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Everything posted by WEATHER53

  1. Main thing is every depiction shows strong high pressure to our north. I don’t know if those waters north of Alaska have anything to do with it. Don’t know if the status of the variety of indexes are aligned to keep those water open and assist in high pressure being favorably set up to our north but that looks like the general battle plan well into December.
  2. Where is the best place to look at 500mbmaps and 500mb forecasts without having to pay? Thanks
  3. Right now think my analogs look very good into, and I think thru,December. Some good long rangers had mid Atlantic shifting mild again after 15-19Th Nov and I don’t see that, in fact the opposite. i want to comment on our method of choosing specific occurrent weather from the March into Sept time frame of the year preceding the winter for the long range we issue in Sept. We have believed since 1980 that this period sets the tone for the winter. The trick is what occurrences do you emphasize the most or least. Also, we do not believe nor state that a, just as an example, very cool June followed by a very dry July and August CAUSES a cold but not very snowy winter but we do say that if 80% of the time since 1945 that was the winter outcome then that probably is the foundation of the outlook and we compare, or perhaps contrast, that with other events of the March-Sept time period to complete the outlook. i know I am a distinct minority but I think all of the indexes are mainly alphabet soup, many just a decade or so in existence, largely unproven. I think the pattern causes them and they not the pattern but what does cause the pattern is still Gods mystery. Now, high pressure does have to be in the right place to deliver the cold so there are some requirements. I think the indexes are the seasoning on the meat but not the meat. Any question please just ask.
  4. 76 and 84 are there and what followed was epic persistent cold 77 and frigid inauguration 85
  5. That is a long duration high pressure up there with open water and cats and dogs living together.
  6. Your write up was so good. Technical enough for us and a more general way of explaining also that public will understand.
  7. So Isotherm and Matt go mild with around average snow, I agree with snow but think colder.
  8. 1912 is one of coldest Jan on record and 1963 one of coldest Dec on record.
  9. 28.5 at midnight. Coldest for time this season.
  10. Some good and very cold winter analogs showing up 3 days either side of Nov 12th. 1933, 1995, 1993, 1986 and the record cold around 12th for those years
  11. Is that the Elks golf course and Hello MidLo snow ho!
  12. I like everything so far since early October Another frontal blast thru Tuesday and maybe even moisture still here after cold air arrives. Would like to see that for couple months.
  13. 14 total error is really good I think I had like 35
  14. It is so loud out back in summer with the bugs screeching . Dead silent now.
  15. 33.5 at midnight, coldest at that time this season by 5 degrees
  16. I think things are underway, First the shift to wet in October and now temps looking colder. Pattern changes and can last 2/3 months around DC which fits with my outlook
  17. Thank you so much Different than mine temp wise but neither of us think much snow.
  18. We were in Tug Hill during Great Feb 07 lake effect outbreak!
  19. Superior event in terms of wind, rainfall and temp drop stating otherwise is attention whore trolling.
  20. 30 degree drop in 5 hours 77 to 47 at 1:30am
  21. Mega Front 25 drop in 3 hours from 77 to 52 at 11:30