Kevin Reilly

Looking at this Eta is definitely on the eastern side of the track and strengthening. I got a friend in Cape Coral told him to batten down the hatches. Naples to Cape Coral Fort Myers up to Sarasota needs to pay very close attention. I would say Tropical Storm Warnings could be replaced by Hurricane warnings at 11 pm.

Yes definitely some southwesterly shear the low level center is exposed a naked swirl right to the southwest of the convection it is not far off but like all the other storms the mid level circulation is in control.

The models have it a weak system that eases out to sea off the Carolina coast.

At this point we look for signals but what is a bit troubling not only is the East Coast open to a hurricane strike a major ingredient to this scenario is a blocking high showing up in the Canadian Maritimes and its been there quite a few times now in the long range. I think we need to give it some credibility because up here in the northern latitudes there are definitely hints of changes to a fall like pattern with fairly large mid latitude storms just north of the Canadian border. Here is the system here crashing into extreme northeastern NC Virginia Beach 938-945 mb then to a position over Cheasepeak Bay at 964 mb then to the Eastern Great Lakes. Do I think its overdone maybe but we shall see.

Yep just looking for signals at this point.

Yep check out the vigorous shortwave out in Kansas moving into Misouri.

Total 1.47” in Media Delaware County we were hit twice. storm coming NE from Kamu country caused 40-50 mph winds for a time a few scattered power outages and trees down some lightning and thunder. second line came through with rolling low clouds and winds gusting from the NW 25-35 mph with lightning.

Hurricane Michael 2018 was raging and intensifying quickly before it slammed into Mexico Beach as a Category 5. The Panhandle of Florida is the northern Gulf Coast. Also Hurricane Opal October 4th 1995 was very destructive too as a Category 4 150 mph winds 916mb however like you said this one did weaken upon approach down to a Cat 3 of 115 mph. Picture of Hurricane Michael 2018

Yea here is your next threat September 12th take it with a grain of salt for now, but keep it in the back of your mind.

Clearly a mid latitude merger lots of wind damage 60-85 miles inland though here in PA with wind gusting to and past 70 mph for a time. Also hey how about the 2 feet of snow that was produced by the system in West Virginia it was a crazy storm.

I think one of the major things to consider with storm surge is the angle to which the storm hits the coast and speed along with the topography at the coast. Sandy took an abrupt left hand turn and hit the coast on the central New Jersey coast at a perpindicular angle at a pretty high forward motion. Like you said somewhere in the right quad of landfall with Laura there must of been at least a 14 foot storm surge but may have been in less populated areas and perhaps the marshes of southern Louisiana protected the coastline somewhat. Up here along the New Jersey coast there is no protections like this all barrier islands that are very susceptible to storm surge not only from hurricanes but also the winter hurricanes Nor'Easters.

What are the gusts I’d imagine towards 200 mph in places just above the ground correct?

I think she has peaked friction from land interactions now but all academic she’s a very strong Cat 4 150 mph and will make landfall as such.

I am thinking 120-135 mph at landfall. I think that dry air to the west of the center keeps her somewhat in check.

rapidly too!!! She's just sucking in everything right into the center. She's about to take off clearly shear has diminished and high pressure is building right over the top.