Kevin Reilly

Follow the bouncing baroclinic zone lol gfs will show 6-10” for PHL and sunny for the Poconos.

It will come back! I’ll be back!

January 1994

We are clearly in model roulette!!! Tonight at 11:18 we will get a “Folks”! lol I must say I’m having fun with this only because with the amount of cold coming it pretty much favors mostly wintery I hope. Let’s just say some kind of WildWeather is coming next week!

It’s the Doctor I don’t know model!

Wonder if gfs is chasing some smaller discreet energy out to sea when the real energy is sitting 500 miles further west getting ready to take the turn Northeast. I mean past gfs runs has snow and a low breaking out in central Tennessee then up into Kentucky through West Virginia towards us for snow Sunday afternoon and night.

It’s the discreet storms that we often look back and say hey that one was the beginning or ending to a great winter run!

Where we diverge is what happens when we reach the coast? Do we take a left hand turn north? Or do we take the straight and narrow road east-northeast and out to sea? It’s really a classic winter scenario that is in front of us with a true 50/50 shot Virginia on north? Pretty much all tied to how the Arctic high moves southeast and at what angle to entice a southeast ridge to pop to send the storm track northward in general. The hardest part right now for models and us is timing, spacing, and direction which will make all the difference. (PS I’m still trying to figure out the GFS hurricane off the Southern California coast. I thought it would be “erroneous” by now? Or the model is completely out to lunch!)

That is one tight wound up low off the Southern California coast.

Pretty sure around SE Pennsylvania it was like 6-8 degrees and heavy snow. Meanwhile it was like 2-4f in Trenton NJ with filtered sun through thick high clouds like serious cut off of 50 to 60 miles. Think we got like 20” fun times.

Looks like appetizers to Big Dog Storm! Classic times ahead!!

Think here Presidents Day 2003?

There is your temp contrast holy smokes!!! Talk about dynamite available.

This: “Also, plenty of jet energy and a ton of baroclinic zone contrasts next week. >>> This is how we get our stronger dynamic fun storms that are sometimes written about in past history!

Corrections have begun and the steps forward going forward,,, classic.

Looking at incoming pattern that’s coming north pretty confident not really caring about what the models show until 0z Thursday. I think Euro too extreme with NW push comes southeast and gfs comes NW to meet in the middle and hit for us.

The drought here never left.

That would be every event here. 4.88” for the season that’s it.

Thursday Night at earliest.

How about the Spire?

Anything that inspires like the spire as shown here by the GFS we have to lock it in!!

Winter is over great!

Let's Go!!

It’s moving back to what it showed at 6z

Gurantee that sharp cut off down in central Delaware and South Jersey will be right through my backyard in central Delaware County.