Following is shared with Wes’ permission: Tomorrow through Thursday morning is going to be really interesting across the area as remnants of Ida move across the area. The system has some similarities with Hurricane Camille which produced a monster flash flood over Nelson County but also has enough differences that Camille is not a great analog. The similarities are that Ida remains will a have an 850 mb and surface low as it tracks across and east of the mountains. The system will be interacting with the exit region of an upper level jet streak. Strong frontogenesis will be taking place along the frontal surface. 6-8 inches of rain fell along the front well east of the mountains during Camille. The two most notable differences between the two systems is the track which was farther south across Virginia than this Ida's is forecast to be and Camille had a surface high building across to its north giving the system more easterly flow as it cam across the mountains. The heaviest rainfall will be north of the storm track along and north of the front probably across northwestern MD and southern PA though with the 2.00 PWS even DCA could end up with too much rainfall, too quickly to drain properly. Below I've attached a NAM forecast showing the forecast frontogenesis across the area. It could shift a little depending on shift in the storm track. I've also posted a NAM precipitation forecast. It tends to have a high bias but offers a glimpse of the systems rainfall potential. I wouldn't be surprised if an isolated 10" plus amount showed up somewhere over the mid Atlantic region near the mountains probably from northwest VA into Southern PA. Exactly where will depend on the storm track and meso and micro features. I used to really like forecasting these types of storms especially back in the low resolution model days when could really whip the models. Now it's not so easy. They are usually pretty good as long as they forecast the track well. South of the front in my county, higher temperatures and more instability will be present so we still could get thunderstorms with really high rainfall rates given that the PWS are forecast to be aoa 2.00" but our storms probably will be more scattered and any bands that form will be progressive keeping us in the 1-3" rainfall range. However, we may have enough shear to produce short lasting rotating storms. I'm not a severe weather expert but tomorrow afternoon I'll be watching the radar.