Kevin Reilly

Thats probably later tonight and tomorrow morning I would think.

Yea I was there too in Kitty Hawk. The weather was terrible August 2nd to 9th the water was like brown chocolate every day double red flag warnings.

I think this is 3 years in a row with a Category 5 Hurricane breaking records for date / time / location that to me is enough for pause and wonder as we track hurricanes. Tracking Hurricanes is more than just watching them barrel onshore if it comes to that, but rather learning from them to see how they track, what most effects their track and how it is connected to the overall world climate picture, weather patterns, and even ocean currents.

Totally agree looks like dry air and northerly shear taking its toll too. Erin does not look healthy at all on all satellite IR and water vapor.

I think but I am not sure (just looking to learn) is the trough upper air disturbance here in the Northern Mid-Atlantic the thing that will kick Erin east? Or perhaps this has nothing to do with the steering currents for future Erin. I mean here the weather forecast has been majorly blown today at very short leads. It was supposed to be Mostly Cloudy and 73f here today 0% of rain. Reality it is 62f humidity 96% dewpoint 62f with a northeast wind. It has been light rain and drizzle since 7:15 am rain moving NE to SW here. I am wondering if the models are missing something with this system that could affect the track of Erin way to our south? Thanks for feedback and comments.

Here in Media we have 0.45" for the month lol.

What is this rain? zero percent chance of rain today? 66 light to moderate rain here currently. Humidity 85% dew point 59f I am guessing an upper air disturbance is developing overhead in conjunction to near by cold front. You can see the seeds of winter 2025-26 we would be getting mood flakes right now as colder air rushed in.

Today's high 94f after a low of 70f Sunny all day. Rainfall today Total: Trace a few drops at 9:20 pm lightning east. Currently 78f humidity 86% dewpoint 74f

And they eye fills in and disappears when doing so looks like Erin starts getting shoved WSW a bit definitely going through a cycle now. I wonder what track implications this may have down the road we shall see.

How does 2024 July 1st Beryl rank

It is close, but I would say yes. At the very least it's on the FAR southern part of the cone pretty much moving west. Erin will do what she wants right now for the time being until the weakness in the ridge opens up. If anyone else wants to chime in great I am just comparing the NWS cone to the current satellite loops including water vapor maps.

Yea so Erin is kind of the lead running back to scour out the remaining Saharan Dust and dry air opening the door to other features as we move towards the peak of hurricane season.

I guess we should ignore the direct strike at Daytona beach in 11 days August 26th?

Looking at the overnight trends of the models and current state of the developing pattern; I am comfortable to say outside of high surf and rip currents, Erin is no threat to the East Coastlines. Bermuda though still needs to keep an eye to see how close it can get with effects though.

This is click bait fodder and a waste of time. It's intended to get website traffic. Quite frankly in my opinion in a meteorological culture / community its created fabricated stories that cause unnecessary anxiety and concern. This is the type of nonsense that causes people not to take "Real Dangers" seriously and potentially cause great harm all in the name of "fame" or "making money through clicks" There is very little in any support for ideas posted above at this time from what I can see. This is a waste.

Great Post!!! This is exactly what I was talking about earlier this morning. Erin is going to be ingesting in significant dry air looking at the push NE to SW from Sarhan Africa especially with that well defined broad circulation. I do predict moderate level of keeping in check and its likely to weaken as it moves west bound and possibly redirected west-southwest for a time due to the nature of the flow. That is an absolute brick wall of dry air. Erin's forward speed towards that brick wall is going to play a significant role as to what's going to happen from this very point clear on into the next 3-5 days because it is moving in tandem with this dry air layer from Africa moving west and southwest from Sarhan Africa.

Models should be interesting today. Out ahead of Erin you can clearly see the push from NE to SW coming off the Sarhan Dust Fields of Africa. This flow is trying to reassert itself as Erin moves generlly west. I would think that this fairly robust NE to SW motion of drier air will do two things keep Erin in check possibly even a period of weakening and force Erin more south or even southwest for a time as she heads generally westbound. I think this is what to watch now and until nearing the Leeward Islands over the next two days. The models may need to adjust to this possibility over time.

Well we did do historic last year with Beryl very far south and a Category 5 on July 1st so who knows.

The 18z GFS has it at 950 mb clearly took steps westward. That is a bit concerning being that the model error at this lead is at least 300-400 miles any given direction. We are in watch mode if this trends a bit further west over the next three days or so.

On this ensemble at least looking at the players on the field the center of the high way out in the Eastern Atlantic would allow this to turn north or even continue westbound depending on high up north along the Eastern States. Now what is exactly going on along the east coast will tell the tale to where exactly this will go. I mean right now (and caveat is right now) there is quite a bit of blocking going on off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts the Carolinas by no means are out of the woods at this long lead or up into the Middle Atlantic and Northeast.

Flash Drought!!!! Where's Drought Guy?? I may have cut the back yard for the last time this year. Yea, right we know what's next a Hurricane coming up from the Carolinas!

I would definitely watch this feature. My friend that lives along a canal in Cape Coral just NW of Fort Myers says that the canal is up to the top and water rises of about 2-3 feet are common right now. Looks like weak shear environment or about to be soon and steering currents look like South-southeast to NNW towards the Florida Panhandle. Looks like the upper air low sitting on top of Houston Texas and a push westbound will be the main steering features right about now. Unrelated to this but the blocking up north is very evident. Everything is moving from Halifax Nova Scotia all the way to Chicago all the way north and south. That is quite the blocking signal.

Also, shows a north Atlantic block that is noteworthy.

What that storm did do is up well the waters pretty good here in Kitty Hawk water temp has gone from 84 to 75 in the past day or so; I am sure this is temporary.

18z gfs there goes the blocking in the Atlantic which is not much different than is going on right now. Gives me Hugo 1987 vibes a bit.