Kevin Reilly

I am thinking the first step to a better pattern is to get rid of the damm cut off low that moved west over the mid-west and is now beginning to move east.

1982-83 also featured one biggie as well. That was truly a one and done season. February 10-12th 1983 to be exact.

You missed one 1995-1996

Last I checked most of our snow climatologically speaking falls January 15th to March 2nd or so.

It often is in the long range or what that the old GFS?

Just need that high to be north of New York State can we manage that at this lead? It would be the first time in a while and I am sure the models would have no idea what do with that. The Models would be like "Oh Shit look a cold high!"

Well said! Think when the last time was a cold front blasted out of the Great Lakes and swung through well offshore with 35-45 winds behind it with temperatures falling from the 40's down into the teens and single digits.

As I recall not too long ago the last time, we got a SSW all the cold air dumped west of the Mississippi, and we went into the 60's and near 70 degrees. Also, the way things are set up right now a pattern change is not just going to happen overnight it will be a step back down into winter and it will likely take at least 10-15 days from this point to get rid of all the humidity, Pacific Air, Gulf of Mexico Air, and also Atlantic Air. It's just not the Pacific Air in the Lower 48 this year.

One thing it does have that all the other models have is no high to our north.

That is a reasonable correction.

It would appear outside of a few hits here in there 2016 and 2015 there have been fewer and fewer legit snow events DC to Baltimore, to Philadelphia, to New York. I trace this back to the winter of 2009-2010 that year when it comes to snow really stand out, but those storms that dumped on us in December 19th, 2009, and February 17th, 2010, were kind of unusual in the way they evolved and the extreme blocking that took place during those storms. I mean I had 40-50 mph winds out of the west on February 17th, 2010, with heavy snow coming down 2-3" an hour I do not recall any time in my lifetime where that happened. I am searching and searching for the reasons why we are in this snow drought, but it is not just DC, to Baltimore, to Philadelphia this is happening it's happening in a lot of places over the past 2-4 years. Obviously too small of a sample size to make too much sense yet. Are we in the warm El Nino Phase?

This has been the case for the past few years no cold high up north, warm air trapped at the surface, more and more cloudy nights holding temperatures higher, ocean air entrenched, high humidity levels you can make the inferences.

Warm air trapped at the surface, many many cloudy days with fog at night, and very high humidity levels, you just can't get rid of the warmth even with a great set up. Tracking a snowstorm in our area is like predicting a hurricane strike on the Mid Atlantic Coast.

Common theme no cold high up north.

Anytime I hear Gulf and cold enough air it makes me happy! I will drink to that!

I will take 1996 and 2010 for $1,000 Alex!

I am sure that segment would do very well today LOL. I do remember that always gave me hope in times of despair when it came to snow.

LOL did you see the 12z GFS the same storm was 972 275 miles out and on January 3rd. As I said it will come west it did now split the difference in 12z GFS and 18z GFS and BOOM!

If you split the difference from the 12z GFS and the Euro we get hammered with snow!

I can't disagree starting with that storm being further west on January 3rd. We look for the correction west.

I am not buying this on January 3rd, 2024, this is our storm. I think that is further west. I am just thinking back to runs from last week when this was closer to the coast too. I think the GFS is beginning to correct this look further west as a northern stream system tugs it back to the east coast. I am interested in this storm!

Warm air trapped at the lower levels and warm air seeping in off the Atlantic at 2,000-5,000 feet?

0.02" of rain in central Delaware County Mostly Cloudy currently a few breaks of snow here and there 48 degrees currently. We will be moving into the lower 50's should we see any sun today and certainly into the 50's tomorrow. The long-range forecast beyond January 1st shows some hope for cold and snow, but the annual push it back pushes it back clearly is at work here remember our days are now getting longer. Enjoy Christmas!

If you ask me these two maps scream a few things: 1. We are in the warm phase of El Nino. It's December 24th and those humidity charts are off the charts where is the cold dry air???? 2. It's going to be very difficult to move this moisture laden atmosphere out to establish cold air that is sustained. 3. The warming is well undeniable. I could see if it were July or August and we were looking at this humidity map, but even where it is cold it is humid?? 4. With that said warmer air holds more water and if it were to snow, I am sure it would be a 1-2 foot plus snowstorm. 5. These are our new normal I am afraid. 6. Any flow whatsoever off of a body of water Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic, and now even the Great Lakes warms various levels of the atmosphere especially lower and mid-levels, and this is another obstacle of snow in this new era. We definitely would need a pattern progression eastward to even sniff a chance.

Yea we have been lacking this block the storms from coming straight at us please and more importantly slow the dam pattern down to phase a few storms to our east and southeast, but not too far.