Kevin Reilly

I’m fine with Hurricane. He’s a Terrific forecaster but honestly looK where we’ve been. I mean even this year at times has been quite progressive or too blocky no real in between. The highlights of this winter will be for most 10” of snow followed by almost 4” of sleet, weeks of VERY cold, and this storm here and what it will probably produce. This is going to have to be perfect alignment and even a few runs ago days ago who really believed we would be here I will say this also the happenings out west, 80f falling to single digits in Nebraska, the tornado event in Illinois and Indiana, and this potential monster east coast storm I believe marks the signal end of La Niña and welcomes us into a weak to moderate El Niño. It is time. Seems like La Niña has been going strong since our Tornado filled night back in February 2017. Remember the last time we had a moderate El Niño 2009-2010.

Precip looks like scattered thunderstorms on a radar during summer

I mean is it just me or are all these models showing very small noise level shifts and other models still seem to be catching up. At this point it’s time to bring up the water vapor map circle the northern stream and southern vorts and extrapolate.

Surface still trying to catch up to upper level conditions it also shows up as rain.

February 11th 1983

Thunderstorms

Nam is like 24” I-95 corridor by 7 am Monday more towards the coast

Looked like 8 am rain / snow mixed then going boom after 2 pm southeast moving northwest of all things.

For who Albany

Haven’t seen an eye feature in a while this looks like February 2010.

Model noise

Noise

So…. Media Delaware County: gfs 23.1” Euro 3.7” all righty then. go ahead issue the winter storm watch for 4” or more with wind gusts to 35-40 mph check back later.

I don’t mean to be a wennie but we know this isn’t happening. I’m not buying it still I’ll go down with the ship. Even if everything did come together warmer grounds / 50 degrees tomorrow totals of 20-30” probably are more like 12-16” but still wow. I’m very very interested to see how this unfolds and it’s been a very enjoyable ride of learning these model outputs with this particular set up.

I see the gfs is picking up on the sleet and warm tounge again.

Don’t forget warm grounds, recently warmer temperatures, and the increased sun angle will cut these snow totals in half.

If you came dressed like Bethoven with the OMG Folks Avatar look they would know what your talking about pbp gfs.

Ralph what is Hurricane saying now?

I’m with Hurricane. I see a very clear STJ but clearly looking over water vapor maps to me looks pretty progressive eastward and zonal especially the southern branch and I’d suppose northern jet in time once that ridge flattens out in the mid west mountain west. I’m just not in the big snowstorm camp at this time either.

Wait I’ve seen a map just like this one not too long ago when Outer Banks was burried.

23” with 50 mph winds out of the west with snow 2” an hour February 10th 2010. It was a MONSTER!! Never have I seen 50 mph winds out of the west with 2” hour rates for 2 hours straight a really crazy storm. It looked like a huyricsnd hurricane east of Ocean City Maryland.

That’s a laugh. unremarkable here. Drizzle 40s upper 30s 3:00 to 7:00 snow mixed with rain from 7:30 to 11:45 33f We had snow 11:50 to 2:00 am result 0.03” of snow rain total 0.19” models gfs and HRRR consistently showed 2-4” here were terrible even amount of precipitation would not have produced that here. Model score card for central Delaware County F.

Probably touching 49-52 here in the lower lands so I’d say most of our pack should be gone by Friday or so especially if we add a bit of rain minus piles.

Anyone have a good feed video for 3-6 feet of snow in Lake Tahoe.

Already can make out the warm tongue / nose coming NW up the Delaware Bay / Delaware River on that snow map least of our worries lol.