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About mattb65

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    Wheaton, MD

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  1. mattb65

    Michael Banter Thread

    Guess u were right all along. Can't wait for the next buoy pressure/wind tracing that SENC posts 80 miles outside the eyewall.
  2. mattb65

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Those were SE eyewall too, correct? That kinda data plus what we are seeing on radar may be enough to upgrade if the steady intensification we've been seeing continues. Not that a high end cat4 vs low cat5 means all that much difference in terms of impact.
  3. mattb65

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Definitely has the look, with the rate of pressure falls on the recent recon passes, ADT#s contributing to rise (currently an insane 7.4 raw) this cane definitely strengthening significantly. I wouldn't be surprised if it peaks tonight and begins an ERC though currently no signs of one starting yet.
  4. mattb65

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Nice graph, amazingly, it looks like CMC was the most accurate for this storm from 120 hrs out ... go figure. Guess a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.
  5. Solid first post, dude. Few tips - lay off capslock, makes you look uneducated/angry/weird. Also, the political stuff is even weirder. This is a private message board, the owners have every right to control the content. This also goes back to point one (looking uneducated) because you show that you don't really understand the constitution. Where do you live?
  6. mattb65

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Good point, I would have to see where we can pull the data but I believe the FV3-GFS was also very good and also showed a very similar landfall location to the ECMWF which has now verified. Good signs that the new GFS may be a significant upgrade in forecast accuracy.
  7. mattb65

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    On the first recon pass through the core, extrap central pressure was down to around 952. Wind speeds show a very broad field of hurricane force, ~60 knots in the SW side, 70s kt on the NE side w/ 90s at flight level, waiting for dropsondes to provide more details. Edit: Corrected the winds, accidentally had flight level winds Dropsonde shows 956 mb, so more or less holding steady state in terms of pressure and wind, basically confirming this is a giant category 1 cane.
  8. mattb65

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    ? The radar presentation is improving. The satellite presentation is showing intense convection wrapping around the core. The satellite estimated intensity (ADT) numbers are starting to rise. Might be a short term trend and it goes to crap when it gets over the shallower waters but anyone looking at this objectively would agree that it is currently strengthening.
  9. I dunno, the winds are spread out pretty uniformly if you look at recon data but possibly there will be stronger sustained if it doesn't weaken too much before the eyewall gets on shore. It's a giant category 1 with some category 2 strength winds in the eyewall - the widespread category 1 level winds should do a decent amount of damage though.
  10. I bet we see continued steady state or slight weakening in the short term with what looks like an ERC starting. Wouldn't be surprised to see the IR appearance start to degrade a bit.
  11. The catastrophic part is going to be multiple consecutive tide cycles with sustained onshore flow as well as stalled bands of extreme rainfall rates causing catastrophic fresh water flooding. The risk for severe wind damage is lessened by the stall scenario but the surge and fresh water flooding is significantly enhanced. The latter two tend to cause more risk to life and property compared with the former. Thus I think catastrophic is definitely warranted even if the landfall strength is lessened. It would probably be better if the storm just charged ashore and wound itself down quickly. As it stands it will die a slow death and maintain strength to some degree while it is still over water.
  12. mattb65

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Building West Atlantic ridge is currently steering it wnw and then nw to the coast. Right as it starts to try and turn the corner around the WAR and head north, a ridge building in from the great lakes blocks that escape causing it to stall in place and then start being pushed sw by these building ridges. That's the best I can explain it. Both the WAR and the ridge building in from the great lakes have been trending stronger hence the push southward in landfall and post landfall
  13. On the happy hour, drunk gfs. Looks like remnants of Florence loop around through the mid Atlantic and reform another TC that looks like it may turn back for another shot at the southeast coast.