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About mattb65

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    Kailua, HI

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  1. I think in general relying on model guidance verbatim beyond day 5 whether it be the statistically best models like the EPS, GEFS or others is the wrong way to use the tools. In this case, the track up to day 5 was pretty darn good on the EPS with the spread increasing significantly after that. I believe an MCS in the midwest that wasn't forecast caused a significant change in the steering pattern that initiated the shift to the stall scenario, it was a pretty abrupt modelling change. Once that was factored in, the tracks pretty much locked into what we're seeing with relatively small variances in terms of how close to the coast the storm would get at different latitudes. Model guidance up to Day 5 (120 hours) is about all people should look at IMO when trying to gauge the verbatim impacts. I know we'll all look at the full runs because we can't help ourselves but beyond that amount of time, the error bars are too large and a relatively small unforecasted event like a large MCS that pops up or a poorly forecast shortwave can dramatically alter the course for the storm.
  2. Absolutely, the east coast of Florida was very fortunate that the hurricane stalled so long on the Bahamas causing it to weaken and keep it far enough off shore to spare them significant damage.
  3. My parents live on the salt run in St. Augustine, FL right next to Anastasia State Park and the impact there is relatively minor. They were getting TS force winds and there was very high surf probably approaching 20 Feet on the ocean side and impacting the dunes but not completely topping the dunes. The water rose to the level of their dock but did not top the dock. For reference, Hurricane Matthew and Irma had water rise above the level of their dock with Matthew completely destroying it. For Irma and Dorian they prepped the dock and it seems to have helped spare them any damage.
  4. If you look around there are some reputable organizations that are looking for aid. Bahamas Red Cross, Salvation Army among others - links in the USA Today story above.
  5. Obviously. My favorite so far are the random font changes, capitalizations, hyphenations and other grammatical oddities in the SENC posts. It's like he's a living and breathing email FWD that I would get from my grandfather before he passed away.
  6. I take back what I said before, this is the best thread going on the board right now.
  7. The banter thread has degraded so much in the last 30 minutes that the awful posts that should be here are being posted in the main thread.
  8. Seems with each cycle of the GFS the forward motion is slower than the past cycle and it keeps trickling ever closer to the space coast, N Coast of FL and then up for a brief set of landfalls as it traverses SC/NC coast up to the OBX. Both the slower speed and the closer pass would cause a significantly worse impact due to longer onshore fetch increasing flooding/surge threat and the higher risk to get into the more destructive eyewall even if it is on the weaker side of the storm. I don't have as good access to the ECMWF or UKMET but are they also showing similar model trends with the storm taking longer to gain latitude and a closer pass to the FL coast? Here's the last 4 cycles of the GFS at its closest pass to Cape Canaveral.
  9. Supports the SFMR showing 150-155+ mph winds, yikes
  10. Can someone post a link to the chart that shows different model verification at each time point out to 120h that is occasionally posted. Tried to find it on google without any luck. TIA
  11. Don't want to derail the thread but there was some pretty significant flooding in north florida in the JAX/St. Augustine region, my family lives there. Generally agree with your point though that the state as a whole dodged a bullet with the offshore track in Matthew and likley would be spared the worst again if Dorian misses landfall. Run to run consistency has been poor on this storm so many outcomes are obviously still on the table. In terms of near term trends, it appears the most recent ERC is probably complete judging by IR eye clearing. Wouldn't be surprised if this is at strong cat 3/ low end cat 4 by the end of the day today.
  12. Just got a TOR over my house next to Wheaton. Looks like broad rotation still.
  13. Sleet line is still charging north, it will need to meet some resistance soon or it might be lights out for almost everyone. 33F rain, doing what we do best, lol
  14. Down to 33.1/32.8 and gradually but steadily falling, cold surfaces are whitening up. It'll be cold enough at the surface to accumulate on the non paved surfaces. Problem is the WAA probably flips us over down in the tropics.