kat5hurricane

That's a pretty significant jump west by the GFS. Not Euro like, but trending in the right direction since the 18z whiff yesterday.

GFS is doing the windshield wiper thing. Went well east at 18z then back west at 00z. Still way too early to make any determination. It would be nice to see the CMC somewhat hold serve since it sniffed out this thing first.

But could also be detrimental for the coast with the phase causing a closer track to the coast. That's what makes this such a thread the needle event, so much can go wrong in either direction.

Maybe for a 24+ inch storm but you could get a 12-18 inch storm even with a fast mover, it's happened before.

You can't really take the surface maps too seriously at this point and the east/west windshield wiper effect. What we do know is that there looks to be a really big storm somewhere. All the other stuff will be ironed out over the next few days. It does seem very thread the needle though. A lot will have to line up perfectly to get big snows here so don't get your hopes up too high.

Man, this storm has massive potential as well as massive heartbreak potential but that's what makes tracking fun, eh? If this comes to fruition, when was the last time the CMC led the way when it was on its own? I honestly can't remember.

Like 95% of the population does.

We had a 6-8 inch storm locally just a few weeks ago which is almost a third of NYC's annual snowfall average and is close to the January average. Some perspective is indeed for what a NYC winter should look like.

Looks like a mid March storm. White rain. The real story will be when the ponding freezes up later, it's going to be slippery out there this evening.

It's rare that a model, completely on its own like the Euro in this instance, scores a win. If you're right about the Ukie trending the wrong way, that's a sign that the Euro will shift east also.

There's no science behind this but I always feel better about storms that are modelled too far east to trend west than those that are forecasted as inland runners to trend east. It's why I never bought into the last storm even 5 or so days out.

Just took the dog out, little guy was buried gleefully (well, not so gleefully, I was the gleeful one ) in about 6.5" here in Whitestone and coming down moderately.

And people at work, and friends at home, asking me where's the snow? I said, what snow? I don't watch the news much anymore so I assume that the news was hyping it up because everybody I know seems to think we were supposed to get a snowstorm. I still don't know why anybody watches TV meterologists anymore.

Hailing in Whitestone, just got home in time to beat it. Don't see that too often

It was pouring leaves last night with the wind howling. The wind felt great with the mild temperatures. It's going to feel cold again when the temps drop this weekend to "seasonal" levels after a warm week.