tristateweatherFB

Had to be 3-5 inch per hr rates. Elmsford is flooded. I have a lot of water at job

May I ask. Why are people Using the nam at 84 hrs ? Same people that use the gfs. Relax. Breathe. The outcome is not set at all. I predicted 1-2 feet days ago. I am sticking with it. Why? Because if we thump at 15:1 ratio. With one inch qpf. You see my math. 12 if we mix. 16 plus if mostly snow. Have fun everyone

And then?

Ty. But you see we did it twice this year and worked. If it can work next week look out! Haha. I hope we all cash in

Haha not yet. And it’s a meatball watch first would be Monday night. Tuesday night a warning meaning eat your meatballs on Wednesday! We two for two with higher snowfall this year. We aiming for a biggy next week

It didn’t come way north as you said. Just some more Qpf. It’s the same.

Wrong

Maybe it’s lack of sleep but I don’t see it. Less qpf. Tick north.

Within 24 hrs of then event. They will put up warnings and wwa around 3pm

It’s been awful all year. Will correct stronger

Yes I see it but the way I read it sounding tucked in. If precip arrives early could be rain but also means more tucked

How far out does the hrrr go out? I thought only 48 hrs

You should hire taller people.

Anyone else puzzled/worried?

I understand the excitement of a single op run. Even the ensembles (which is more realistic). But… teleconnections!! Epo! Mjo! Combo is a good tool but know how to use it. I kept thinking the Mjo was wrong. Showing warn phase and then crash in the cod. I (we) seen this get stronger into phases. Mjo loves the cod. Well here is the new mjo. That adds to the fact the mjo teleconnection is coming around. personally I been saying warm up (though thought would be more impressive and longer) then fun come mid January 10-20th for a very long time. I am selfishly trying to get a big storm in that timeframe. Before that it’s gravy and unlikely. keep Up the good work everyone! I can’t always post due to my weather obligations. happy and healthy new year to all.