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About mattb65

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Wheaton, MD
  1. If you look at the recon passes there is a clear secondary wind max that is consistently present but the orientation of that outer band looks more like a spiral feeding in to the dominant inner eyewall at this time. This can all change quickly and i hope it does evolve into an ERC but i agree with you that there isn't clear evidence that the process has clearly started.
  2. Raw T#s were specifically mentioned in the NHC discussion and they are definitely pertinent to monitor as a pretty reliable sign of cyclone intensification or weakening. Raw T is still slowly rising as you mentioned. The drama yesterday was uneccessary. Likely this cyclone is still intensifying. The environment still looks ideal with only internal processes that could possibly lower max intensity until land interaction.
  3. Not surprisingly as the satelite appearance continues to improve the raw and adjusted adt is spiking. Next recon will almost certainly find a stronger system on its next mission. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt15L.html
  4. Surge into biscayne bay is rising quite a bit with high tide in the next couple hours. Also impressive is the amount of water being blown out to sea on the west coast stations. Naples is around 2.5 feet negative right now, going to be interesting to see how quick the surge comes in when the wind changes direction. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.shtml?type=active&region=Florida
  5. Hate to respond and further derail this thread but Katrina is the obvious case study for the question you keep posing.
  6. I live quite close to sligo creek which is specifically mentioned in the FF warning for MoCo and my house is close to the mini Wheaton/Glenmont jackpot from this initial band. I gave a heads up to my wife who is at home and will report if there is any flooding. When I head home I'll take pics if there is anything significant along sligo creek parkway.
  7. Very windy, ping pong sized hail in Bethesda. Came in like a wall of rain and hail
  8. Dumping snow in Wheaton/Kemp Mill area of silver spring, backyard thermometer says we are down to 29 and it's dumping. Measured ~1.5-1.7" on the back deck. Roads, side walks, grass are all completely covered. Edit: Shortly after I posted, the distinct sound of pingers on the window started, still more snow than pingers. CC says it washes out soon, we'll see.
  9. RGEM also shows it tracking from Ocean City to LI to over Boston, I'll believe it when I see it. Seems over-amped to me.
  10. I think these ZR predictions will be overdone and in reality it'll be mostly Snow/Sleet but IF the ZR ends up being true, and we get upward of 0.5" ZR after the front end wet snow then the tree damage and power outages would likely be pretty severe.
  11. Attached is the 12 hr QPF from Hr 48 to 60 which encompasses the vast majority of the storm for our area. This is a dream scenario if it unfolds like this. Absolutely 12 hours of insane 1-3" per hour type rates of heavy wet snow, wow.
  12. Love the march daffodil destroyers, with temps likely to hover right around 32, it should be amazing with snow stuck to everything. If qpf amounts rank back up there's definitely tree damage potential.
  13. Measured 1.5" here as well Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
  14. Measured 1" and snowing moderately stll. The radar looks like it might keep feeding into the area from the sw for another hour or so. Fingers crossed, psu mentioned the folks in the 0.25" can sometimes luck out and get into a deform band. This stuff is definitely high ratio dendrites too, good for maximizing qpf. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
  15. More please. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk