hawkeye_wx

It was a great week of weather. Unfortunately, the rain chances continue to dry up.

12z Euro qpf

It's 1pm... Temp: 69º Dew: 49º Awesome!

The latest recon is finished and headed home.

The visible loop is certainly showing increased organization. While it's not really convection, a ribbon of moisture has wrapped around the west/south sides of the center.

The pressure is up to 1002 mb.

The abnormal dryness has expanded into eastern Iowa. I received 3 inches of rain in July, but much of that came during the first half of the month. The lawns are browning.

The outflow is now pretty impressive, expanding in all quadrants. It's just being undercut by the shear.

My initial thought this morning based on satellite and recon.... this is no longer a hurricane. If it looks like this first thing in the morning, it may have a rough day.

HMON is similar to the UK. The HWRF, however, now shows a badly-sheared, weak storm moving into Florida, and it never recovers.

But, oddly, flight level wind only in the 50s this pass.... compared to 80s in the same part of the core during the first pass.

It'll be interesting to see what it can do with the small core tonight. The sudden upgrade is due to the new ball of intense convection over the center, but the pressure is still 996/997 mb, which is typically not cane worthy, and there isn't much surrounding the central blob. The blob will have to persist to solidify cane status.

NHC has upgraded Isaias to a hurricane. Seriously, organizing and intensifying to a cane while moving over Hispaniola has to be a first.

So who here put their money on Isaias entering Hispaniola as a misaligned, elongated surface-troughy TS and then leaving the island as a near hurricane? Anyone? Bueller?