Kevin Reilly
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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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That 18z GFS man that might be the biggest Bermuda High I have ever seen in December LOL the wild swings in the GFS has been comical from 938 mb a few days ago off the east coast to what I am seeing with HUGE Bermuda high tonight laughable but its obvious that the long range is up for grabs.
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Hmmm After Christmas.... I remember when first hearing about El Nino that this weather event usually was called so because the affects to the weather pattern often was centered around Christmas the coming of the child.
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Our new normal.
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I will not be wrong! If it were Cold well?
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The Great Lakes Freezing Over that's a funny one. When was the last time the Great Lakes Froze over all of them?
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Let's just extrapolate that run!
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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Kevin Reilly replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
So, when was this happening last November and December. I know I said earlier that the Pacific Ocean is not our friend, but you cannot deny how different this is compared to last year at this time. -
E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Kevin Reilly replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Great Eagles Win Yesterday! On the Models past 3-5 years I see a reoccurring theme our new normal; the Pacific Ocean floods the pattern in North America with warm air. So far minus it being a bit colder so far I see the same thing over and over again warm air off the warming oceans and Gulf of Mexico in our area. No Cold air has any staying power it just comes and it goes. I am not liking what I am seeing right now. -
Exactly when were BN temperatures happening last year at this time for any of us? Take the cold first then the snow comes second that's a typical pattern around here.
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This will be north a common theme in El Ninos that we score in the past is that the cold air is not quite as deep and the storm track is always usually south and works north in time.
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Well with a developing strengthening El Nino you would think the southern jet will push back.
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I am with you. I think this time last year we had predominantly a zonal flow right off the Pacific with a Southwesterly Flow from Texas, Gulf Coast, to Jacksonville right up the east coast to Maine.
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Warmer air holds more moisture, and this is still true in the winter. Also, warmer mixing with colder initially cause bigger longer duration storms. Also, with warmer conditions warmth transport to meet the cold forcing takes place more efficiently as well again initially. However, when things start to balance out moving to warmer overall, those times of volatility also start to narrow and even out over time. In reaction the the post above it is pretty clear to me the state of the Elnino and LaNina definitely is affected by the overall warming of our oceans and air with ocean air taking over since it takes longer to cool down relative to the past climate times.
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Next step is one piece is northwest of us and another piece is east and southeast of us we get no rain and the cold air is forced back into Canada and the zonal flow off the Pacific continues.
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Also 33 and rain!
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So far as in past years. I see way too much play off the Pacific Ocean. I am not sure how warm the Pacific Ocean is, but it's becoming clearer every year that the warmth flowing off the Earth's largest body of water is well, just bullying the polar / Arctic continental air out of the way or keeping it FAR NORTH. It's new normal I have been observing more and more since the 1970's, 1980's, 1990's, and 2000's.
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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Kevin Reilly replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
November 1989! -
But yet the sensational news outlets are calling for Super Elnio do they even know what that is?
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Isn't today January 5th. I picked up 10.1" on the front-end thump currently have some snizzle waiting for round two as the low redevelops off the Delmarva. We have a Winter Storm Warning for 15-20" I will take it!
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- potential tropical cyclone
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So far in Media 1.10" of rain 57 degrees dewpoint 54 pressure 29.94 falling winds are generally 25-35 gusts just past 40 mph.
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Web Cam of the beach at 57th street pretty wild right now in Sea Isle City and I think it's low tide winds are confirmed gusting 60-70 mph along the ocean front.
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Surf City Fishing Pier - Surfchex
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Surf City NC: Pier Surf City Fishing Pier - Surfchex
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Gotta be convergence also the frontogenesis forcing from the SSE and SE.
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That honestly has a mid-latitude low look which for our area in regard to wind is a bad thing because this thing is about to expand out and the pressure gradient is about to take off.
