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mattb65

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About mattb65

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KIAD
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Wheaton, MD

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  1. mattb65

    February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

    Onset time 12z wed, more in line with other guidance on the 6z NAM (6 hrs slower than the 0z) still a big thump of snow to pingers, strong CAD wedge in place for this one.
  2. mattb65

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    Temps may cool enough overnight to flip Moco/Hoco back over to ZR based on 3K NAM, will have to wait and see how close to the beltway the freezing line sinks, 2M dews are below freezing as close as NW DC. Probably won't have a significant impact aside from some more icicles in the trees. Looks much more icy up near the MD/PA border though.
  3. mattb65

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    My wife had to drive up to PA and said the roads were a little dicey at times in baltimore Co and then snow covered once she got into PA with numerous people off the roads, pretty much bad roads where you'd expect them to be. I had no problems in MoCo at all, roads were fine.
  4. mattb65

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    Sleet line still racing north on radar but hints it maybe is starting to meet some temporary resistance around DC.
  5. mattb65

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    I don't have much hope for this event in my location besides brief frozen before the rain however, I wouldn't even look at the HRRR in this situation, it is going to push the boundary layer warming way too aggressively. It did it with the last event and will torch things too easily imo.
  6. mattb65

    February 10-12, 2019 Storm

    The 3k NAM is all wintry mix for areas just north of DC and has some cooling of the surface and midlevels in between wave 1 and wave 2 with sleet soundings shifting back to snow soundings for a time before the big push of warm air rolls in. Going to be a fine line between icy mess and 33 and rain for many.
  7. mattb65

    February 1, 2019 Clipper Snow

    Legit SN in Bethesda, Vis down to about 1/2 mile in this little band. Nice scene, not a bad week with 3 little snow events.
  8. mattb65

    February 1, 2019 Clipper Snow

    I saw a few rogue flurries on my walk in to work in Bethesda.
  9. mattb65

    January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

    3k drops the temp from 31 to 17 when the snow squall rolls through at 1pm through the DC metro, hope it's onto something.
  10. mattb65

    January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

    Dumping huge aggregates and 32.5 and dropping fast. Roads starting to slush up and traffic is a disaster as expected.
  11. mattb65

    January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

    If rates improve to the point where it's heavy enough to form a slushy accumulation, this is the rare situation where there could be a flash freeze since temperatures are set to fall pretty sharply once precip shuts off.
  12. mattb65

    January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

    One of the big risks for the metro areas is torching of the boundary layers - the most recent 11z HRRR gets BL wet bulb temps up into the mid-upper 30s in the DC/Balt metro before the onset of the more significant precipitation and thus we waste a significant amount of QPF to rain or non-accumulating snow. I've read on here that the HRRR has a bias of increasing BL temps during lulls but it's something to keep an eye on as a possible way that this event may fail in the metro regions. (11z even torches all the way to the MD/PA border so it would be a fail for everyone). 6z 3K NAM and HRDRPS keep wet bulbs down in the low 30s but RGEM is similar to the bad run of the HRRR.
  13. mattb65

    January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

    6z NAM twins appear improved compared to their priors, same with the 6z hrrr. It's hard to have much confidence in their outputs when scrolling on TT through their last 5-6 runs. They fluctuate significantly from run to run. General there continues to be d-2" near 95 and immediate DC metro, 2-4" in favored NW zones
  14. mattb65

    January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

    Assuming the timing on the NAM is correct, it seems there is a first wave favoring areas closer to the MD/pa line around 0900 with temps in the whole column supporting snow and supporting sleet mix closer to DC. Then the main chunk of snow comes in closer to 1300 which seems to be a speed up on terms of onset time and could cause pretty significant impacts on traffic assuming I'm reading the timing correctly. Boundary layer temps are 33 according to the 3k NAM in the DC metro so impact will depend on rates. Soundings clearly support snow as the ptype.
  15. Measured just a bit less than 2" on cold/elevated surfaces.
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