weathermedic

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Everything posted by weathermedic

  1. 90/64 at my station. Amazing how much more comfortable 10 degrees off the dew point feels.
  2. 1.60 inches at my station so far in Sheepshead Bay.
  3. Looks like the westerly shear has dissipated a bit and the system is getting slightly better organized.
  4. Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0451 (Issued at 1133 AM EDT Wed Jul 08 2020 ) MPD Selection Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0451 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1133 AM EDT Wed Jul 08 2020 Areas affected...Eastern PA...Northern NJ...Southern NY Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 081533Z - 082133Z Summary...Convection developing late this morning will be capable of producing rain rates 1-2"/hr across eastern PA, northern NJ, and southern NY. Localized flash flooding will be possible. Discussion...Along a higher moisture axis characterized by PWs in the 1.7 to 1.9" range and an instability pool (upwards of 3000 J/kg SBCAPE as of 15Z), scattered convection has developed across portions of eastern PA and southern NY per latest GOES-E IR imagery and radar returns. This activity is developing within weak but persistent warm advection and likely initiating off old outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Through 21Z, the uncapped environment and weak mean flow should allow for continued development of storms with pulse to loosely organized modes driven by cell mergers and boundary interactions that will drift east. After 17Z, the RAP suggests an increase in low level inflow to 25 kts along with increasing CAPE values to above 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This will support higher rain rates that could approach 1.5-2.0"/hr - the 12Z HREF probabilities for exceeding 1" are in the 60-80 percent range and around 20-30 percent for 2"/hr. Through 21Z, total amounts of 2-3" are possible with some isolated amounts 3-4" possible (supported by the 6-hr probs for 3"+ around 40 percent). Antecedent conditions vary across the outlook area with some portions having seen recent heavy rainfall and 7-day preip departures up to 300 percent of normal. The hi-res guidance does favor the drier areas which could limit the flash flood potential, but the intense near-term rain rates would overcome poor drainage, the highly urban corridor, and other low-lying ares and may lead to flash flooding into the afternoon hours. Taylor ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...OKX...PHI... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...
  5. 84/73 RH 70% at my station in Sheepshead Bay. Topped out at 90 before the sea breeze. 0.14 in the bucket from this morning’s convection. 0.51 for the month to date.
  6. That was unexpected. What was the trigger for it?
  7. BDF through here. Temp down to 77 with an easterly wind
  8. Pretty impressive temps along the south shore of Brooklyn and Queens with a light southerly flow.
  9. 85 degrees at 10pm here. Probably end up with 77-78 degrees for the overnight low.
  10. Nice outflow with the storms over the lower Hudson Valley.
  11. Numerous trees and wires down throughout western and southern Brooklyn
  12. Very windy now here in Sheepshead Bay. Lights just flickered. Heavy windswept downpour.
  13. .50 inches with the downpour that just ended here in Sheepshead Bay. Not much wind.
  14. Pretty decent line formed and that line has a bowing segment in western Sullivan County.
  15. Watch posted for NYC and points north and west through 8pm. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 312 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Northern New Jersey Southeastern New York Extreme northeastern Pennsylvania Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will persist and spread east-southeastward from southeastern New York and northeastern Pennsylvania to southern New England through the afternoon. The strongest storms could have some transient supercell structures, with multicell clusters the primary storm mode. Occasional damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be the main threats. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Monticello NY to 20 miles east northeast of Providence RI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
  16. Can see the cumulus tower on that storm from Brooklyn
  17. If so, that will put a huge dent in the drought conditions if they persist. I think the pattern is headed that way. Drought conditions, then tropical weather system(s) or at least remnants of, affecting us as the season progresses.