Kevin Reilly
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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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Tuesday Wednesday looks quite impactful 3-4" of rain and winds gusting to 50+ maybe wow. Throw that up north over 10" of snow its a problem.
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Kevin Reilly replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Pissing in the Delaware River, The Delaware Bay, The Chesapeake Bay, and the Atlantic keeping them warming up! Then they will continue flying south towards suppression. However, they know this is the season of the One and Done! I know someone back there was saying nickel and dime our way to 2-4" but looking at how things are right now think we have a better shot of the 20" snowstorm mid-west to the East Coast in time.
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Light Rain 35f humidity 95% dewpoint 34 Snowfall today 0.26" Sleet today 0.04" Rain today 1.08" Highest Wind Gust ENE 27 mph.
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Head for the Mid-West Elkhart Indiana might be good looks like they are gearing up for a Blizzard next weekend or maybe it trends 700 miles further east for us so check back to see if you should stay here.
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Kevin Reilly replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
11 Days out what could go wrong? -
34f humidity 96% dewpoint 33 wind NE gusting to 26 mph Heavy Rain with believe it or not mangled snowflakes darting through. 0.72" of rain in the gauge 0.26" of snow and sleet earlier some still left on cars and grass zero on paved surfaces flooding in poor drainage areas.
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No Blocking blame that too. If there was a better block, we all would have scored.
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32 humidity 92% dewpoint 29 freezing rain a few sleet pellets left icicles forming on wires and trees. Final snow fall total 0.26" On to the Transition Rain and Windstorms.
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31f humidity 91% dewpoint 29 moderate snow, sleet, freezing rain. Interesting that my temp at the surface dropped from 32f to 31f that's probably temporary no new accumulation. Getting some freezing rain accretion on the trees just a little though.
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32f humidity 85% dewpoint 28 sleet windy winds ENE 15-20 mph final accumulation 0.26" of snow oh well. We do indeed keep our less than an inch streak going at the airport uninterrupted.
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You forgot a few it runs off into the streams harms fish pollutes our drinking water and eats away at your brakes and undercarriage of the car.
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Media score card on HRRR since last night. 1.1” 0.7” 0.4” 0.2” 0.1” Yes we have a trend!! First Flakes 33f dp 25 humidity 73%
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Media 33f humidity 80% dewpoint 25 wind ENE 6
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Cloudy 32f humidity 78% dewpoint 25f
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It pays to be a Skywarn Spotter. I have central Delaware County Covered
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That NAM run was not all that great for the Lehigh Valley especially southern sections of the Lehigh Valley, but it's the Nam
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Have fun up there! I would take 10"+ in a minute. We will get ours down here in SE PA soon just got to get through the next two 40-70 mph 2-4" rainstorms!
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humidity values are 75-79% so precip should start rather quickly should not lose much to virga unless there is a dry layer.
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yep I am now at 26 dewpoint is 18. Temp has gone up from 24 to 26 in the last 35 minutes.
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25f humidity 77% dewpoint 17f wind NE 4 Maybe I get lucky and pick up 2" maybe?? Reality is probably 0.7" snow and 1.1" sleet.
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The hedging... RGEM gives 2-4" basically into central Delaware County now and Euro ticked colder nowcast written all over it. If these models are off by 3-4 degrees things change drastically right on the other side of 95 and 476 it has happened before. Currently I have 24 Channel 10 had me at 30 at 7:00 am umm I don't think so. This 6-degree difference could come in handy in 7-9 hours. I have a 17 dewpoint too with a NE wind at 4.
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Well models had me at 30 at 6:30 am I sit at 24 with a 17 dewpoint I will take. Well, well look at that Media on that map is like 4" yesterday I was sitting at 0.7"
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That's awfully late to be issuing a winter storm warning for a storm that starts in roughly 8-10 hours and you know it is coming.
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22f clear dewpoint 14 with humidity 66% moderate frost.
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The GFS and the Candian are adverting a WILD weather pattern I mean wow for the Chicago area 969 mb wow! Get that energy to the Atlantic please. I think we may be stepping that way in time. That Canadian there God that reminds me of February 1983! Pattern coming up Mother of God!
