Kevin Reilly

The 12z runs completely diverged on this idea of a coastal storm next week think we need a few days to iron this one out. I am not sure what the NAO is showing for next week cannot see it on the NWS website (government shutdown maybe?) Looks like the models are trying to trend toward blocking the storm from coming up the coast albeit it only one set of models runs except the 12z gfs so wait and see time.

I would bet on it! Extremely warm Pacific Waters Record Breaking actually, Record Breaking Gul of Mexico Water Temps for September and October all time, and a toasty southwestern Atlantic we are pretty screwed east of the Appalachians warm air flooding in all directions.

Yea this looks like a depression now or by 11 am as you said. Humberto is pretty far away east from this system. It’s obvious that Humberto turns out to sea gotta wait to see how high pressure builds into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic to put the block in place to initiate movement towards South Carolina, then the stall of Imelda, followed by the bounce off the high to the north and deflection out to sea. Pretty simply put all about exact timing of players build and strength.

Looks like a center is going to form just north of Cuba on the north Cuban Coast / south of the Bahamas and lift north bound.

One thing that is constant on the models all of them is a blocking area of high pressure streaming down from Eastern Canada and off the New England Coast. Both of these systems Humberto and Imelda have no chance of getting north of say Outer Banks points northward. Looks like 18z GFS just changes everything and the westerlies take over along the East Coast and send everything packing up and heading out to sea it is plausible I suppose. I would say at this juncture that the Outer Banks points north are out of the woods from direct impacts, but we could be setting the stage for rough surf and waves from the systems themselves and also the tight pressure gradient from the high up north and the lows down south. Honestly these blocking highs up the coast in the Mid-Atlantic and to SE Canada and New England have been a steady feature going back to July and August. I would not let your guard down Florida to say Cape Fear NC and head any warnings as Neuman eluded to early. Looks like the blocking gates to the east will open to let Imelda to follow Humberto right out to sea as the blocking comes down from the north and the systems bounce east quite plausible.

Just south of Jamica.

Humberto yea moves towards Bermuda then out to sea. I am pretty sold on that. However, what is south of Puerto Rico I am not so sure. That would become Tropical Storm Imelda. I would think Imelda is a threat to the United States East Coast South Carolina to New England. Humberto leaves stage right then high pressure builds and traps Imelda forcing Imelda toward the United States East Coast next week. Time to watch, I think. I am always weary of tropical systems developing in September and October down near Puerto Rico Hatti because chances are they are heading up the east coast with troughness around to our west and high pressure to the east. See below I’d say time to monitor.

Total rain down here in Media the other day was 0.48" not too bad actually.

Think I heard it was a cold core storm, but honestly the radar representation screams a subtropical or weak tropical storm for sure. Ocean water temps there NE North Carolina to VA Beach probably low to mid 70's.

Here in Media we have 0.45" for the month lol.

What is this rain? zero percent chance of rain today? 66 light to moderate rain here currently. Humidity 85% dew point 59f I am guessing an upper air disturbance is developing overhead in conjunction to near by cold front. You can see the seeds of winter 2025-26 we would be getting mood flakes right now as colder air rushed in.

Today's high 94f after a low of 70f Sunny all day. Rainfall today Total: Trace a few drops at 9:20 pm lightning east. Currently 78f humidity 86% dewpoint 74f

Yea so Erin is kind of the lead running back to scour out the remaining Saharan Dust and dry air opening the door to other features as we move towards the peak of hurricane season.

I guess we should ignore the direct strike at Daytona beach in 11 days August 26th?

Flash Drought!!!! Where's Drought Guy?? I may have cut the back yard for the last time this year. Yea, right we know what's next a Hurricane coming up from the Carolinas!

I would definitely watch this feature. My friend that lives along a canal in Cape Coral just NW of Fort Myers says that the canal is up to the top and water rises of about 2-3 feet are common right now. Looks like weak shear environment or about to be soon and steering currents look like South-southeast to NNW towards the Florida Panhandle. Looks like the upper air low sitting on top of Houston Texas and a push westbound will be the main steering features right about now. Unrelated to this but the blocking up north is very evident. Everything is moving from Halifax Nova Scotia all the way to Chicago all the way north and south. That is quite the blocking signal.

What that storm did do is up well the waters pretty good here in Kitty Hawk water temp has gone from 84 to 75 in the past day or so; I am sure this is temporary.

The flow down here in Kitty Hawk has been NE and east since last Saturday. Temps in the 70's and water temp in the 80's. Currently cloudy patchy fog / drizzle 74f wind NE 20-30 mph.

Hour 384 in regard to tropical development minus well be hour 1000+. This scenario will change at least 10x before we even get to hour 200 let alone 384. Interesting to look at but whether it is the 18z gfs or even this 0z Euro run for it to play out this way is unlikely. The only thing that these model runs tell me is that there will be an uptick in activity and wait and see what happens over the next 3-5 days. What I have noticed is that the models are pushing everything back 5-10 days which is also a typical caveat of modeling. What happened last year we were searching for 10 days out and hour 384 etc. and then we had storms like Hurricane Heleen blow up out of nowhere which could be the case this year. I would not watch 384 hours out but rather just make sure we are not missing something closer in time. I think the next 3-4 days of model watching and looking at other things like the visible and water vapor maps will be useful tools to locate harmless little low level or mid-level swirls that become something bigger in time. Mean time here in Kitty Hawk where I still am the strong gusty NE winds have begun again, and the beaches are once again closed to swimmers due to heavy surf and dangerous rip currents under 82-85 water temps.

Ehh even if that develops it will just ease off to the east and east northeast once it gets to the latitude of say Cape Fear NC.

Sea Surface temps up the east coast are a bit concerning for a tropical system IF atmospheric conditions are right to maintain its energy well northward up the coast. Now with how wet it has been minus the last week in the Mid Atlantic up to NYC and northern New Jersey could be setting up for a few rough weeks from now until say August 25th depending on what both systems do up the East Coast. System #1 Late week into the weekend and early next week System #2 August 15th to 20th sitting out in the western MDR right now. Case in point I am in Kitty Hawk NC right now and ocean water temps have been running 82-85 on the regular since I have been here Saturday.

Pretty cool here in Kitty Hawk NC 76 dew point 58 with winds screaming in from the NE 20-35 mph double red flag warning no one allowed in the 6-8 foot surf. I’m pretty sure the ocean water temp is like 82 too crazy times.

So long it doesn't visit me in Kitty Hawk Outer banks I am fine. I will be there August 2nd to August 9th.

I saw a few flying around in the backyard 2 total while I was cutting the grass this on Monday. The hornets typically nest into my small hill along the driveway in mid-July I don't see them yet.

I mean those two maps basically follow normal climatological patters of the Atlantic Ocean over many years from what I can remember really. I see nothing that screams we will not see normal to above normal hurricane activity this season. However, it screams East Coast impacts which was my thinking earlier last week.