hawkeye_wx

Barry is a mess. The surface circulation has decoupled from the offshore blob of convection. The center is drifting westward, just inland, and it's possible it could wobble back south over water again. Even the offshore blob has weakened somewhat in recent hours. Plenty of rain will still get pulled up over LA, though, eventually.

The naked center is inland. It's pretty anemic-looking on sat and radar.

Let's see what happens to the dominant center of spin that is currently nearing the southernmost point in its big wobble, the closest it will be to the convection.

Euro still showing 100+ for Chicagoland later next week. I didn't think that was a possibility this summer given how wet the region was coming out of spring, but the ground has really dried out.

This does appear to be the case. The circulation has become better defined, with the naked swirl as the center. The rest of the eddies/swirls have washed out. The latest dropsonde says 993 mb. I would still expect the exact center to wobble around a bit along the coast.

Last night's op euro has 100º here from day 7-10... with zero rain through day 10.

06z HWRF and HMON now take Barry north, tracking the center east of New Orleans. Both models barely have a drop of rain west of New Orleans.

The euro is close to a blend of the rest of the models. That's probably a good track to go with.

So the question is.... why would the HWRF take Barry north to New Orleans while the UK tracks west to Texas? They are both fairly strong.

Quite the range of possibilities, even as the system begins to organize. UK way west, Canadian west, 00z Euro west-ish, GFS east, old GFS way east, HMON way east, HWRF east.

I picked up 0.07" of rain from a tiny cell late this afternoon. My July total is now 0.17". Models show little if any rain over the next ten days. The lawns are going to dry up, big time.

We could use some rain. I've only received 0.10" this month. The models don't look great for Iowa over the next 7-10 days.

Two straight days I've been missed by the frustratingly-pulse'y storms.

I picked up 0.48" of rain from the line this evening. I will finish June with 3.76" (avg is 4.9").

Same here. I was outside taking a hummingbird feeder down when the gust front hit. I just held on.