hawkeye_wx

A series of heavy downpours here this morning put another 0.91" in my gauge. It has been a great last week, with three systems all dumping near the top of the model qpf range. My total over the last week is a whopping 4.13". That'll put a nice dent in the drought. This time, the weak sun and much cooler weather will allow the soil to remain moist.

A nice band of rain popped over Cedar Rapids late this evening. My final total is 2.19".

My 2-day rain total is 1.73". I'm pretty happy with that. We have been stuck in the mid 50s all day.

I'm nearing an inch of rain since early Sunday.

Models still don't agree on where the heaviest rain swath will fall. There are a couple models showing the heaviest just w/nw of Cedar Rapids. A couple others show a total miss southeast. Others are in between.

This upper low lifting north through the western sub greatly over-performed around here. Widespread 0.75-1.75" fell across the Cedar Rapids area last evening and overnight. My total is 1.01". I was just hoping for a tenth or two. Monday's system should lay down another swath of good rain across eastern Iowa.

The two big ash trees in my yard were ~50 years old and crumbled apart on their own several+ years ago. The latest models are looking a little better mid month... certainly more dynamic with potential for strong lows ejecting out of the western US.

It's going to be a very late first frost/freeze this year. There's not even a frost tease for at least the next ten days.

A lot of locations around here probably won't get much, if any, rain out of this stupid weekend system. Earlier bullish models have crapped the bed. A few+ days ago the GFS had showers and much cooler Thu/Fri, but instead we get sunny, dry, and mid 80s. Ugh! The avg high temp is below 70º now, and it will be 64º by day 10. Models are suggesting another day or two of 80s, then 70s indefinitely. Much of this warm season has been incredibly boring... one long dry stretch after another.

The outlook into October is extremely dry across this region. I am back to watering the garden, but not nearly as often because the sun is much weaker now and the temp is cooler.

Per Ryan Maue, the new Euro upgrade, coming next month, tracks Sam closer to Bermuda.

At the last minute a strong trough dives into southeast Canada, eroding the ridge and saving the day. We know the 7-10 day upper flow will continue to flop around, though.

The Euro has a much stronger subtropical ridge and a much weaker and farther west trough compared to the GFS.

In Cedar Rapids we've had four straight winters with above average snowfall. Two of the last three I've recorded 50", which is way above average and is a total we rarely reach. We are definitely due for a 20" dud.

I was hoping for more widespread heavy rain, but the line had weak spots and it moved through quickly. I'll have to be satisfied with 0.51". Hopefully, October will be a bit wetter across the region.