Kevin Reilly

No rain to speak of here. 56f humidity 95% dewpoint 55f Wind NE gusting to near 40 mph.

Think that was January 1989 or 1988 one of those years? Someone check I am curious now.

My fear is that the very warm Pacific and Gulf of Mexico just flood the lower 48 with warm air in conjunction with the southeast ridge which has been happening more often than not over the past 5-8 years. Always seems we get a powerful Pacific Jet extension that just overwhelms the weather pattern flooding the lower 48 with warm air and locking the cold way north.

Here is your clue we are getting nothing of significance when it comes to rain: Dewpoint at 8:30 pm last night 61 dewpoint right now 50f Dry air is winning out up here as it is filtering in from the NNE. Had a wind gust here of 36 mph. The sun has been peeking out from time to time too. Typical La Nina coastal where the blocking gives way and the storm just cannot get going because all the pieces of the storm do not phase together. This is our calling card probably for the Winter of 2025-2026 with this storm right here. Maybe we can lucky and score a weak La Nina and get us into the Winter of 1995-1996?

Here is your clue we are getting nothing of significance when it comes to rain: Dewpoint at 8:30 pm last night 61 dewpoint right now 50f Dry air is winning out. Had a wind gust here of 36 mph.

That looks like I winter storm disappointment map; and so it begins! thinking we are getting 1-2 feet of snow and reality is 3-6" maybe?

Models are really backing off. Weaker storm almost looks like it splits in 2.

0z Model runs are trouble up and down the East Coast Outer Banks to North Jersey.

0z Model runs are absolutely trouble for the Jersey and Delaware Beaches all the way to the Outer Banks, get ready!

I wonder if we get a “Folks”!!!!

0.14” here today. That coastal storm has trouble written all over it for the coast especially the Carolinas to Long Island coastal flooding threat is very high if development and track follows both the Euro and Gfs. Major Coastal Flooding Carolinas to possibly as far north as Long Island.

Major Coastal Flooding Carolinas to possibly as far north as Long Island.

The 12z runs completely diverged on this idea of a coastal storm next week think we need a few days to iron this one out. I am not sure what the NAO is showing for next week cannot see it on the NWS website (government shutdown maybe?) Looks like the models are trying to trend toward blocking the storm from coming up the coast albeit it only one set of models runs except the 12z gfs so wait and see time.

I would bet on it! Extremely warm Pacific Waters Record Breaking actually, Record Breaking Gul of Mexico Water Temps for September and October all time, and a toasty southwestern Atlantic we are pretty screwed east of the Appalachians warm air flooding in all directions.

Yea this looks like a depression now or by 11 am as you said. Humberto is pretty far away east from this system. It’s obvious that Humberto turns out to sea gotta wait to see how high pressure builds into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic to put the block in place to initiate movement towards South Carolina, then the stall of Imelda, followed by the bounce off the high to the north and deflection out to sea. Pretty simply put all about exact timing of players build and strength.

Looks like a center is going to form just north of Cuba on the north Cuban Coast / south of the Bahamas and lift north bound.

One thing that is constant on the models all of them is a blocking area of high pressure streaming down from Eastern Canada and off the New England Coast. Both of these systems Humberto and Imelda have no chance of getting north of say Outer Banks points northward. Looks like 18z GFS just changes everything and the westerlies take over along the East Coast and send everything packing up and heading out to sea it is plausible I suppose. I would say at this juncture that the Outer Banks points north are out of the woods from direct impacts, but we could be setting the stage for rough surf and waves from the systems themselves and also the tight pressure gradient from the high up north and the lows down south. Honestly these blocking highs up the coast in the Mid-Atlantic and to SE Canada and New England have been a steady feature going back to July and August. I would not let your guard down Florida to say Cape Fear NC and head any warnings as Neuman eluded to early. Looks like the blocking gates to the east will open to let Imelda to follow Humberto right out to sea as the blocking comes down from the north and the systems bounce east quite plausible.

Just south of Jamica.

Humberto yea moves towards Bermuda then out to sea. I am pretty sold on that. However, what is south of Puerto Rico I am not so sure. That would become Tropical Storm Imelda. I would think Imelda is a threat to the United States East Coast South Carolina to New England. Humberto leaves stage right then high pressure builds and traps Imelda forcing Imelda toward the United States East Coast next week. Time to watch, I think. I am always weary of tropical systems developing in September and October down near Puerto Rico Hatti because chances are they are heading up the east coast with troughness around to our west and high pressure to the east. See below I’d say time to monitor.

Total rain down here in Media the other day was 0.48" not too bad actually.

Think I heard it was a cold core storm, but honestly the radar representation screams a subtropical or weak tropical storm for sure. Ocean water temps there NE North Carolina to VA Beach probably low to mid 70's.

Here in Media we have 0.45" for the month lol.

What is this rain? zero percent chance of rain today? 66 light to moderate rain here currently. Humidity 85% dew point 59f I am guessing an upper air disturbance is developing overhead in conjunction to near by cold front. You can see the seeds of winter 2025-26 we would be getting mood flakes right now as colder air rushed in.

Today's high 94f after a low of 70f Sunny all day. Rainfall today Total: Trace a few drops at 9:20 pm lightning east. Currently 78f humidity 86% dewpoint 74f

Yea so Erin is kind of the lead running back to scour out the remaining Saharan Dust and dry air opening the door to other features as we move towards the peak of hurricane season.