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RU848789

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About RU848789

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    Metuchen, NJ (about a mile WNW of NJ TPK exit 10 in Edison)

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  1. RU848789

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    36 and rain in Metuchen - radar shows snow to my north, west, and south...
  2. RU848789

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    Final nail in the coffin for this storm for the 95 corridor. NWS downgraded snowfall accumulations even further with a Blutarsky-esque 0.0" of snow for the 95 corridor from Philly to almost NYC. The odd thing is it certainly looks like we might get up to an inch along the 95 corridor, just looking at the radar trends. I know many of us joked about the Friday event being more than today/tomorrow - well it's looking like my 0.75" will likely be more. All that tracking for this, wow. Oh well. Good luck to all of you in the advisory/warning areas - hope this overperforms for all of you. 
  3. NWS backs off more, as warnings were converted to advisories for Morris, Warren, Lehigh, Northampton, and Berks in the Philly CWA and for Essex and eastern Passaic in the NYC CWA. In addition, WWA's were dropped for Middlesex and Western Chester, as snowfall amounts were cut again, as per the map.
  4. RU848789

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    Hey, I came close. NWS did scale back snowfall predictions, substantially, and converted that southern tier of watches to advisories for Upper Bucks/Montco, Hunterdon/Somerset and Union/Essex/Hudson and NYC/LI for a general 1-3"/2-4" of snow and a llight glaze of freezing rain, followed by 1-1.5" of plain rain as temps go above 32F, which should wash away any frozen precip, leaving minimal flash freeze risks (just puddles). I''m still concerned we get almost no frozen precip in this Advisory tier, including my house, given the model outputs showing that, but we'll have to wait and see. They also retained warnings for all the counties that had warnings, but didn't add lower Bucks/Montco and Mercer, to the advisory list, however. The warning areas should have a wild mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain (for the southernmost warned counties; the ones further north might not see any plain rain) - all of these locations will likely have significant slushpack when it's all done around noon tomorrow, which will flash freeze by late afternpon, as temps drop like a rock into the single digits by overnight and struggle to hit 15F on Monday. They're predicting <1" for areas SE of 95 in CNJ and for near and just S of 276/195 (but zero is a good possibility), with all rain predicted at the coast. See the new maps below - still waiting on the NWS-NYC maps. Could still be some surprises with this storm. Stay tuned.
  5. RU848789

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    So, obviously, the NWS didn't budge from their bullish forecast after the 12Z models for reasons they did explain, despite all of the models, except the 12Z NAM, showing markedly warmer and less snowy solutions, with none of them showing more than 1-2" from Trenton to NYC and most of them showing no snow for that corridor, as well as most of them not showing warning criteria snows in their southern tier of counties with watches. I can understand that, given the uncertainty in forecasting and wanting to maintain continuity and not be seen as flip-flopping with the models. However, given the significant further reductions in modeled snowfall from all the major globals and mesoscale 0Z models that I saw (vs. 12Z), I wonder if they'll reduce their snowfall forecasts for most of their areas (especially near/along 95) and scale back those southern tier counties that now have watches to advisories (Upper Bucks/Montco, Hunterdon/Somerset and Union/Hudson/NYC/LI). Only the 0Z NAM still has warning level snow (snow + sleet all counted as 10:1 snow, really) modeled for these counties (or at least parts of them) with 1 or 2 other models (UK/FV3) showing the far northern parts of some of these counties with close to 6", while the Euro, GFS, CMC, HRDPS and RGEM all show all of these counties with much less than warning criteria snows. It would certainly look odd if they didn't, at least to me, and I've heard other mets wondering the same thing. I'd also probably add Middlesex, Mercer and lower Bucks/Montco to the Advisory list, even though no models show advisory snow/sleet for those counties, overall, but it wouldn't take a big shift SE or stronger CAD to get them into advisory criteria. I'm not trying to "bash" the NWS, as I'm usually one of their biggest fans, but that doesn't mean they can't be questioned. I also find it fun to try guess what they're going to do next. I guess we'll see in about 2 hours.
  6. RU848789

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    And the UK track remains the same, so it'll likely show a repeat of the small snow accumulations for the 95 corridor, plus the Euro went slightly warmer/wetter again - in fact, it registered a Blutarskyesque 0.0" of snow from Trenton to NYC. Ouch.
  7. RU848789

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    And the 0Z GFS a bit warmer/wetter that 18Z. As is the 0Z CMC. Snow north of 80 is at risk, now, if these models are correct. If.
  8. RU848789

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    Actually, most of that "snow" on the NAM (with sleet version) is sleet and as per PW, there's also quite a bit of ZR showing for the sleet-fest areas. Still blows away a cold rain.
  9. RU848789

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    Wonder how much of it is them being gun-shy from the Nov debacle and erring on the side of caution. I prefer accuracy over risk management.
  10. RU848789

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    Completely wrong on my part. I must say, I was questioning them strongly for 24 hours before 11/15, as they were ignoring the snowy models then and took too long to adjust and I'm afraid they're in store for that again. But they're the pros and I'm not... https://www.weather.gov/PHI
  11. RU848789

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    The NAM stands alone still; maybe moved 10 miles NW with the transition zone from nada to alotta...
  12. RU848789

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    Given WPC declaration of the 12Z NAM being an outlier (now confirmed with the Euro remaining warm/wet), I'd be surprised if the NWS doesn't drop the winter storm watches from the southernmost counties under them right now, like Upper Montco/Bucks and Hunterdon/Somerset from the NWS-Mt. Holly and Union/Essex (maybe)/Hudson/NYC/LI from the NWS-NYC. I could see those locations getting winter weather advisories, since some snow/sleet is still being modeled (a few inches not up to 6"). The next tier N and W might stay watches or could be converted to warnings if they have high confidence in getting to 6" for most of their areas. Or maybe they have different assumptions and they won't budge (or at least not yet), since it's not only about models (they do have access to advanced data analysis and diagnostics tools that the public does not). Just my opinion...
  13. RU848789

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    Awesome point, thanks! Question for you: obviously, meteorologists, especially those in the local NWS offices, know a lot more about meteorology (and sometimes their areas) than the vast majority of non-pros who post here and elsewhere and that we should assume that they're not just basing their forecasts on model output or even consensus model output. Do I have that right? I assume that what you just posted and presumably many other diagnostic and data analysis tools either aren't available or are rarely used by most posters on weather boards and that it's safe to assume the NWS and other pros have a lot more at their disposal when making a forecasts. #hopingtheNWSiscorrect...
  14. RU848789

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    meant to reply to purdue, sorry...
  15. RU848789

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    Where's the "hate" button, lol. The 12Z NAM is the last best hope of WWW's everywhere...
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