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Kevin Reilly

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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly

  1. Kevin Reilly
    24f humidity 85% dp 21f -SN to SN variable rates Total so far 0.60” main roads wet all others snow covered Total for the year: 2.48”
  2. Kevin Reilly
    Snow began at 6:10 am or so here in Media. Light snow 24.3f humidity 78% dp 18 total snow so far .20 all surfaces covered total snow for year 2.08”
  3. Kevin Reilly
    Come on me and Kamu can get this! Media lies about 8 miles from the Delaware line Kamu is probably 3-4 miles lets go!!
  4. Kevin Reilly
    Ralph did say be patient lol!
  5. Kevin Reilly
    Water Vapor map has a pretty good flow of moisture all the way to Detroit at this time and into the Great Lakes kind of interesting as everything starts moving off to the east. You can see the confluence in the Gulf of Maine. Pennsylvania Water Vapor Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather Just some interesting now casting tibits.
  6. Kevin Reilly
  7. Kevin Reilly
    Losing the lowering dim sun in the southwestern sky. 29f humidity 45% dewpoint 10 snow bar set at 3.6”
  8. Kevin Reilly
    Just need another 40-45 mile push northeast can it happen????
  9. Kevin Reilly
    To me coming to agreement on 2-4” extreme SE Pa south of the Turnpike 1-3” north of that then 1-2” Lehigh Valley to coating to 1” Poconos. The only wild card I can think of does the confluence lift out at the very last minute think the gfs showed this back on Fridays 12z run; something to keep an eye on.
  10. Kevin Reilly
    Hey Paul kuddos to you! Many days ago you were worried about the confluence and suppression and here we are! Damm!! Better luck next weekend? Hopefully the storm next weekend doesn’t cut to our west? That would be a disaster!
  11. Kevin Reilly
    And falling fast! I would expect it to move towards everything else. The confluence is just too strong for this system to punch any further northeast. It’s hitting the proverbial red light!
  12. Kevin Reilly
    Yep that’s it a total cave to Euro GFS and others. I’d expect the HRRR to follow suit 6+” pretty much dead at this point. general 2-4” turnpike south would think a downgrade from Winter Storm Warnings to advisory level for southeastern Chester to Delaware Counties we were always on the fringe honestly.
  13. Kevin Reilly
    Here is my first best guess of what is coming. I’ll adjust later this afternoon as needed.
  14. Kevin Reilly
    I’ll go with 4-6” down here in Media Delaware County
  15. Kevin Reilly
    Thought blue areas were requiring 4” T remembering from distant past off the top of my head?
  16. Kevin Reilly
    The HRRR maps look like the Euro runs 3 days ago
  17. Kevin Reilly
    Primary gets almost into SW pa this screams hand off to the coast and it will here on this run
  18. Kevin Reilly
    Hmmm
  19. Kevin Reilly
    Northern tier that’s going to be more than 10:1 that’s for sure
  20. Kevin Reilly
    Hmm that’s also 10:1 temps around 22-25
  21. Kevin Reilly
    brighter blue south of DCA is fronto forcing… north of DCA is likely your overrunning which gfs always has a hard time with. I suppose subsidence could be an issue between bands but that like the other things noted above is now casting stuff.
  22. Kevin Reilly
    It’s all keeping it very interesting at least. Let’s just say this wasn’t really happening lately.
  23. Kevin Reilly
    Yep liquid available
  24. Kevin Reilly
    18z Nam changes
  25. Kevin Reilly
    confluence is clearly up here weakening and leaving stage right to my NNE over to Long Beach Island NJ.... The winds here in Media Delaware County were gusting past 40 mph about an hour ago and now have dramatically diminished.
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