hawkeye_wx

Several trees in my neighborhood are dropping leaves early, likely the result of the drought.

Up to 7 inches of rain fell near Ottumwa overnight. That's more rain than Ottumwa has received over the last four months, combined.

Unfortunately, this evening's rainfall has been heavy in just a narrow area. I haven't seen a drop. The next rain chance is six days away, so the 0.31" that fell a few days ago was just a brief tease. The drought continues.

89/70 over here.

Hot and humid in late September sucks..

Pressure is up to 917 mb. While the outer eyewall is trying to take over and is looking more robust with time on radar, I think the timing of the replacement cycle is about as favorable as Puerto Rico could have hoped for. PR would be worse off if the cycle had begun 8-12 hours earlier.

The latest euro still takes Maria out to sea, but models are still inconsistent with Jose's future track/strength/influence. Latest recon pass suggests a pressure of about 914 mb, and the max wind has come down a fair amount as the inner eyewall's energy is gradually transferred outward. The max SFMR on the last pass was 132 mph. I think the official 165 mph status is generous at this point.

175 mph SFMR wind, unflagged.

A few days ago, it was looking promising for a more active, wetter, pattern. Now, with Jose and Maria hanging out over the west Atlantic for the next week plus, much of the rain has been removed/pushed back west into the plains. This morning's GFS and euro suggest we may be lucky to get a half inch over the next ten days.

Only 0.08" here last evening... disappointing. I'm not really looking forward to a week of 80s/60s. I'd like to stick with 70s/50s, and my maturing beets would be better off with cooler temps as well.

Earlier this afternoon, a significant nw jog had me thinking the northern/northeastern coast was in the biggest trouble, and perhaps the capital in the sw would escape the worst, but an equally-big west jog has taken the eye right into the south half.

Recon is in the air, although they are flying in from Curacao so it'll take a while to reach Dominica.

In addition to the obvious core bombing today, there has been a significant expansion of outflow to the south and west as the Caribbean upper low's influence has waned.

I sure wish we didn't have to wait until evening for the next recon measurements. The eye has popped and cleared very quickly, with a very intense ring around it. The eye has shown significant motion toward the nw the last couple hours. Wobble or not, that could put the worst on the northern coast of Dominica rather than the sw, where the capital is. Most of Guadeloupe's population is in the central to north part of the island(s), but there is also a decent population center on the sw corner, which could take a big hit if Maria tracks far enough north. Worst case would be the eye tracking into the middle of Guadeloupe, but that's probably too far north.

Yeah, the 12z run made a couple adjustments with Jose's future. First, it takes it a little farther east after the turn, which puts a bit more distance between Jose and Maria. Then, it weakens Jose to nothing and rebuilds the ridge before Maria can escape. This run ends up turning Maria away from the coast just before landfall, but this is beyond day 7, which means the GFS has no idea what the pattern will be then.