Kevin Reilly

67 already in Media Delaware County! Wow!

In reality so far what I have learned this year Winter of 2019 is never to trust any model beyond say 4 days anything after is an extreme crap shoot due to the chaotic pattern.

Climate Change I am sure may affect the index the most perhaps.

35 dewpoint 26 Media pa cloudy

I’ve been saying this for years Jan 7th 1996 PHL 31” negative NAO just to name a few.

30f Media Delaware County cloudy.

Now I know we are all looking for -EPO, -NAO -AO +PNA MJO SSWE etc. but what about the possibility that the warming ocean temps world wide is overwhelming the cooling produced by the melting polar ice caps. Yes, I am trying to link the possibility that whatever you want to call it global warming or climate change is at work here in regards to our weather patterns. It would appear to me that the overall warmth of the ocean especially the Pacific and the Atlantic is overwhelming the whole system with warmth and the lag time to get winter is increasing over time relative to normal. In North America for instance the continental arctic air is overwhelmed by the warming of the pacific for instance causing a storm track that just favors more regularly warmth flooding in from the Pacific. I mean 15" snowstorms along the East Coast Richmond to NYC are becoming like tracking hurricanes up the east coast in August to October. Kevin

How about comparison to hurricane Opal 1995 https://www.google.com/search?q=hurricane+opal&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-us&client=safari

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14653.5&y=5684.5&z=5&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=6&p%5B1%5D=31&opacity%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B1%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&hidden%5B1%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Invest 94 L also exploding too now over top of Bermuda I wonder what if any effect that Invest 94L has on Florence? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=94L&product=ir

The record warm waters cannot be ignored but the atmospheric dynamics and the interaction of the westerlies probably would be the reason Nick is saying it is hard to get a category 4 this far north. Now with that said Category 2-3 coming northbound would do enough damage with wind but especially flooding rains especially if this storm ventures up into the Mid Atlantic into Pennsylvania where all water ways and reservoirs are full to capacity. I mean really we received inches and inches of rain in August, had 3 inches in two hours last night, and 2-4" coming tomorrow into Monday from Remnant Gordon. Tough times ahead for sure if Florence moves like the 18z GFS depicts.

My best guess snow map for April 2nd 2am to 12 pm

Media Delaware County 10 miles west-southwest of Philadelphia International Airport 39f dew point 17f humidity 42% Wind NE at 6. It was 50f with a dew point of 22f at 5:30 pm.

32f moderate snow Media Delaware County coming up on 3” trees loaded very concerning

32f Media Delaware County coming up on 3” trees are loaded!

I will say high resolution models need serious consideration looking at the incredible dynamics that will be occurring I actually would side with them. Here is my snow map

Hey go check it out the Philadelphia Forum it's live and kicking just posted my snow map your area is included lets all pray we get snow

This will be my snowfall map that I will just stay with from earlier

GFS basically zero red line south and east would be screwed here in Media Delaware County but this makes sense in a weak situation without dynamics rain may be the case of rain here in Media with a few darts passing through while Red Sky Country is snowing with 2-4" on the grass.

GFS Says nothing up this way too just outside of Philadelphia in Delaware County

Problem I see for 95 DC Baltimore to PHL high is east northeast of NJ moves out pretty fast cold not locked in screams minimal snow to rain with east winds

Interesting because this year thus far is very close temp wise and total snowfall thus far.

That average there has some monsters in it too Feb 11th 1983 and Feb 23rd 2010 at least down here in Media Delaware County.

Yep all about missing the connections by 6-8 hours would make the difference what you get in a progressive flow with minimal blocking.