Kevin Reilly

Hour 384 in regard to tropical development minus well be hour 1000+. This scenario will change at least 10x before we even get to hour 200 let alone 384. Interesting to look at but whether it is the 18z gfs or even this 0z Euro run for it to play out this way is unlikely. The only thing that these model runs tell me is that there will be an uptick in activity and wait and see what happens over the next 3-5 days. What I have noticed is that the models are pushing everything back 5-10 days which is also a typical caveat of modeling. What happened last year we were searching for 10 days out and hour 384 etc. and then we had storms like Hurricane Heleen blow up out of nowhere which could be the case this year. I would not watch 384 hours out but rather just make sure we are not missing something closer in time. I think the next 3-4 days of model watching and looking at other things like the visible and water vapor maps will be useful tools to locate harmless little low level or mid-level swirls that become something bigger in time. Mean time here in Kitty Hawk where I still am the strong gusty NE winds have begun again, and the beaches are once again closed to swimmers due to heavy surf and dangerous rip currents under 82-85 water temps.

Ehh even if that develops it will just ease off to the east and east northeast once it gets to the latitude of say Cape Fear NC.

Sea Surface temps up the east coast are a bit concerning for a tropical system IF atmospheric conditions are right to maintain its energy well northward up the coast. Now with how wet it has been minus the last week in the Mid Atlantic up to NYC and northern New Jersey could be setting up for a few rough weeks from now until say August 25th depending on what both systems do up the East Coast. System #1 Late week into the weekend and early next week System #2 August 15th to 20th sitting out in the western MDR right now. Case in point I am in Kitty Hawk NC right now and ocean water temps have been running 82-85 on the regular since I have been here Saturday.

Pretty cool here in Kitty Hawk NC 76 dew point 58 with winds screaming in from the NE 20-35 mph double red flag warning no one allowed in the 6-8 foot surf. I’m pretty sure the ocean water temp is like 82 too crazy times.

So long it doesn't visit me in Kitty Hawk Outer banks I am fine. I will be there August 2nd to August 9th.

I saw a few flying around in the backyard 2 total while I was cutting the grass this on Monday. The hornets typically nest into my small hill along the driveway in mid-July I don't see them yet.

I mean those two maps basically follow normal climatological patters of the Atlantic Ocean over many years from what I can remember really. I see nothing that screams we will not see normal to above normal hurricane activity this season. However, it screams East Coast impacts which was my thinking earlier last week.

Seriously Paul, I am becoming more and more concerned for our area when the tropics visit later in the season due to all these areas picking up 3-8" of rain off and on daily. Water temp down here in Sea Isle had to be close to 80f last two days just walk right on in the water zero getting used to any inkling of cooler waters. I saw an official report of 82f down in Cape May yesterday. I am not exactly sure what it is here in Sea Isle but yesterday last two days I would estimate 78-79f or so. There have been three days of east then southeast winds down here currently winds are pretty light and generally west-southwest at like 3 mph. I can envision tropical systems turning up the east coast this year as the current trough lifts out and retrogrades west or northwest bound you can almost see it coming.

Sounds good Paul! Hopefully I don’t get water into the basement coming off the roof too quickly. I’m down in Sea Isle right on the beach at 69th Street. Looks like ocean water temp is about 77f

I’m here 69th and the beach amazing shots! Almost looks like sunrise.

Just a few left over drops of rain 72f humidity 98% dewpoint 72f Total Rainfall: 2.90"

Looks like another tornado warning down in Sussex County Delaware Moving NE towards Delaware Bay currently. Thats an impressive line down to our south. Looks like a mesoscale low just south of the Delaware Memorial Bridge moving NE at 20 mph or so.

Light to moderate rain some left over lightning and loud thunder. 69f humidity 97% dew point 69f Total rainfall: 2.52"

Looks like a new area focusing right along the Delaware River down to Delaware Bay. Looks like a mesoscale low just west of Dover Delaware moving NE.

Moderate rain lightning thunder no wind 70f humidity 97% dewpoint 69f Total Rainfall so far: 2.40" all falling since 7:15 pm.

Currently 73f humidity 95% dewpoint 72f Cloudy light rain left over and some lightning streaking across the sky especially south thunder. Total rainfall 0.28" (that is it)

No doubt that happened here!

mesoscale low very impressive and evident.

Still sunny here gathering clouds west and southwest very low rumble of thunder way off in the distance. Sunny 93f feels like 103 humidity 53%

Good outflow aloft. Looks like depression to me or even a 40-45 mph Tropical Storm Chantal. Small Upper level low just southeast of Atlanta Georgia and dry air punching in from the northwest should limit development but also should tug what could become Chantal towards the southeast South and North Carolina coastline before gradually moving back off to the northeast. Another interesting area well to the east of the Bahamas. Things waking up a bit out there.

Guess drought is done or been done.

Hopefully things will move progressively which could become the case. I will be in Kitty Hawk first week of August good times in the Banks, but yea better weather is preferred.

Total rainfall from everything yesterday and this morning was 0.63" so we were stuck between bandings subsidence.

79f humidity 92% Cloudy a few drops some thunder far distance. Had a rogue lightning strike that temporarily knocked out the tv. So far trace of rain kind of meh so far.