mattb65

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About mattb65

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    Kailua, HI

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  1. This point can't be emphasized enough and just to put the data out there, in the Pfizer vaccine trial 10 total cases of severe covid, 9 in the placebo arm and 1 in the vaccine arm, and in the Moderna vaccine trial 11 cases of severe covid all in the placebo group. Just to reiterate, once people in both vaccinations were fully inoculated, they prevented symptomatic covid by roughly 95% and there was additional protection against severe disease. For fever the rates of fever over 104 F in the Pfizer study was approximately 1 in 10,000 which was actually the same incidence in both the vaccine and placebo groups. Definitely a rare event.
  2. You have to take into account a lot of variables to have the numbers fall so rapidly with the most important being the priority vaccination of nursing home residents. This program alone can prevent up to 40% of covid related deaths and except for the most frail individuals, I don't see there being much vaccine resistance in this group. Similarly in the 65+ cohort, by May the majority of these individuals who elect to receive the vaccine should be vaccinated. Again when polls have been done that study vaccine acceptance, it is extremely high in this group for obvious reasons. Then there's the rest of the population over 18 with comorbidities for whom the vaccine should be available by May. Having these cohorts vaccinated with the best efficacy vaccines from Pfizer/Moderna will dramatically bring down the death rate. If there's wide enough distribution by May, vaccination alone could cut the death rate by 75% or more. I'm addition to vaccination, by May seasonal factors should also be favorable for reducing the natural reproductive rate of the virus. Combining these interventions could cut the death rate from where it is now at roughly 3500 daily deaths down by 90% in a realistic scenario 350 or by 95% in a best case scenario 175.
  3. Was a link to this thread posted on some dark cesspool of the internet filled with morons today? Angry summons got moderated yesterday, maybe he recruited his cabal of misinformed idiots
  4. It seems a little idiosyncratic, the second dose for me was just like the first - sore arm for about one day but a couple other people in my group felt a bit more under the weather for a day and needed to take some tylenol/motrin.
  5. Among the many problems with your posts is that you express certainty and present questionable and at times factually false information as if it is factual. You also never provide links to sources which is particularly important when you're putting forward more questionable information. This was particularly true when you were posting nonsense about the vaccines. It was always "I know a guy". And never more than that. You might be right that we are at the peak, you can see my post from yesterday expressing similar sentiments. But you need to look no further than the UK to see that they had a false peak before cases went out of control with the more contagious viral strain.
  6. I'll put forward a contrarian argument regarding national trends, it appears that we may be approaching a plateau in hospitalizations right around 130,000 which has held roughly for the past week. Test positivity also peaked about a week ago and appears to be leveling off or starting to drop. This could definitely still be a blip in the data but these are both signs that we may be at the peak. There is the risk that it is a false peak and the more contagious strain of virus could send the infection back to the stratosphere. There's also a race going on between virus and vaccine. I think even if the virus continues to run wild and I hope it doesn't, with the majority of the nursing home residents getting vaccinated by the end of this month we should hopefully see the daily deaths and infection fatality rate both dropping potentially dropping dramatically in February or March ( some of the timing is a matter of data reporting delays).
  7. They are all still someone's parent, grandparent, uncle, aunt, friend, brother, sister, husband, or wife. It is the leading cause of death right now definitely in the elderly and probably in all age groups except for those under 18. The callousness of how some talk about the scale of death and suffering caused by this virus is very sad.
  8. It may happen on the local level in some areas but not on a widespread basis imo. There are however many that would argue with the 1 in 7.2 number. Other data modelers like yyg at covid19-projections.com provides a dynamic estimate of this ratio and currently estimates it being closer to 1 in 3 which pegs the total infected at 72 million as of Dec 23rd which puts the number at 21% with a range of 15-32%. There are also additional uncertainty regarding the amount needed to obtain here immunity with Dr. Fauci recently edging the estimate closer to 70-80% especially in light of the more transmissible variant that is likely to become dominant going forward.
  9. Sorry for your loss, my condolences to you and your family.
  10. The death numbers look like they are still rising. Today in particular is terrible. The most reliable figure on tracking continues to be hospitalization data. Until it starts meaningfully dropping we can't confidently say cases are going down imo.
  11. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.21.20217174v1 What's the leading cause of death for those aged 25 to 44 in hard hit areas during the pandemic? - Most likely Covid. And this is before the winter surge occurred. 23% relative increase in death in this age range during the pandemic compared with the same period last year. These are the facts. IFR may be low for this virus in this age range but so is the IFR for almost everything for this age range. This age range mostly dies from things like accidents, drug overdoses, etc. Enough with your nonsense about this is only an old person's disease, the oldest suffer the worst of it and they are rightly being prioritized for the first vaccinations but make no mistake this disease is not one to be gambling with even if you're young and healthy. We have the means to safely vaccinate enough people to squash this virus to oblivion and we will.
  12. There's so sugar coating how bad the current wave of infections is. A 7 day average of over 2,500 deaths per day is hard to conceptualize. But as others have noted, all signs point to us beginning on what should be a long and sustained reduction in new infections and soon a reduction in daily deaths until the pandemic is finally contained. Evidence is clear that new cases are reaching a plateau, hospitalizations also appear to be nearing a plateau, deaths are still rising but in 2-3 weeks they should start to decline. With vaccinations starting to reach nursing home residents followed by those over 75, the rate of decline in deaths should accelerate as we move into late January/February. Hopefully by that point the vaccination will become more widely available so that the rate with more people vaccinated combined with seasonal changes hopefully we see the numbers declining enough to start removing a lot of the mitigation restrictions. I see a lot of reason for optimism despite the current terrible state of the situation.
  13. More facts coming out about the rate of anaphylaxis to the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine as well as the next steps to address it. So far 6 cases of anaphylaxis in 556,000 doses, just under 1 in 92,667 doses or a rate of 0.001 %. I'm sure all the people who have been on here falsely claiming that "99.997%" of people survive from Covid will say the same about the vaccine /sarcasm. The NIH plans to perform a study in high risk individuals to get more information and mitigate the risk. It's important to keep this adverse effect in perspective, 1 in 92,667 is very rare. Anaphylaxis is very treatable. Covid infection is far more deadly to all age groups than a serious but treatable vaccine reaction. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/covid-vaccine-allergic-reactions-study/2020/12/21/e01001d2-431a-11eb-b0e4-0f182923a025_story.html
  14. Not sure if you've been following but Covid-19 appears to hit pregnant women hard and has caused some tragic deaths and has been linked to an increased risk of preterm labor and miscarriage. The vaccine so far has proven safe and extremely effective. The rate ofserious but treatable allergic reactions whose rate is TBD but unlikely to be higher than 1 in 30,000 is almost certainly less than the risk of much less treatable serious illness, death or miscarriage for pregnant women who contact severe covid. So I can easily see how pregnant women would rationally choose to enter a clinical trial. They may also be doing it to help others though... There's also a lot of people out there who care about other people and participating in a clinical trial means those people are willing to make a sacrifice to help others. I'm not surprised that you consider selfless actions irrational. It confirms a lot about how you've carried yourself in this thread.
  15. I imagine the FDA here and the equivalent agency in the UK will be doing allergen skin testing in all of these individuals to identify which component of the vaccine is causing the reaction. The rate of anaphylaxis to other vaccines historically has been one per million and though it's early, based on how many doses of Pfizer's vaccine that have been distributed, it looks like the rate for this vaccine will probably be significantly higher. So long as these vaccines are given where treatments for anaphylaxis is readily available, the risk is manageable. With time hopefully they can identify the offending component of the vaccine and use an alternative.