weathermedic

A sure sign of the approaching winter. Tweet from NYC Sanitation Dept: It may be mid-October, but we already have snow on our minds. Today we start our snow training and you may see plows & salt spreaders on city streets. It's not going to snow today, but winter weather will be here before we know it. We'll be ready!

1.46 at my station. Wind gust to 33 mph so far.

Here is another "early" winter weather forecast: https://www.weatherconcierge.com/the-weather-concierge-winter-forecast-of-2018-19/

Almost continuous lightning with that line moving into Suffolk County

That storm had good rotation earlier. Not appearing as much now on latest radar scan.

Mesoscale Discussion 1500 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 1500 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0438 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018 Areas affected...Portions of NJ into Long Island and southern Connecticut Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252138Z - 252345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Occasionally weakly rotating storms are expected over the next few hours. Overall severe threat is very low. DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, currently anchored along a warm front, have occasionally showed transient, weak low to mid-level rotation across portions of central/eastern New Jersey into the NYC area and far southern Connecticut. Though lapse rates are quite poor throughout the troposphere (i.e 5-5.5 C/km), sfc-850 mb moisture is quite deep, contributing to MLCAPE of up to 1000 J/kg along/south of the front. While effective bulk shear values are rather modest given the marginally unstable atmosphere (30-40 knots across the discussion area), favorable low-level directional shear remains in place, with effective SRH values exceeding 250 m2/s2 over Long Island, with nearly 350 m2/s2 0-3km SRH noted by recent KOKX WSR-88D VWP data. Low-level flow is slightly more veered closer to PHL, with latest KDIX VWP data suggesting both 0-3km and 0-1km SRH exceeding 150 m2/s2. The favorable low-level shear, combined with the moist/marginally buoyant airmass, may promote semi-discrete storms in the area to continue weakly rotating on an occasional basis, particularly across portions of Long Island and southern Connnecticut, where storms may more favorably traverse the warm front and ingest available low-level streamwise vorticity. Still, given the marginally buoyant airmass and expected lackluster potential for stronger rotation, the severe threat appears quite low. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/25/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI..

Flash flood warnings just issued for parts of Brooklyn and Queens as heavy downpours develop over these areas.

I see it on radar off shore. Looks like a thin line oriented nw-se and moving nne

Flash flood warning just issued for Bronx and Westchester.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0828 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 322 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 Areas affected...SE NY...Long Island...Southern New England Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 121921Z - 130000Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates up to 2"/hr will continue along a stationary front this afternoon. Flash flooding is possible. Discussion...GOES-16 visible imagery shows a clear demarcation of clear sky conditions along and south of a surface boundary draped along the coast from near Philadelphia, PA northeast towards Chatham, MA. Within this clear area, MLCape has risen to 500-1000 J/kg which has allowed thunderstorms to develop and persist across the threat area. PWATs across the region are over 2 inches, and latest 18Z upper air soundings from KOKX have freezing levels nearing 15 kft, above the 90th percentile for the date. This deep warm cloud depth and high PWAT is allowing efficient rain processes, with rainfall rates over 2"/hr estimated recently by KOKX radar. Although instability weakens north of the front, warm advection atop the boundary is driving lift, aided by weak PVA and diffluence within a 300mb jet entrance region. 18Z soundings from CHH and OKX have 20kts of 0-6km shear, so multicell development is possible, which could train thanks to boundary parallel flow and corfidi vectors aligned with the 0-6km mean wind. The high res guidance is varied in continuing or intensifying convection through the remainder of the afternoon, but the sufficient lift in a very moist environment supports at least a continuation of a heavy rain threat through this evening. Many places within the threat area have received 2-4" of rainfall in the past 24 hours, and these antecedent conditions lead to an enhanced flash flood threat. An additional 1 to as much as 3 inches of rainfall is possible, and flash flooding will be possible where rain rates become 2"/hr. Weiss ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...OKX...

Wind shifted to NNW direction overnight and dews came down 5-6 degrees. I’ll take anything at this point.

Got to 96 at my station at 5pm today as the wind shifted to the WNW. Dew point came down to 68 as some dryer air mixed in.

85/75 at 9am at JFK. Can't breathe outside. Edit: 88/74 at 10am-KJFK

I guess the NWS will be sending a survey team there tomorrow