip shield being displaced by 25-35 miles NW, not that the forecast amount of rain didn't fall and the key reason for the displacement was that the storm center ended up 25-30 miles NW of where it was predicted to be even as of last night and the heaviest rain was always forecast to be along and NW of the track. The storm track was about 20 miles NW of the Delaware River in SNJ/SEPA vs. a forecast of being 5-10 miles east of the river last night and more than that a day ago. Isaias went right over Doylestown PA, when it was supposed to be closer to about Bordentown and is now around the far NW corner of NJ vs. heading towards about Ringwood. If you took that precip map and moved everything SE about 30 miles, that was the forecast we had last night with most near 95 and NW of there getting 3-6" and coastal areas getting 1-2". Fairly significant late track miss, as track errors are typically +/- 25 miles at 12 hours out; track was even a bit further east at 5 pm yesterday. Winds were forecast quite well, as max gusts look to mostly be 60-70 mph, not the 80-90+ some were touting based on a couple of models last night.