RU848789

Interesting to see Lee Goldberg's first "guess" (he said it was a model run he agreed with, but his first forecast will be out tomorrow), which I think is reasonable and WxRisk's first guess which seems very aggressive and based heavily on the 18Z Euro. I'm also still stunned by the NBM being so high - and it has been cut down significantly since 18Z (maybe from the ensembles being still snowier than their Ops). With the 0Z Op models all showing very little snow in our region, except for far E LI (and except for the stubborn Euro still showing an inch for the NJ coast and a few inches for E LI), I wonder if we'll finally see the NBM really come down and DT cut back on his totals (and maybe even Lee). Same thing with the probabilities for 4" from the storm in the NWS graphic below, which seem very hight. Sucks to see so much potential likely being unrealized, but I did just get 19" worth of "snow" (as frozen snow/sleet mass), so it's hard to complain too much. On the other hand, we're still 3.5 days out, and it wouldn't take a monumental shift to at least bring a few inches to 95, so you never know.

Hey @mgerb- curious if you have any feedback from NWS folks or any comments on my long post above outlining my rationale. TIA.

And the NBM got a little snowier over the last 3 runs and is still way snowier than any model for reasons I don't understand given the inputs - maybe someone here has hacked it?

Don - as you know, the NBM is time lagged and in the last 24 hours there were some bigger runs of models that show little to no snow now, like the Euro/AIFS. I don't know how far back they go, though, but it sure looks like a blend of all the models most look at wouldn't be showing more than an inch or two for 95 vs. 6" in the NBM. I recall last week the NBM was consistently showing 12-18" for our whole region through 48 hours before the storm (when most models were showing less and decreasing), which informed the NWS-Philly's 12-18" forecasts at that point - but then the NBM dropped a decent amount over the next few runs, such that the NWS stepped down several times from 12-18" to the 7-11" amounts they had for most right before the storm. It's hard for me to imagine, right now what is causing the NBM to currently be so high. I'm not saying the models can't shift back in such a highly volatile setup, though, especially as we saw a shift north of about 150-200 miles from about Day 5 to Day 3 last week (and it kept going north).

Yes, I know that's what CoCoRaHS recommends, which I disagree with and I'd rather follow the recommendations of Bill Syrett, head of PSU's esteemed weather observatory for decades. For me the issue with sleet, in particular, is that when it falls on top of snow it will always compact that snow. I had 11.8" of snow/sleet combining my separate measurements of 3.5" of sleet and 8.3" of snow before that, but that was 10.8" just measuring depth which is significant compaction, whereas if they fell in reverse order I likely would've had about 11.8". I'd rather have a system that gives the same measurement independent of order. Furthermore, IMO, the meteorological community has always wrongly been focused on snow depth with forecasts/outcome, when their job is to convey impact and risk and frozen mass does a much better job of that than measured depth. As a result, sleet, which has the same mass as snow for a given QPF, is greatly underestimated for impact based on depth. For example, 3" of sleet at 3:1 has the same mass as 9" of 10:1 snow and i would argue they have the same impact with regard to transportation/driving and shoveling/plowing, where anyone who removes snow knows that mass is the key, not depth. In addition, sleet melts far more slowly than snow, given its much lower surface area to volume ratio (as melting only occurs at the surface not in the interior). Given all of that, I'd rather not discount sleet even further by reporting a compacted depth which doesn't convey the true impact of that precipitation and going further, I think a way needs to be found to use frozen mass as the measure of impact not depth, but I know I'm probably just howling at the moon. At the very least, though, the NWS and media mets could do a much better job of conveying the impacts from sleet, educating the public that sleet is ~3X more dense than snow, such that each inch of sleet has the same mass as 3" of snow. One more point. While the NWS recommends the public to only measure once every 24 hours, that kind of makes no sense to me, since their instructions for measuring snow at NWS sites is to measure every 6 hours, clearing the board after each measurement and summing the 4 totals for the final total. I think they only ask for one measurement per day from the general public so they don't turn everyone off from measuring snow (who wants to measure 4X a day other than weenies like folks on weather boards or those paid to do so). And if every 6 hours is good enough for the NWS sites, it's good enough for me - and note that in yesterday's case, using the NWS approach, I would've measured 2" of snow at 7 am, 8.3" of snow at 1 pm, when it changed to sleet, so I would've cleared the board, and at 7 pm I would've measured 2.9" of sleet and another 0.6" of sleet at 1 am for a total of 11.8" snow/sleet, which is what I got by simply clearing the board once around 1 pm when the sleet started. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.weather.gov/media/coop/Snow_Measurement_Guidelines-2014.pdf

But wait, there's more. We got 1/4" of snow overnight, bringing our total up to 12.0". I feel beat up after yesterday after shoveling ~18" worth of snow (3.5" of sleet has the mass of 10.5" of 10:1 snow and we had 8.3" of snow that was probably about 12:1 or ~7" of 10:1 snow). And driving wise, as I showed last night, driving on sleet is probably worse than on snow as it slides more easily, plus it melts more slowly. My 12.0" is higher than most in my area, but that's because I followed meteorologist Bill Syrett's (from PSU's renowned weather lab) guidance to measure the sleet separately to avoid compaction (would've been 11.0" just measuring depth); until this storm I've been lower than folks in Metuchen and Edison this winter.https://theconversation.com/how-is-...-how-volunteers-tally-up-winter-storms-175628

Sleet finished up around 9:15 pm and we added 0.2" more sleet for 3.5" total sleet + 8.3" snow for a grand total of 11.8" (unless we get some light snow overnight, which is possible), exceeding my 10.1" guess which I actually thought was aggressive yesterday morning, lol. Season total is up to 29.3", which is more than an average winter (about 28" in NB) and we have a lot more winter to go with plenty of cold air over the next 2 weeks and a few chances for more snow. Just reached our high temp for the day of 20F. My 4th and last shovel of the last 2" of dense sleet was tough - gonna sleep well tonight.

Sleet finished up around 9:15 pm and we added 0.2" more sleet for 3.5" total sleet + 8.3" snow for a grand total of 11.8" (unless we get some light snow overnight, which is possible), exceeding my 10.1" guess which I actually thought was aggressive yesterday morning, lol. Season total is up to 29.3", which is more than an average winter (about 28" in NB) and we have a lot more winter to go with plenty of cold air over the next 2 weeks and a few chances for more snow. Just reached our high temp for the day of 20F. My 4th and last shovel of the last 2" of dense sleet was tough - gonna sleep well tonight.

As of 8 pm, we have 3.3" of sleet since 1 pm (0.8" the past 2 hours, which is 2.4" worth of snow - still under heavy bands), which brings our total up to 11.6" of snow/sleet, so I think we're going to hit a foot, which I didn't think would happen once it changed to sleet with 8.3" of snow o the ground. It's up to 19F.And here's the embarrassing but life affirming thing that happened afterwards. In every storm, once the local roads are plowed I like to drive around a little just to see how the roads are and maybe to pick up something to eat. So I stopped at Wawa and then, when Mickey D's was closed, the lights at Popeye's were on, so I pulled in without realizing their parking lot hadn't been plowed, but with my Forester, I was going through it fine until I was about to merge onto Old Post Rd (Edison) and got stuck in a plowed bank I couldn't see well. D'oh!I went across the street to a gas station to ask for a shovel to borrow/buy and luckily the man working there (an Indian gentleman about my age) said he didn't have a shovel, but said we could use the windshield squeegee thing and came with me to help try to get me out which was fantastic. He and I dug the wheels out for 5-10 minutes and then I rocked it back and forth a few times and got free. I thanked him profusely and offered him $50, but he declined and said we all need good karma (he was Indian) and enjoys helping people and I said how I've done the same thing many times and he smiled and said the world needs more people who just help each other. So a ****** situation became a very nice moment. And I need to get shovels for our cars, lol.

Clear the board after a change from snow to sleet and combine the two measurements. I've gotten 2.5" of sleet after 8.3" of snow for 10.8", but undisturbed areas have about 10" right now, due to compaction (I have a crusty 2" from last weekend, so I can use the snow on top of that for a good measurement). https://theconversation.com/how-is-snowfall-measured-a-meteorologist-explains-how-volunteers-tally-up-winter-storms-175628

As of 6 pm, we've gotten 2.5" of mostly sleet since 1 pm (1/2" the past hour, which is 1.5" worth of snow as we've been under an intense band); that brings our total up to 10.8" of snow/sleet and we have a shot at a foot. 17F.

As of 6 pm, we've gotten 2.5" of mostly sleet since 1 pm (1/2" the past hour, which is 1.5" worth of snow as we've been under an intense band); that brings our total up to 10.8" of snow/sleet and we have a shot at a foot. 17F.

Just got in from shoveling a 3rd time, but this was the 2" of mostly sleet that have fallen since around 1 pm (6" worth of 10:1 snow by mass) and it was tough. So, between 3 and 5 pm we got 1" of pure sleet giving us 2" since 1 pm, when we had 8.3", so we're now at 10.3" of sleet/snow, besting my 10.1" guess. It's up to 17F and hoping no ZR in the last 0.4-0.5 QPF the HRRR says we'll get (mostly sleet) by midnight, but the HRRR is showing 0.1" ZR. What a storm!

Just got in from shoveling a 3rd time, but this was the 2" of mostly sleet that have fallen since around 1 pm (6" worth of 10:1 snow by mass) and it was tough. So, between 3 and 5 pm we got 1" of pure sleet giving us 2" since 1 pm, when we had 8.3", so we're now at 10.3" of sleet/snow, besting my 10.1" guess. It's up to 17F and hoping no ZR in the last 0.4-0.5 QPF the HRRR says we'll get (mostly sleet) by midnight, but the HRRR is showing 0.1" ZR. What a storm!

Having some fun making a snow angel. The closest my wife has come to going outside was taking this pic from the upstairs bedroom, lol.