Wonderdog

Typhoon Tip and others in the New England thread don't pay much attention to the Climate models. They just expect " the rust colors to be spread throughout most of the country". Keep the faith Bristow and pick up a new "toy"!!

Just saw the 0z GFS Halloween storm. When do we start a Halloween storm thread?

Doesn't look too good for NOVA. Any front or storm seems to disintegrate as it passes over the Appalachian mts. Getting dry imby.

That looks like 2009-2010 at least for our region, and a lot of forecasters got it right!

What caused the MJO to overwhelm last year?

What good is global warming if we don't get hit?

What keeps these storms from penetrating the southeast coastline. I know we've had storms come inland in the past (Hugo for one) but it seems lately that most just don't cut it. So the 18z GFS run shows the future tropical storm come right up to the coast, meander a bit, then off to the NE. Does it have to do with a lack of steering currents near the coast? Is it coincidence? Or does the Gulf Stream have anything to do with it?

Very busy along the Canadian border isn't it.

EEURO hugging the NC coastline at 12z. Need one more frame to see if meaningful rain gets west of DC.

Significant changes from 6z GFS on 8/30/19 to 6z GFS today at 6z on next Thursday. Yesterday Dorian was depicted to be, looks like just north of Tampa and today it's shown just off the SC/NC coast at that time. Cool front is swinging thru and a strengthening HP in Wisc. is affecting the track, I presume. I'm sure their are a myriad of other factors affecting Dorian also. Very complicated and above my pay grade. Seems like there is a different look with every model run along the Canadian border that has some possible impact on Dorian. Fun to track. Also notice some snow in NE Canada

I think we have a trend showing up in the two sets of runs.

12z EURO looks to skim FL coast.

At this rate, maybe Trump could have gone to Poland.

Lots went with that type of forecast in 2009/2010 and they were spot on. Now that was a NINO.Are NINO's easier to interpret in the long range?

Watch that blob SE of FL develop into a TS to take the place of the now missing storm.