Kevin Reilly

This here holds the clues to Monday no doubt. This above is not nearly as robust as the run of the HRRR from around 3 pm today and even this is bouncing around a bit and we are within 9 hours of the event. Then it is the HRRR with its wild swings run to run. That band there shifted a good 30-40 miles north. I bet we see the models at 0z tonight all shift at least 5-15 miles further north again.

Keep in mind if what you say is true about a fronto meso band going further north there will be an area of subsidence and dry slot rip off so watch out for that as the more finer details come into play we will have no clue about that until Saturday Night I would think.

guess we go with the higher map lol ratios

Yea 2009-2010 definitely extreme with our 78”

Yes, but if the storm were to take a further north course say as currently modeled continues nudging north you do introduce the possibility of sleet, freezing rain and mixed precipitation. You often do get a warm nose of air upstairs off of the Atlantic that's normal climo stuff around here especially if the storm center is nearby while transferring to another low off the coast.

Looks rather dynamic actually not just a weak sauce storm gliding through. Center of a low just NE of Baltimore. As modeled, this will produce here especially as this looks to develop on the east side of the mountains rather than the west.

Looks like a bit of frontogenesis forcing hmm... could be a quick 3" pop for places in Delaware County centered on Newtown Square to Media.

Think we got like 3” from that down here just trying to remember off the top of my head.

Also keeping in mind this whole conversation is bumping about 8-10 miles north each run in some cases could make for very interesting totals further north in the coldest of air in regards to those rations. I don’t think this is done bouncing around quite yet until at earliest this time tomorrow.

Suggests more expansive precipitation field north through colder higher ratios works well wow normal winter.

It’s inching closer and closer for victory in Delaware County. I’m encouraged it’s probably nudging further north but not too much going forward.

Soo February 2010 Media Delaware County picked up 23” of snow with winds gusting to 40-50 mph as the storm pulled away; not sure this set up will be anything like that. We have a relatively fast moving running under the block instead of into the block from the southwest. All in all snow is snow we shall focus on appetizers on Friday with arrival of the “real” cold air then hopefully the main course on Monday fingers crosse.

Euro last 5 runs courtesy Mid Atlantic Forum:

The trend there is clear and apparent not a blip in regards to a more expansive precipitation field and storm track. Northern parts of this precipitation field is going to see higher snow ratios to overcome smaller qpf amounts typical winter stuff.

Next round of following the ping pong ball. Crazy busy today haven't had time to look at really anything right now cannot say I am surprised with any of this trend.

This is the beginning of a north trend I believe. Early next week storm is contingent on the gusty winds and storm tonight getting out of the way of the clipper coming in on Friday. We just cannot know the final outcome on the models until about 6z Friday, January 3rd. I truly think we are finally looking at a normal winter pattern here this year. We shall test that normalcy to see this storm to our south trend north in time. That is just my gut feeling at this time. I think the 0z models tonight trend north.

My gut the way things have been working around here over the past few years is I think we do see a north trend today and tonight. I also think snow ratios will play a role somewhere in our area close by.

Yep, early next week is pretty much dependent on spacing to the Friday system and also the strength of the confluence up north. We just cannot know with much certainty until at least later tomorrow night or first thing Friday if your looking at the models.

Yep, probably the event / system that screws us out of snow on Monday and Tuesday, but we shall see. That almost looks kind of norlun troughy.

Ukie says Happy 2025!!!

You mean Thursday

I’m willing to bet the other models continue this trend and things start trending north a bit in time as this storm tonight that caused all of the thunderstorms and hail flies away to the NNE.

Ralph: Thoughts!

Rain will be through NYC by say 11:00 pm rapidly moving NE. Clear low center just southwest of Allentown, PA.

46f dead calm winds and skies are now partly cloudy to clear here. 0.50" Wild night here winds gusted past 40 mph a few times and had not 1, not 2, but 3 storms with hail. The second storm the hail was pea to marble size and covered the ground and cars too lots of cloud to ground lightning strikes wild signal for the beginning of our pattern change! Wow night! Happy New Year all!