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Everything posted by WeatherShak

  1. BEAUTIFUL morning. Didn’t expect blue skies and sun this am. [emoji477]️ [emoji108]
  2. Find it fascinating how large and close cumulonimbus clouds appear even when about 60 miles away.
  3. Been interested in this PM too. Lots of chatter in the severe thread about potential later today. Here’s HRRR for 5 pm today.
  4. Yup. I used my left hand to hold my right hand back from turning on the AC. Was reading 73 degrees upstairs. Just about 3-4 degrees to warm for me!
  5. Skies finally opened up for our neighborhood. @H2O
  6. Surely something else brought you to the September Discobs forum on this fine football Sunday afternoon?
  7. With a few windows open, my house dropped to 69 inside. Glorious. [emoji3587] [emoji477]️ [emoji120]
  8. I’ve never seen it run all the way out into the Atlantic like it is now. Interesting that no one knows the cause.
  9. Ironically the woman reporting and her cameraman were on a foot bridge of the flooded creek with debris piling up. I shook my head and thought to myself “Welp, natural selection.”
  10. I watched it on live TV. That’s up in Thurmont.
  11. Following is shared with Wes’ permission: Tomorrow through Thursday morning is going to be really interesting across the area as remnants of Ida move across the area. The system has some similarities with Hurricane Camille which produced a monster flash flood over Nelson County but also has enough differences that Camille is not a great analog. The similarities are that Ida remains will a have an 850 mb and surface low as it tracks across and east of the mountains. The system will be interacting with the exit region of an upper level jet streak. Strong frontogenesis will be taking place along the frontal surface. 6-8 inches of rain fell along the front well east of the mountains during Camille. The two most notable differences between the two systems is the track which was farther south across Virginia than this Ida's is forecast to be and Camille had a surface high building across to its north giving the system more easterly flow as it cam across the mountains. The heaviest rainfall will be north of the storm track along and north of the front probably across northwestern MD and southern PA though with the 2.00 PWS even DCA could end up with too much rainfall, too quickly to drain properly. Below I've attached a NAM forecast showing the forecast frontogenesis across the area. It could shift a little depending on shift in the storm track. I've also posted a NAM precipitation forecast. It tends to have a high bias but offers a glimpse of the systems rainfall potential. I wouldn't be surprised if an isolated 10" plus amount showed up somewhere over the mid Atlantic region near the mountains probably from northwest VA into Southern PA. Exactly where will depend on the storm track and meso and micro features. I used to really like forecasting these types of storms especially back in the low resolution model days when could really whip the models. Now it's not so easy. They are usually pretty good as long as they forecast the track well. South of the front in my county, higher temperatures and more instability will be present so we still could get thunderstorms with really high rainfall rates given that the PWS are forecast to be aoa 2.00" but our storms probably will be more scattered and any bands that form will be progressive keeping us in the 1-3" rainfall range. However, we may have enough shear to produce short lasting rotating storms. I'm not a severe weather expert but tomorrow afternoon I'll be watching the radar.
  12. You’re good. We’re close! That spring is about 150 yards behind my house. My lot happens to be where there’s a gulley and water drains through. When everything is flowing then we’re fine. It just sucks when things clog. The state is coming to evaluate for me sometime in the next few weeks. This is front yard with me pointing at the ditch that clogs.
  13. I love my home. One year in, but after water in my basement last Fall, I'm out in the street digging out the debris in my storm drain weekly (that usually diverts runoff toward my home.).
  14. It's only fun when you're in your twenties, living on the 12th floor of a downtown DC apartment and the maintenance man fixes everything for you. Since buying a home, my perspective on certain types of weather has changed dramatically.
  15. Caught these beauties post storm
  16. Not sure how fruitful my comment is, but it’s hard for me to tell as far as my muscle memory goes. I’m used to judging how bad a summer is by how bad I trash a suit or shirt with sweat while walking around downtown before or after work. Haven’t done much of that since COVID’s onset. Although today felt particularly miserable. I was cranky even during a top off and door off Jeep ride this evening.
  17. Yup, was thinking about you. Going on 20 minutes of heavy rain.
  18. I’m just to the NE of that 3.01. Didn’t get a reading last night but it sure felt tropical for at least 2 plus hours.
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