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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Me too here in Media 67f high at midnight? What in the world happened because I went to bed at 11:30 and it was 56??? -
E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Thanks Paul This is a long duration event and the flooding down along coastal sections is going to be quite significant from the back bays especially rolling through the coastal communities. So far here in Media highest wind gust 42 mph and total rain thus far is 0.15" but steady heavier rain is rotating SW down the I-95 corridor so I suspect wind and rain increases over the next hour to two then roll through the rest of the day and evening calming down a bit after midnight tonight. We have a few larger branches, leaves, saw 1 tree down and scattered power outages here around 8 am this morning along Baltimore Pike in Media maybe fixed by now. I have had people asking me if this is January 1-2 feet of snow? I am not sure about that because of the very warm Atlantic and proximity of storm even coming on shore this screams very brief snow to wind swept rain in December to February winter months. Do we know if this is a warm core storm with any tropical characteristics or possibly subtropical? Thanks for your detailed and data rich posts. Kevin Here is 40th and Central in Sea Isle currently significant flooding on gong high tide looks like 2-4 feet of water there in the street. Not sure what it looks like along Landis Avenue in the 50's to 80's streets. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
A couple of big bangs of thunder a breeze maybe 15 mph and picked up a whopping 0.10" here in Media. It almost looked like the radar did not match what was happening at the surface here. The lightning around our area was impressive from the surrounding areas but that here was only thing really noteworthy with these storms. Before the storms came 86f humidity 75% dew point was 74f felt like 94f Now: 74f humidity 89% dew point 71 serious waste of calm conditions and just still latent heat here, but I am sure that was dished out in other areas. The ring of fire. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Total rainfall in Media, Delaware County 1.08". Let's see if we get anything else tonight. Not sure looks like everything is north getting belted north and west. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
I’m pretty sure the actual low pressure probably like 1010 mb passed right overhead here in central Delaware County looking at the cloud and wind vectors visually. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Wow Clouds have suddenly switched direction NNE to SSW cold front is through winds gusting out of the NNE 30-40 mph brilliant blue skies appearing almost like a tropical system is leaving. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Had an isolated heavy shower pop up earlier .10" in like 8 minutes guess round 1 at 3:15 pm then partly sunny. Round Two was a tornado warning picked up .90" wind gusted maybe 25 mph one lightning strike not too impressive overly, but if you looked up clearly see the clouds moving all kinds of different directions so lots of shear with a jet stream right over top. Clouds now are just flying eastbound very rapidly winds west gusting to 30 mph currently front through. I am sure there will be some confirmed tornado reports from today's event in the Mount Holly NWS area. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Severe thunderstorm watch moved to a tornado watch SE Pa points South and southeast -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
This seems underway just northeast of Dover Delaware moving NE into Southwestern NJ that is some pretty heavy-duty flooding rains there moving NE. -
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Kevin Reilly replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
1992 was also a time where the tropics in the Pacific was very active. Iniki hit the northwest Hawaiian Islands that year not too much different than this year so far. However, looks like even more hurricane activity could affect the Hawaiian Islands in the coming two weeks. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Yea it is dragging on unfortunately pretty much a zonal flow of 86-90 heat foreseeable future. Guess we are lucky we are not getting slammed with all the severe weather and flooding at least. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Thanks Paul still some Wildfire smoke upstairs going on. Smoke has been going on for days now. I would like to see the blue skies again instead of the milky whitish blue stuff. -
What is this hour 3,648 on the GFS a friend is asking?
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2026 C and E Pacific tropical activity
Kevin Reilly replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters
My friend's plane leaves for Honolulu Hawaii Friday, August 14th. He is taking a Hawaiian island cruise around all the islands. Looks like the GFS has a 985 mb storm and the Euro 997 mb storm making a direct hit on the big island before moving west and away. Looks like this system is a legitimate threat to Hawaii. Any updates from the more seasoned tropical guys here would be great. I am able to see the models and the water vapor maps / satellites etc. looks like a bit of shear and dry air to the north limiting development for now. Looks like the legitimate threat lies at 11 N and 143 W if I am looking at it correctly but almost looks like another up there at 15N and 139 W. It looks very active out there. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
There was wildfire smoke today. Not a lot but you could clearly see the milky white mixed in with the scattered clouds today. I am going to guess this wildfire smoke is coming from Washington and Montana and southern Canada as our flow is originating in Washington to Montana to the Dakotas upper mid-west then to us. Fairly zonal flow northern tier before the peel off abruptly to the southeast to our southwest. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Picked up 0.13” pretty good down pour after they left think I was smelling wild fire smoke again. Yes pretty humid 70f humidity 96% dew point 69f -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
I was out doing some yard work around 3 pm and it looked like there was wild fire smoke blocking out the sun again right before the line of thunderstorms came in from the west and northwest down here in Media Delaware County. We didn't get much here winds gusting maybe 25 mph a few elevated flashes of lighting and 0.45" of rain. We are adding to the bucket a bit more as things have stalled out to our south and rain is running east over top currently. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Anyone have official NWS rainfall totals for the area? I said 2 days ago that the area will see 3-6” of rain Saturday to Monday night and I’m being questioned lol??? -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Poof all tornado watches dropped you could tell being outside it’s pretty stable out there along the surface. Thank the cold ocean temps. -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
35f a bit of drizzle left over. picked up 1” of snow quite impressive after being 83f Total snow for year 36.8” Actually snow has begun again 35f -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
36f moderate snow grass whitening. So high here yesterday was 83f Great turn around! -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Sure why not 77f tomorrow 2-4” Thursday sounds right. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
32f humidity 79% dew point 26f sleet freezing rain a few darting snow flakes. Last flakes of the year possibly. slight sleet accumulation on cars at the moment. You can tell this will not last long and should be rain very soon. I was out on the roads there are no weather related issues in central Delaware County. Roads loaded with salt too. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
That fateful night in February 2017 when a 978mb storm cruised over Erie and we had winds gusting to 60-70 mph out of the SSW with tornado warnings was from that night on when our winters have been pretty bad. Perhaps we have turned the corner, but we will have to see as we go through spring, summer, fall 2026 to see what’s waiting on the other side. I give this winter an A break down: Cold: A+ Snow A Precipitation dry stretches C Snow melt rate: A- Tracking: A Freezing Creeks, Streams, Ponds, River, Bays, Cold Ocean: A+ Blocking: A- -
Outta gas and Outta Time: Early March Winter Storm finale
Kevin Reilly replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
From Hurricane hunters
