January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[CAPE]

Haven't had time to look at anything since this morning. Just checked the 12z Ens runs and all look great. What did I miss?

[TSSN+]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
314 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is continuing to increase for a significant winter
storm for the region Saturday into Sunday. Additionally, snow
accumulations increase for upslope snow showers in the
Alleghenies Wednesday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-  1) Significant winter storm expected across the Mid-
  Atlantic states late Saturday through Sunday bringing
  widespread snow. Arctic high pressure will build into the area
  Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the source
  for very cold temperatures this weekend into early next week.

- 2) Accumulating snow is likely along the Alleghenies Wednesday
  night through Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant winter storm expected across the Mid-Atlantic
states late Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread snow. Arctic
high pressure will build into the area Friday afternoon into
Saturday morning providing the source for very cold temperatures
this weekend into early next week.

Broad upper troughing will remain established across the Great Lks
into the northern Mid-Atlantic through at least early next week.
Southern stream energy is expected to interact with very cold air to
the north to produce moderate to heavy snow across the area this
weekend. Looking at most recent model data, the 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM
remain the furthest south and weakest solutions as it leaves more
energy cut off while the 12Z EC and Canadian models show more energy
getting absorbed into the northern stream. The 12Z EPS and AIFS are
more consistent with their deterministic runs while the GFES shows a
very different solution to its deterministic run. Will continue to
highlight a significant winter storm affecting the area this weekend
in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Does the Nam go past 84hrs? Cause not sure how they could see what kind of solution it would have showed lol. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Haven't had time to look at anything since this morning. Just checked the 12z Ens all look great. What did I miss?

The Grotesque Forecasting System uncaved

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Does the Nam go past 84hrs? Cause not sure how hey could see what kind of solution it would have showed lol. 

No idea why anyone here, let alone the NWS, would give 2 shits about the 12km NAM. Esp extrapolating lol. That model is damn near useless.

[Bob Chill]

35 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Can you show the folks at DCA the proper way of slantsticking...I swear if I have 2 ft and they have 9.2" my head will explode!

[TSSN+]

Just now, CAPE said:

No idea why anyone here, let alone the NWS, would give 2 shits about the 12km NAM. Esp extrapolating lol. That model is damn near useless.

Ya I raised an eyebrow at that part. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Will start on my Synoptic Analysis Two post after we see how the GFS goes. In other news I meet with my microclimate professor who handed me a 500 page book of "Atmospheric Science an Introductory Survey by John Wallace and Peter Hobbs" to read before I might start doing research (was told to focus on the physics behind the storms as apparently "I learned meteorology from the weather forum" didn't cut it). Additionally, I apparently am being added to a group chat of grad students and professors who've been debating this storm. 

[T. August]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

^some backyard in Norrisville

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

No idea why anyone here, let alone the NWS, would give 2 shits about the 12km NAM. Esp extrapolating lol. That model is damn near useless.

Do you think they were just talking about the energy that you can see through 60 hrs...and comparing that to the GFS at the same point?

[TSSN+]

Just cause we waiting for legit models. 18z Nam is definitely pushing out the sw faster than 12z this run. 

[Weather Will]

Piss Cape off and extrapolate at will: WB 18Z 12K NAM at fantasy range.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Do you think they were just talking about the energy that you can see through 60 hrs...and comparing that to the GFS at the same point?

No idea, and I don't care to know what they were talking about, or why.

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

^some backyard in Norrisville

Omg yes lol

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Piss Cape off and extrapolate at will: WB 18Z 12K NAM at fantasy range.

Revive the dgex!

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Just cause we waiting for legit models. 18z Nam is definitely pushing out the sw faster than 12z this run. 

That's it. People are anxious.. need something to look at NOW and either validate their hopes or stress the fuck over.

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

I could see this being one of those where the local mets go 4-8. Then up it to 6-10. Then up it again to 10-14. I used to love watching Bob Ryan constantly upping the totals. Always made me chuckle. He was the original DC snow weenie. 

Bob Ryan’s famous “of biblical proportions” for 1996 

[CAPE]

Snippet from Mount Holly latest AFD- they are the better local forecast office, until they mention the 12k NAM. 

In fact, snow probabilities of the NBM have actually gone up quite a
bit, now showing a 70-90% chance of 2+ inches of snow and a 60-80%
chance of 6+ inches of snow for areas south of Philadelphia, with
probabilities gradually falling off further north. Likewise, the
probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) has increased
further with now almost our entire area expected to observe at least
Moderate Level winter storm impacts. As noted with the previous
shift, these probabilities are higher than the prior forecast cycle.

[CAPE]

Y'all what some good feels, check this out

[Nomz]

I do a forecast for my school, I was wondering what y'all think is a reasonable range to forecast for tonight? I'll wait for the 18z suite but I'm thinking probably 4-8 for now? I want to suggest significant accumulation but keep a lid on it for now.

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's it. People are anxious.. need something to look at NOW and either validate their hopes or stress the fuck over.

True but also we extrapolate the NAM even for 2 inch snowstorms. Its more so a "fun" exercise akin to repeatedly administering electronic shocks to yourself.  

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

I got my KU book signed by him years ago. Great dude.

What is Paul doing now days?

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

I do a forecast for my school, I was wondering what y'all think is a reasonable range to forecast for tonight? I'll wait for the 18z suite but I'm thinking probably 4-8 for now? I want to suggest significant accumulation but keep a lid on it for now.

I'm going 4-8 for the low end "floor" (though would feel so much better about that if the GFS locks in!) and 14-18 for the high end ceiling. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

I do a forecast for my school, I was wondering what y'all think is a reasonable range to forecast for tonight? I'll wait for the 18z suite but I'm thinking probably 4-8 for now? I want to suggest significant accumulation but keep a lid on it for now.

Congrats on not doing what I probably would've done and immediately leaning toward the most bullish outcome. 4-8"+ with a clear caveat that the + could be a fair bit more seems wise for an early guess so that you don't get shoved into a locker if school happens on Monday. Good luck!

[benjammin]

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Bib Ryan’s famous “of biblical proportions” for 1996 

That was one time Bob Ryan forecasted 1-2 feet before a flake had fallen. He was usually very conservative (and correct) but when he forecasted that I knew it was going to be good. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

I do a forecast for my school, I was wondering what y'all think is a reasonable range to forecast for tonight? I'll wait for the 18z suite but I'm thinking probably 4-8 for now? I want to suggest significant accumulation but keep a lid on it for now.

I am also being asked a million questions, I always hedge, plenty of time to go bigger if you need to.  At this juncture I told them I “am reasonably confident” of a 4-8 inch storm but also reminded them that storms have vanished in this time frame before.  Then tomorrow or Thursday if the good models are still showing a big storm add some. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Nomz said:

I do a forecast for my school, I was wondering what y'all think is a reasonable range to forecast for tonight? I'll wait for the 18z suite but I'm thinking probably 4-8 for now? I want to suggest significant accumulation but keep a lid on it for now.

Look, you’ll never stand out being a follower.  My recommendation? 32”-47” with lollies of 50 in favored areas. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, GreyHat said:

You're entitled to your opinion. Maybe belittling people makes you feel good.

https://www.scribd.com/document/442494270/Michael-Abrashoff-It-s-Your-Ship-Management-Techniques-from-the-Best-Damn-Ship-in-the-Navy-Business-Plus-2002#page=44

Read page 44, I had the privilege of meeting Defense Secretary William Perry many times. Of course the Pentagon isn't going to allow everything that happened.

Hey yall.  Stop.  Stop this now. 

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Just cause we waiting for legit models. 18z Nam is definitely pushing out the sw faster than 12z this run. 

Not sure it matters, but looks the opposite to me?

[WEATHER53]

45 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Come out back, let me holla at you real quick

Ran*y  I’m not sure what Old Ebbits does anymore but maybe a meetup for some sters Friday evening somewhere? I can  come pick you up if needed .

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure it matters, but looks the opposite to me?

Nam, Gfs and euro. Can see Nam looks more like euro here. Also has that back side energy pushing south behind the SW to help fling it out.