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mattb65

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KIAD
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Wheaton, MD

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  1. mattb65

    March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

    Sleet line is still charging north, it will need to meet some resistance soon or it might be lights out for almost everyone. 33F rain, doing what we do best, lol
  2. mattb65

    March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

    Flipped to pingers in silver spring
  3. mattb65

    March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

    Down to 33.1/32.8 and gradually but steadily falling, cold surfaces are whitening up. It'll be cold enough at the surface to accumulate on the non paved surfaces. Problem is the WAA probably flips us over down in the tropics.
  4. mattb65

    March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

    NAM3k shows a thin warm layer centered around 800 just NW of DC to Baltimore that will make or break the storm for those riding the boundary. Looks good for the favored spots further to the north and west.
  5. mattb65

    2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

    Still 31.6 on the pws this morning. Impressive CAD almost always holds longer than predicted.
  6. mattb65

    2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

    Mix of snow, pingers and rimed flaked for the last 30 mins. 3.75" and 28 degrees in Wheaton/Kemp Mill. There looks to be some heavies heading this way which will hopefully flip us back to more snow than ip.
  7. mattb65

    2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

    A hair over 3" OTG in Kemp Mill/wheaton park region of silver spring, time to head out with the little guy and enjoy
  8. mattb65

    2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

    Baltimore weenies can step off the ledge.
  9. mattb65

    2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

    27 degrees, 2" OTG and moderate snow picking up in intensity. I was expecting 2-4" and think I may exceed the top end of expectations. Every storm has busted positive here this year, why not this one too.
  10. mattb65

    2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

    These SWFE tend to come in hot with the thump, looks like this one is no exception. Herpaderp ftw.
  11. mattb65

    2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

    Ferrier snow maps about to bust already, think it gave 1" for the event.
  12. mattb65

    February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE

    Here's the sounding at Hour 30 for the DC metro region - it painted this as snow on the 6z run and as mix on the current run, by this point approximatel 0.4" QPF has falling, prior runs had 0.5-0.75" QPF. It's a relatively minor difference and probably rate dependent. I think with a sounding like this it would be snow in heavy precip or snow/sleet mix in lighter precip. I personally don't see this GFS run as some huge step back, just another variation of the same with probably ~0.3-0.4" of QPF falling before we lose the column in the DC metro region - supports 2-4" of snow before we flip with some boom potential if big rates come in with the initial bands.
  13. mattb65

    February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE

    Well I think you need to adjust your previous posts - you seemed to indicate a transition Snow straight to Rain is what you expected. I think most agree with what you said in this post it'll be snow then pingers - duration TBD - NAM/Euro suggest only a few hours before going to ZR/Rn, other models suggest maybe a bit longer. With strong WAA like what is modeled and a retreating HP, I agree that a long duration pinger fest isn't all that likely.
  14. mattb65

    February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE

    Who is calling for 3 inches of sleet or 0.25 inches of FZRA in the metro regions??? This one is looking like a standard slop storm - 2-4" for most with some boom potential if rates come in hot and heavy followed by pingers for a while then a little ZR then rain overnight. Do you think this is going to snow for 3-5 hours then go straight to rain? Is that your call?
  15. mattb65

    February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE

    Guidance is pretty unanimous that this transitions to pingers before going over to rain. SWFE almost always go to pingers and often go earlier than models indidcate. Going straight from snow to rain is very unlikely.
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