Kevin Reilly

They Know!!!

important take away is cold high up north 1035mb.

Definitely back to old times! Next will be monitoring the rain snow line also back to old times. Love it!

So far so good! Reminds me of old times when things get better as we get closer; time will tell on this thought though.

Actually, the Geese know! Had at least 6 more flocks heading south here in extreme southeastern PA they are on your way enjoy!

Let's just go triple phase east of Hatteras please!

Yea huge improvements on the 18z GFS see if it holds going 0z and forward. Also has a monster storm on January 10th. I would say we have two threats one on the 7th and the 10th. The one on the 10th looks like the NAO is going from negative to positive both of these have my attention!! Let's watch!! The Geese know!! (I think that's going to be my snow call phrase, "The Geese know!!"

Ralph it is a wakeup call to Winter!!! It's coming!!! Get Ready!! Also, I saw my 7th flock of geese today flying due south! They know!!! Now with my rant earlier about warm ocean temperatures I suppose it is one of the necessary ingredients for our 20" snowstorms. I have a gut feeling we see one of these Biggies that gives us 20" just a gut even if it is only one of them.

Let's see what we can do but at day 700 with less than 1" of snowfall we are getting there. I cannot ignore the cyclic nature of this though. It most likely will change and around here and it often changes abruptly when most have given up (this guy). I do think interesting times are ahead!

How is Baltimore and DC doing anyone have their days?

Well, I feel sometimes my opinions are being ignored, but this is our new normal with the Warm Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Ocean, and Great Lakes and many other warm bodies of water are in complete control of our weather patterns. We can hope for a window of 2-4 weeks in February when the bodies of water hopefully cool down. We are also heading for Lake Effect snow season in February and March too. Things without doubt have certainly changed since the 70's, 80's, 90's, and past 23 years. Our snowstorm chances are like trying to track a hurricane strike in the summer along the East Coast. How about that 60-foot rouge wave out in California? I have not read up on that closely. What caused that? Waves out there on average 20-40 feet pretty cool but no doubt simply tied to the raging Pacific Ocean. Let's hope for snow! Back to my remembering the Blizzard of 1983. I am currently walking down my street in Northeast Philadelphia just surpassed 16" still coming down 2" an hour now we have graupel and lightning cool!!

I am done with that read I have gone through 2009-2010, 1996, The Ice Storm Jan. 1994, currently reading February 11th, 1983, fun storm.

Time to work on it though alas it is only December 30th for this January 7th window at this lead.

Thats a Chaotic look there: Lots of split flows pretty good split there in the Gulf of Mexico along southern branch and another out west near Los Angles heading all the way NNW to Alaska and another flow branches out into southern Arizona down to Mexico City. Now east of Edmonton and Calgary there is a pretty pronounced flow SSE from Northern and Central Canada pushing SSE down in the Mid-West and moving SSE into the Eastern United states this did not happen almost at all last year as I remember. So, maybe just maybe we are about to make the turn the cold air up north is well... relatively cold though and most likely will modify quite a bit. At least it is a bit more interesting to look at. Pennsylvania Water Vapor Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather

Lake Tahoe

Ditto that up here in Southeastern PA I saw about 5 flocks of geese heading SSE the other day before the heavy rain set in. I always calculated and observed this, and it snowed like 2 to 3 weeks later after I saw the flocks, just something to keep an eye on. Mother Nature always knows first!

Where is the cold high up north this would most likely be a cold air would it not?

Might want to take a look at 2009-2010 too to see exactly what was going on in that winter since it is an outlier over the past 20 years at this point. I mean 2009-2010 things were set up perfectly and held off an on for 3 months.

Nino: Let's just throw 3 inches of rain on top of your 20" of snow because that may be reality truly this winter! I would think that would cause some issues for the Mid Atlantic.

Finally, finally!! Some Agreement!

So, what we would be looking at is a continuation of what we have a cold shot or two otherwise a warm phase Nino.

On the otherside of the globe?

1.54" here in Media was out and about down route 1 into Springfield awful drive roads have a lot of run off Darby Creek rising fast! On the way home blinding rains approaching the Blue Route at Route 1.

I can't wait for later January and February when these storms are all snow!

JB just posted about how the upcoming period has the most severe cold potential of any period he's seen in years. Every year as we come out of Christmas like we are all looking for some dam late presents or something!