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About mattb65

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Wheaton, MD

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  1. mattb65

    December 9/10 Storm

    Don't want to sound like a broken record but out to 72 hrs on the 00z GFS, mix of good/bad. More amplified ridge out west and slightly stronger SW but the confluence in the way is pushing down even more than at 18z and the trailing NS SW in the Dakota's still looks a touch too slow to be able to dive in and save the day.
  2. mattb65

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Much better than previous runs obviously but the NS sw that drops in has a sloppy phase, I wouldn't be surprised if the timing continues to improve showing a more clean phase given the trends over the last few runs.
  3. mattb65

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    GFS and CMC handle the NS SW significantly differently - at 138 the CMC has it much slower compared to the GFS so that it is above the great lakes, at 138 the GFS has it diving into upstate new york. The CMC allows the heights to amplify ahead of the SW where the GFS is beating them down to oblivion. NS tends to be poorly modeled at this lead so hard to say which will end up being closer to correct.
  4. mattb65

    November 15-16 First Frozen Obs/Nowcast

    Mix of snow/sleet in Bethesda, looks to be more snow than sleet at the moment. Already exceeds my expectations. PWS says 33/26 at home in wheaton/silver spring, should wet bulb to around 31.
  5. mattb65

    Michael Banter Thread

    Is your OPEN mind ready to issue a mea culpa for your ridiculous CAT 2 hot take?
  6. mattb65

    Michael Banter Thread

    Guess u were right all along. Can't wait for the next buoy pressure/wind tracing that SENC posts 80 miles outside the eyewall.
  7. mattb65

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Those were SE eyewall too, correct? That kinda data plus what we are seeing on radar may be enough to upgrade if the steady intensification we've been seeing continues. Not that a high end cat4 vs low cat5 means all that much difference in terms of impact.
  8. mattb65

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Definitely has the look, with the rate of pressure falls on the recent recon passes, ADT#s contributing to rise (currently an insane 7.4 raw) this cane definitely strengthening significantly. I wouldn't be surprised if it peaks tonight and begins an ERC though currently no signs of one starting yet.
  9. mattb65

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Nice graph, amazingly, it looks like CMC was the most accurate for this storm from 120 hrs out ... go figure. Guess a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.
  10. Solid first post, dude. Few tips - lay off capslock, makes you look uneducated/angry/weird. Also, the political stuff is even weirder. This is a private message board, the owners have every right to control the content. This also goes back to point one (looking uneducated) because you show that you don't really understand the constitution. Where do you live?
  11. mattb65

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Good point, I would have to see where we can pull the data but I believe the FV3-GFS was also very good and also showed a very similar landfall location to the ECMWF which has now verified. Good signs that the new GFS may be a significant upgrade in forecast accuracy.
  12. mattb65

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    On the first recon pass through the core, extrap central pressure was down to around 952. Wind speeds show a very broad field of hurricane force, ~60 knots in the SW side, 70s kt on the NE side w/ 90s at flight level, waiting for dropsondes to provide more details. Edit: Corrected the winds, accidentally had flight level winds Dropsonde shows 956 mb, so more or less holding steady state in terms of pressure and wind, basically confirming this is a giant category 1 cane.
  13. mattb65

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    ? The radar presentation is improving. The satellite presentation is showing intense convection wrapping around the core. The satellite estimated intensity (ADT) numbers are starting to rise. Might be a short term trend and it goes to crap when it gets over the shallower waters but anyone looking at this objectively would agree that it is currently strengthening.
  14. I dunno, the winds are spread out pretty uniformly if you look at recon data but possibly there will be stronger sustained if it doesn't weaken too much before the eyewall gets on shore. It's a giant category 1 with some category 2 strength winds in the eyewall - the widespread category 1 level winds should do a decent amount of damage though.