Kevin Reilly

67 already in Media Delaware County! Wow!

In reality so far what I have learned this year Winter of 2019 is never to trust any model beyond say 4 days anything after is an extreme crap shoot due to the chaotic pattern.

Climate Change I am sure may affect the index the most perhaps.

35 dewpoint 26 Media pa cloudy

I’ve been saying this for years Jan 7th 1996 PHL 31” negative NAO just to name a few.

30f Media Delaware County cloudy.

Now I know we are all looking for -EPO, -NAO -AO +PNA MJO SSWE etc. but what about the possibility that the warming ocean temps world wide is overwhelming the cooling produced by the melting polar ice caps. Yes, I am trying to link the possibility that whatever you want to call it global warming or climate change is at work here in regards to our weather patterns. It would appear to me that the overall warmth of the ocean especially the Pacific and the Atlantic is overwhelming the whole system with warmth and the lag time to get winter is increasing over time relative to normal. In North America for instance the continental arctic air is overwhelmed by the warming of the pacific for instance causing a storm track that just favors more regularly warmth flooding in from the Pacific. I mean 15" snowstorms along the East Coast Richmond to NYC are becoming like tracking hurricanes up the east coast in August to October. Kevin

How about comparison to hurricane Opal 1995 https://www.google.com/search?q=hurricane+opal&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-us&client=safari

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14653.5&y=5684.5&z=5&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=6&p%5B1%5D=31&opacity%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B1%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&hidden%5B1%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Invest 94 L also exploding too now over top of Bermuda I wonder what if any effect that Invest 94L has on Florence? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=94L&product=ir

The record warm waters cannot be ignored but the atmospheric dynamics and the interaction of the westerlies probably would be the reason Nick is saying it is hard to get a category 4 this far north. Now with that said Category 2-3 coming northbound would do enough damage with wind but especially flooding rains especially if this storm ventures up into the Mid Atlantic into Pennsylvania where all water ways and reservoirs are full to capacity. I mean really we received inches and inches of rain in August, had 3 inches in two hours last night, and 2-4" coming tomorrow into Monday from Remnant Gordon. Tough times ahead for sure if Florence moves like the 18z GFS depicts.

My best guess snow map for April 2nd 2am to 12 pm

Media Delaware County 10 miles west-southwest of Philadelphia International Airport 39f dew point 17f humidity 42% Wind NE at 6. It was 50f with a dew point of 22f at 5:30 pm.

32f moderate snow Media Delaware County coming up on 3” trees loaded very concerning