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About mattb65

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    Kailua, HI

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  1. The numbers today are extremely bad, +10k already from last Saturday. No sign of this surge showing down at all, actually looks like it may be accelerating.
  2. Hawaii had it's first big wave of the virus in early August and we had a local "lockdown" which was really just a watered down stay at home order with most non essential businesses temporarily closed just like back in April. There were big differences though, the changes were applied to the island/county of Oahu only. We've passed the first threshold and started on the path toward reduced restrictions. The state has also simultaneously started a pretesting program for visitors to take a covid test and not require a 14 day quarantine. So technically you could say we went back to "lockdown" but it was on a local level rather than a state level. And it was more of a stay at home type deal. We're also unique for obvious reasons being a bunch of islands with controlled gates of entry so I don't think the way this state handles things can be applied more broadly to how other states will respond. I do think Wisconsin is the state with the most significant ongoing outbreak in terms of potential overrunning healthcare capacity and a need for more broad mitigating measures although the Dakota's aren't too far behind. I doubt there will be something like a stay at home in the Dakota's and Wisconsin has some challenges that are well publicized between the governor vs the legislature and judicial branch. Hard to say what the best strategy is to respond to these outbreaks and surges that are stressing local hospital capacity. The stay at home worked here in Oahu, our numbers are way down and tourism has resumed which should help the economy so hopefully it'll end up being a win-win, time will tell.
  3. 418,000 Americans died in WW2 over the course of roughly 6 years of combat. Over 215,000 Americans have died so far in less than a year of Covid with studies on excess death indicating the deaths from the direct and indirect effects of the virus exceed this number. Meme all you want. It's pretty heartless.
  4. You do understand the dosing for hydroxychloroquine is different from chloroquine, right? .... Right? You understand the UK study wasn't looking at chloroquine at all, right? Your concerns about toxic doses of a drug not even being studied makes you look like an idiot. You understand this? The drug doesn't work, it just doesn't, sorry. I prescribe hydroxychloroquine for a handful of neurologic diseases it can be a useful drug and generally well tolerated. It just doesn't work against covid. There isn't enough zinc and ionophore magic that you can wish upon it for it to work. Give it up. Move on.
  5. Just as a correction, there have been no RCT studies that have proven usefulness in any way for hydroxychloroquine. None. Not early, not during the inflammatory phase, not as a prophylactic. None. Never. No benefit. This dude popping in here criticizing the UK study that was just published in the nejm has no clue what he's talking about at all. He's completely wrong about their methodology and is equating the first of hydroxychloroquine with chloroquine. They are different drugs, dosed differently. Here's a link to the UK study
  6. These are all unfortunately joyous times in normal circumstances that you rightly point out will almost certainly drive increased spread of this virus. I made a post a little over a week ago predicting over 100k new cases a day by the end of this month and unfortunately feel this is likely to become reality. And this is before the holidays that you mention. I do think there will need to be some sort of policy response to the worst areas affected. I know the covid fatigue is strong at this point especially in some areas. Here in Hawaii, our county went back to stay at home type restrictions about a month ago due to a big spike in cases/hospitalizations and it bent back the outbreak significantly and have put forward a tiered opening plan with gates based on per capita daily infection and on % positive rate. The building outbreaks especially across the Midwest are going to be a big challenge because the message from the leadership in the federal government is still essentially anti restriction and let people do what they want. The task force and CDC have other recommendations but those are not being amplified by the president or VP Tough times ahead.
  7. That's the flight level, the surface some were still around 90 kt. Need dropsonde to get a better idea on the winds. Nevertheless recon verified what is obvious on visible and IR that the storm is clearly strengthening.
  8. This thread has consistently avoided the politics of covid up until the president got sick with the virus. I can't speak for the last few pages because inevitably politics have become a major point of discussion. It is very very very very very telling that an apolitical discussion about what is happening with the virus to you is a "giant echo chamber for the left". You've got some serious blinders on my friend.
  9. These items will help your health looking forward over the next couple years and beyond. If one hasn't been doing these things already then I am sorry to say that I doubt they'll have much impact if one contract Covids in the next month or two. It's never wrong to encourage those things but speaking specifically about Covid, the emphasis should be on what can help in the coming days/weeks/months.
  10. Early guidance on masking was filled with mixed messages and confusion. (Talking March/April). Since that time a scientific consensus has emerged that widespread mask usage has a myriad of benefits to include: 1. Prevents the infected individual from transmitting the virus whether they be presymptomatic, asymptomatic or symptomatic - remember many are unaware of their infection but still highly infectious for a couple days 2. Protects the person wearing the mask - there's a variance based on the type of mask in terms of how effective the mask is in terms of prevention but even double layer cloth masks at a minimum provide some level of prevention and also likely reduce the dose of virus that the wearer recieves which likely also reduces the severity of their infection These factors have been communicated pretty consistently since at least June however mask wearing has unfortunately been subject to widespread misinformation campaigns. These are good general advice for health and well being but there is no good evidence that any of these prevent covid infection. Diet, exercise, good sleep habits, stress reduction among a number of other factors are important for everyone to follow but not really relevant here. There's a lot of command and control happening behind the scenes that is not being communicated very well and there is a significant lack of transparency. There have been intermittent leaks of internal documents with the specific risk levels and recommendations provided by the task force to different localities. There should be a level of transparency from the federal government. There should be much better articulated best practices and overarching strategy coming from the federal government. There should be honesty and clarity about the facts. I could go on but all of this and more have been lacking from the federal government In fact, incredibly, the number one source of misinformation about this virus has come from the president.
  11. Absolutely, there are so many senior members of the adminstration who are at risk. The web of individuals potentially exposed in the Republican hierarchy could be pretty vast.
  12. The amount of contact the president was having in person with lots of different people and very few people wearing masks. It was a matter of time. That this happened a month before the election is insane. I know this isn't a thread for politics but this is obviously going to be the major covid story for the coming weeks. In terms of time frames, there is usually a 3 to 7 day incubation before symptoms develop, once/if they develop, the duration of fever is often an indication of severity. If the disease takes a bad turn it is usually 7-14 days after symptom onset when the inflammatory storm starts causing the major problems.
  13. Unfortunately, is becoming more apparent by the day that we are heading into a third wave of this virus. The summer wave cage off of a plateau of roughly 20,000 positive cases per day and this one appears to be launching off a plateau of 40,000 cases per day. I wouldn't be surprised if we jump up to 100,000 cases per day by November. Watching the hospitalization trends over the coming weeks well give a clue about how much of a rise in deaths we'll see in this wave. Not sure how much this is registering with the general public at this point. The experts have been issuing stern warnings for months about their worries for fall/winter and those worries are all starting to show concerning signs of becoming reality.
  14. Pretty embarrassing post here. For both you and the fox news network. Yikes.
  15. Looking nationwide, according to the covid simulations the declines in cases we have seen over the last couple months appear to be leveling off and cases are predicted to start rising again in the next 1-2 weeks. Deaths should continue a trend of declining for another approximately 5-6 weeks given the 4 week lag between new cases and new deaths. If things pan out like this, it is a bad sign heading into winter. The number of active circulating cases could portend a third wave larger than all the rest. Having said this, there could be some protection from the existing prevalence of people who have immunity which is estimated at around 15% nationwide. I'm hopeful that we will have an effective vaccine with good data soon but I believe the timeline from the CDC director of availability more likely after fall/winter and more likely widely available in spring/summer next year. So whatever happens with this next wave of infections will only be contained with mitigation efforts.