weathermedic
-
Posts
2,254 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by weathermedic
-
OKX just sent this on X (formerly Twitter) A few showers are around this morning, mainly for portions of Long Island and Connecticut. These areas will also see more clouds than sun through the afternoon. Western areas will see breaks of sun and should remain mostly dry today, though an isolated shower is possible.
-
Didn’t hear or see anything about rain today but of course it’s raining over my borough Brooklyn
-
Looks like a few storms beginning to pop on radar over Sussex County and near Allentown PA
-
Mesoscale Discussion 2185 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011913Z - 012115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated within the next 1-2 hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region. Given a favorable convective environment, storms will likely intensify and pose a severe wind/hail threat through early evening. Watch issuance is likely by 21z (5 PM EDT) as thunderstorms begin to mature. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES day cloud phase imagery depicts towering cumulus on the north/northeastern fringe of a low-level thermal ridge (roughly outlined by the 90 F isotherm) where modest warm advection is promoting ascent. Some lingering inhibition is noted in satellite imagery, but this should continue to erode over the next couple of hours as the diurnal heating maximum approaches. Latest guidance generally depicts deep convective initiation by 20-21 UTC within this regime and potentially along a diffuse frontal boundary draped from southern NY into northern PA. Regional VWPs continue to sample mid-level flow on the order of 35 knots, which is supporting similar effective bulk shear values given somewhat weak near-surface winds. Based on these observations and recent forecast soundings, hodograph elongation appears sufficient for organized convection, including the potential for a few supercells. While discrete modes persist, large hail (potentially up to 1.75 inches) will be possible. A brief tornado may also be possible - particularly across northern NJ/far southern NY near a weak surface trough where low-level veering may be adequate for a localized tornado threat. With time, clustering should promote some degree of upscale growth with an increasing severe wind threat, especially with southward extent into southern NJ and DE where guidance has been consistently showing a signal for clustered/linear storm modes. Given the favorable convective environment, watch issuance will likely be needed as convection begins to intensify.
-
Nice write up about the severe weather potential around here from OKX AFD this morning: The main focus of concern will come this afternoon into early this evening. A warm front will lift north of the area this morning, but only for a brief time. Strengthening high pressure across eastern Canada into New England will send the front back to the southwest as a backdoor cold front late this afternoon into this evening. Winds will back around to the east behind it. While there is some uncertainty as to how much the airmass will destabilize in the warm sector today, HREF mean SBCAPE values are still 1000-2000 J/KG across the marginal and slight risk areas. Greatest instability will be north and west of the NYC metro. Additionally, there is 40-50kt of deep-layer shear and decent directional shear 0-3km. SPC has included part of the area in a low probability for tornadoes (less than 5 percent). However, mid-level lapse rates are marginal around 6C. The flood threat remains low with the area under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. This is for an isolated flash flood threat. While the airmass is loaded with moisture, PW values around 2 inches, there is decent storm motion in the westerly flow aloft. Training does not seem likely in this event. SPC HREF probabilities are greater than 50 percent for an 1" in 3 hours, but less than 10 percent for 3" in 3 hours. Much of the strong to severe convection should drop south and west of the area around or shortly after 00Z (8 PM). .KEY MESSAGE 2... An easterly flow will result in a much more stable airmass across the area on Wednesday. The frontal boundary is expected to stay south and west of the region before starting to move back in Wednesday night into Thursday as a warm front. SPC has the western half of the area in a marginal risk for severe weather, mainly due to some uncertainty with how far south and west the front gets. Right now, expecting mainly scattered showers for the western half of the forecast area. Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the warm front lifting across the area. The airmass will then warm up and destabilize Thursday in the warm sector with another chance of strong to severe convection with the cold front late Thursday afternoon/evening. SPC has western portions of the area under a marginal/slight risk and WPC has the entire area under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Details should fall better into line in the next 24h.
-
House fire on the southern end of Hylan Blvd on Staten Island reportedly from a lightning strike a short time ago
-
.70 here from this morning’s rain.
-
1.47 inches here in Sheepshead Bay
-
From OKX AFD: While still low confidence, given high shear and little instability, severe thunderstorms for northeast NJ, NYC and western Long Island can not be completely ruled out. This would be mainly an isolated damaging wind gust threat, but given decent low level curvature in model soundings an isolated tornado is also possible.
-
89/74 currently at my station so dews still very uncomfortable
-
Some impressive 40k+ cloud tops with some of these storms
-
91/78 HI 107
-
83/77...yuck
-
Up to 4.0 inches at my station
-
3.18 so far at my station
-
Already at a 74 dewpoint at my station now.
-
Up to 9.4 for the month at my station.
-
.85 total at my station
-
.05 here so far
-
Looks like showers popping up SW to NE from Breezy Point to Valley Stream
-
Severe thunderstorm warning for Bronx and Queens just issued until 5pm. 60 mph winds possible.
-
Echo tops with some of the storms in NJ are over 30,000 feet. Not very common around these parts. The one just north of Morristown is showing 37,000 ft.
-
Tornado watch through 9pm for a large part of the area including NYC
-
Mesoscale Discussion 1690 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 211723Z - 211930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Increasing storm coverage is expected through the afternoon and will necessitate a watch. DISCUSSION...Recent composite radar indicates increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage across eastern Pennsylvania on the leading edge of mid 70s dewpoints as they advect northward. Most of this activity is moving away from the greater moisture/instability, but continued northward destabilization is anticipated. In addition, broken cloud cover across southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey will result in greater instability within this zone. The leading edge of a 50 knot mid-level jet (centered around 5-6km) has been sampled by the CCX VWP within the last half an hour. As this overspreads the warm sector, shear will be in place for storm organization, including supercells. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, but some large hail and a few tornadoes will also be possible. The greatest threat will be across southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey, where the greater instability is in place. However, as the warm front lifts northeastward, the threat could extend into southeast New York and Connecticut this afternoon. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39187437 38877495 39457648 39867689 41097690 42277653 42657593 42727456 42487358 42037309 41257279 40597287 40417378 39187437 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
