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Conway7305

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  1. Conway7305

    March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE

    I know this storm is mostly a bust but HRRR looks interesting. Shows more precip filling into VA.
  2. Conway7305

    March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE

    Agreed! Lots of moving parts here. On the flip side, this could also end up being big for many . I am hoping this storm takes on some Miller A features. Dips south enough to tap more GOM moisture and rides up the coast. Right now it’s a transfer to the coast on GFS but 12 NAM looked liked it had more Miller A features based off my untrained eye.
  3. Conway7305

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    Richmond starts off as mix then goes to all snow Monday pre dawn based off 6z run. Decent accumulations as well.
  4. Conway7305

    March Mid/Long Range Disco 3

    I would love the snow totals to start looking like your profile image. That would be incredible. What storm was that by the way? Wow!
  5. Conway7305

    February Mid/Long Range Discussion

    If we’re going to get any legit storm chances it won’t be until later Feb and early March. La Niña winter isn’t helping. NAO still positive and AO positive. Several AO members look to negative by end of Feb. NAO potentially goes neutral or hopefully negative late month (of course those oscillation points always change). MJO looks to be stuck in phase 7 till towards end of Feb then hopefully move into phase 8.
  6. Conway7305

    February Mid/Long Range Discussion

    One big problem we have had all winter is a +NAO. It went positive around Dec 1st and doesn’t look to go negative anytime soon either. I’m learning here so cannot explain why it is staying positive for as long as it has, certainly seems like a unusually long duration. We need more blocking in this new pattern. MJO phases 8/1 may help towards the end of Feb into March hopefully.
  7. Conway7305

    January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    I’m still learning here so forgive my probably obvious observations...Sure is looking like significant pattern change ahead for Feb. AO index looks to tank by 2nd week of Feb. NAO index “as of now” looking to go potentially significantly negative. MJO is looking to enter colder phases 8,1,2. And PNA forecasting to go positive. I also hear EPO is favorable as well. If all go as planned, could be an epic Feb. How often do all the indexes align for us? Does this happen often?
  8. Conway7305

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    Thanks! Wouldn’t be surprised if this system overperformed even in NOVA.
  9. Conway7305

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    Latest HHHR run looks really good for RIC. Looks like precip shield is expanding west. Wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with 5+ inches.
  10. Conway7305

    JAN 4th Coastal

    Good to not wake up to another east shift. Short range models shifted slightly west this morning with a closed low closer to coast. Even GFS low is slightly west again of 0z. Eastern shore is in for a treat. Liking the RGEM!
  11. Conway7305

    New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

    Low right offshore Ft Lauderdale hr 63 NAM
  12. Conway7305

    New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

    Yep that low placement is west of 12z run
  13. Conway7305

    New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

    Looking like NAO data points have some more negative members around Jan 4-5. I know this could easily not verify but if index does go negative, might help our storm chances next week.
  14. Conway7305

    Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

    The NAO can make abrupt changes. It was suppose to go negative last week into this week then shifted course in a matter of days.
  15. Conway7305

    Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

    GFS did pick up first on backing off the big storm then other models caught on later. Will see if Happy Hour GFS delivers.
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