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About mattb65

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  • Location:
    Kailua, HI

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  1. This virus is relentless and constantly waiting in the shadows to emerge if given even the slightest opportunity. Here in Hawaii we avoided the first wave but the second wave is upon us and our cases are rising the fastest of anywhere in the country. We were lucky to have started from a very low level of prevalence in the community but it's crazy how fast it can take off if left unchecked. The state has closed bars, pushed back school openings, pushed back plans to open tourism and now closed beaches and public parks. It's pretty disheartening. There's been a surge of hospitalizations that is rising quickly over the last week+. They are discussing another stay at home type order if we continue to have >50 cases a day on average but trying to implement as many measures that dont significantly impact businesses as they can before going further.
  2. Multiple problems with this perspective. Free interstate travel intertwines every state, we are only as strong as our weakest link with this virus. Repeatedly the public health side of this federal response says one thing i.e. reopening guidelines, and the political side of the federal response says there opposite, i.e. LIBERATE, Reopen, etc. Many states and especially those with Republican governors decided to reopen due to political pressures rather than public health science. I don't absolve states from responsibility but big picture, our failure at containing this virus is unique in the developed world and I think the primary reason is the politicization and misinformation running rampant.
  3. "LIBERATE" and reopen everything without following the gating criteria put out by the coronavirus task force. So many missteps. The federal response has been as bad as anyone could imagine, the federal response has literally sabotaged what could have otherwise gotten us on track. Being in an election year has probably made it worse.
  4. From the articles discussion "Our findings may provide an indication of potentially considerable burden of inflammatory disease in large and growing parts of the population and urgently require confirmation in a larger cohort. Although the long-term health effects of these findings cannot yet be determined, several of the abnormalities described have been previously related to worse outcome in inflammatory cardiomyopathies.2" It's definitely a concern and all the more reason to do whatever is feasible to put measures in place to contain the virus like every other developed country in the world. With vaccine data continuing to be promising it is incredibly foolish to continue to fail as a country at following the successful playbook we've seen done time and again around the world by the other developed countries.
  5. MD here, this information is readily available in table 1 of the study. There were two control groups to compare against the covid patients. Of 50 healthy controls, 3% had evidence of myocardial changes, of 57 risk factor matched controls, 40% had evidence of myocardial changes at baseline. Active inflammation is measured by T2 signal, 60% of Covid patients had active inflammation, 9% of risk factor matched controls. Also important to note, these MRIs were done approximately 2-3 months after infection. Reasonable conclusion would be that covid causes a significant increase in myocardial inflammation that persists for at least 2 months after infection.
  6. MLB did plan, they have a "taxi squad" to fill in for players that go down because of the virus. They are testing repeatedly to try and catch cases before they turn into an outbreak. The nature of this virus just makes team sports incredibly difficult to accomplish. The locker room is just too risky for easy spread, it's really unfortunate. Plus with teams flying around the country there's too many opportunities for a player or other employees to catch the virus and accidentally introduce it into the clubhouse.
  7. Thankfully it stayed on the north side of the cone, the hwrf did really well in the track of this one. The local forecast was way off on winds and rain. Forecast for 3-4 inches of rain and we got under 0.1", wind was forecast for gusts over 100 and we didn't gust higher than 30 mph.
  8. My latest point and click forecast has sustained winds up to 72 mph with gusts to 107 with winds gradually building between now and 6 pm local time. Probably overdone, I can't imagine it being that potent, based on the latest track I'm forecast to be just about 20 miles south of the center. Here's a link to my PWS ...
  9. For the last few hours it seems to be heading a bit more West than WNW, if the models are right it should wobble back NW soon unless I'm having weenie radar and satellite hallucinations.
  10. This hurricane has been pretty resilient in the face of lower SST and now shear with recon overnight finding 80 kt surface winds and 100 kt flight level winds. This is looking to track dangerously close to Oahu and Kauai, I'm hoping the stronger north side of the storm stays offshore but the latest discussion mentions the shear making the satellite presentation appear further north than the low level center of the storm based on recon. Forecast discussion: Also of extreme value is the fact that the low-level center is south of the apparent center seen in conventional satellite imagery, and closer to the islands than might be otherwise expected. Although island-based radars are also detecting Douglas' circulation, they are sampling the upper portions of the cyclone that are sheared northward due to southerly vertical wind shear. Anxiously waiting to see how it wobbles as it gets closer to mby this afternoon. I'm out on an exposed peninsula on East Oahu, I'll try to get some videos if things go sideways locally. Hoping to not lose power.
  11. It seems like there's a trend with each model cycle toward the north side of the cone to the point where it seems less likely that the big island will see significant impacts and it's possible the storm will even go north of the other islands as well. If it doesn't get far enough north, it raises the possibility for a higher impact event on Maui and Oahu as shown on the latest run of the HMON and on the 0z Euro. However the 12z GFS and Euro show the storm skirting just north of most of the islands, and with the core strength of the storm on its North side, this would be good news.
  12. Pretty darn impressive looking, probably at or near peak intensity.
  13. Technically the cone includes hits on any of the islands but the best track shifted north a bit to hit the northernmost tip of the big island and shoot the gap south of Maui and Oahu. It seems a question of how much latitude the storm gains before turning west. Unless things shift significantly, it's definitely looking like a strong TS hit for most of the islands.
  14. Yeah, looking pretty impressive and good conditions to strengthen. I'm closely following the track, ecmwf UK and HWRF has been missing the big island to the north which would significantly affect the local impact here in Oahu. Seems like a lot of the other models take a more direct course for big island which would shred it apart and weaken considerably before impacting the other islands. I live out in an exposed part of the windward side of Oahu so things could get interesting.
  15. Also, it appears that the number of cases, percent positive rate nationally are leveling off. Some of the hard hit states like Texas and Arizona are seeing their hospitalization numbers leveling off or starting to decline. Hopefully we see a longer term steady decline compared with the last time when things just got reopened recklessly and we had the big surge. The cases leveling off will hopefully help ease the testing shortages that have been impacting test results coming back in a timely enough manner. How the numbers change once K-12 schools and especially universities reopen to in person instruction will be the next stress test on containment in my opinion.