Wonderdog

6z GFS depicting at least 12 hours of rain on Monday for NOVA and DC. Amounts unknown.

Hopefully with no La Nina this Winter, we can experience a winter with multiple chances to track storms!

Wouldn't be surprised if the hard left is overdone. We'll see though.

18z run has subtle changes which is enough to give rain up to NOVA. Still with the loop and then a weird look to it. Hard to explain by this wannabe.

Good point. A little change in latitude could have bigger changes down the line.

I think Fredericksburg close their school systems for Thursday and Friday yesterday.

I'm gonna look on the bright side. 1. The GFS doesn't move as far south or west as the EURO with its loop. 2. We most likely get some showers from Florence from either model. 3. The stalling segment of the storm while not unprecedented is still unusual. 4. Two days ago, hardly any of the above was on the table, except the GFS's stall. And we're still two days away. 5. It's a tropical system and they are notoriously unique. And none of the above has occurred yet. So does anyone have confidence in the current guidance? I think there are a few changes yet to occur. That's the best this weenie can do.

Not too much in SC though.

The only thing governments can do wrong with this storm is to not prepare.

All day the scenario has been west , southwest and now south/southwest. I could be wrong but where I come from that's a trend, regardless of the final outcome and the reason. But I'm guessing a strong ridge is responsible for this.

So if nothing else, the consensus is that northbound is closed, which means we're out.

Look out Memphis.

Eyeballing the differences between the 0Z and 6Z GFS runs, It appears that the loop is less severe on the 6Z run thereby keeping the track more to the east through the Carolinas into Virginia. Something to watch with the upcoming 12Z run.

Of the three, was the UKIE first to this solution, knowing there may be other changes in the days ahead?

At 90 hrs, 4 MB stronger than at 6z