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About mattb65

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Kailua, HI

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  1. The low level cold is pretty robust and filtering in throughout the storm. This seems to be the recipe for a significant ice event for someone if it comes in ahead of the precip which seems to be the solution models are converging upon. Details on location TBD but seems to be CT up to Rt 2 is the corridor to watch. Hopefully it's IP and not ZR.
  2. That area down there on the other side of the coastal front and into the cape is probably going to have some serious tree damage and power outages with the pounding snow and temps in the 30s plus wind.
  3. I was a senior at BC for the Jan 2005 blizzard with drifting to 5 ft blocking the front of our dorm in the morning. Plenty of cars on Comm Ave turned into snow blobs. For Nemo I lived in JP and we had 4 ft+ drifts. If you get 20+ with these winds the drifts will be solid Edit: these are all at close to sea level so quadruple amounts for your elevation as others have noted. /s
  4. Lol I don't want to upset the weenies. Their inner weenie anxieties are high enough without someone living in hawaii bumping up the worst model. I remember going to bed with all the models showing flush hits and waking up the day before a storm with a couple of models pissing in the cheerio bowl. In reality, convective issues can happen and can steal moisture and screw around with cyclone development and precip distribution which is the one big wildcard that won't be sorted out until gametime.
  5. Winds and drifting are probably going to make it tough to measure accurately in this storm. Having said that, some of the soundings show an absurdly wide dendritic growth zone with huge lift especially in the deform band area. The ratios and rates for whomever gets lucky enough to get under this band will probably see extreme rates with high ratios. I can't recall too many storms where the snow depth maps are significantly more than the 10:1 ratio maps. Wishing I could be back in Boston for this one.
  6. Seems to me that the cone is just narrowing, GFS on the eastern side of the cone and NAM/Euro on the western side of the cone. Either track is possible and the two most likely outcomes are an E MA and Maine special or a more region wide impact. Even the eastern side has a mature cyclone, not some strung out POS so whomever is fortunate to be graced by the ccb or deform is going to be piling up lots of snow.
  7. You aren't going to have a 90% guarantee of 24"+ even with a perfect track. Too much uncertainty in where banding will set up to predict who gets 24"+ with that level of precision. I salute you for even considering pissing that many people off to chase a snow storm.
  8. Forecast was for 5-10" with lollis to 20" Up to almost 8" on the day, 9" on the event, still pounding and radar looks like this #firehose
  9. Don't worry, we've got your snow in Hawaii. .BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS... HIZ028-040215- /O.CON.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ Big Island Summits- 311 AM HST Fri Dec 3 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph.
  10. It's a little bit of a crap shoot when a big storm is going to blow up and send a swell but usually late Dec, Jan and Feb are prime. Last year late December had a 20 ft, 20 sec swell with waves completely closing out in Waimea Bay which doesn't happen often, and usually requires 40 ft+ faces. There were surfers paddling and towing in which I can't imagine. Haleiwa is a great town, really laid back. BTW, the storm sending the waves this weekend also triggered the first winter storm watch of the season for the big island but not the first snow. Current forecast is for up to 4 inches with SW winds of 50-80 G100 at the peaks of the big volcanos.
  11. @Ginx snewx i can tell from some of your posts that you love big waves, if you've never done it before you should book a trip to Hawaii in the winter for a big swell, there's almost nothing like it. I live next to this beach, expecting 25 ft bombs with light offshore winds https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Pyramid-Rock/forecasts/latest
  12. I think there's something messed up with the extrapolated pressure. Not just being a weenie. The dropsonde from the last pass measured 936 mb with 13 kt wind (extrap was around 945). There is no way the pressure has risen given the increased wind measured on this pass and satellite appearance to my eyes showing continued improvements.
  13. I've never seen a dropsonde pressure this much lower than the extrap. Is this legit? 935 mb on the dropsonde vs 945ish extrap. On TT it shows 952 mb as the pressure on the map but the dropsonde is the one below, I'm confused...
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