Kevin Reilly

Currently 55f cloudy the sun did make an appearance for about 5 minutes. Total rainfall from last storm: 0.88" (dumped the gauge for round 2 later today / will dump the gauge for round 3 later this week) Looks like a busted forecast down there in south Florida in Cape Coral where my friend lives. A tropical low got started last evening and dumped 2-4" of rain area wide to Naples. Low just made landfall 5 miles north of Naples and is headed east-northeast. The forecast for Cape Coral a few showers .10" at 2:00 pm. Reality winds gusting past 40 mph for a few hours last night and 2-4" of rain. Just gives you an idea that the STJ may be getting going so one of our ingredients to look forward to down the line. Blown forecasts to our south sometimes can lead to huge implications winter storm wise up this way at times.

All the reasons why when we get a 20"+ storm it is a Special Event!

Fluff factor / snow ratio more cold less liquid more snow.

Heavy drizzle 47f humidity 99% dew point 46f total rainfall: 0.51”

I’ll take 973 mb storm for 1000 Alex

Lots of upward motions thunderstorms with heavy sleet. That storm there is a historic classic storm.

Storm total at PHL was 31”

That actually was 1/7/96-1/8/96

46f low clouds, fog, drizzle Total rainfall so far 0.49"

Umm wow the three hour change pretty remarkable temp rise from 33.2 dewpoint 25 to 39.5 dewpoint 33 light to moderate rain now falling.

Bring that to the Baja across northern Mexico or along the border to southeast Texas then move to Fort Walton beach and combine with a northern branch system southeast of Atlanta Georgia then crawl northward to Ocean City Md then ease out to sea to the NE.

33.2f dewpoint actually fell to 25f skies clear to partly cloudy. Waiting for: 1. Rain 2. Warm 3. Cold 4. Snow

screams rain to snow event 2-4" / 3-5"

Thinking back to the ensembles from a few days ago. Honestly, I think it gets busy in here starting sooner rather than later say this Saturday into Sunday.

Duca892 I will take it down another level lol: Last night's low 22f here currently 35f (kiss those Temps goodbye down here on the west side of the Delaware River) Looking forward to warm and wet incoming maybe a bit of freezing rain to the NNE of us later tonight very early tomorrow hence the winter weather advisories up there. I am looking forward to some much-needed rain again to attempt to fill the reservoirs but very warm. It is even possible to see a rare December thunderstorm on Sunday during the Eagles Game. Sorry Duca892 for the rest of December it 100% is sh_t the blinds time. As for January the only thing that can be said is we get cold over time but look on the bright side we have had 1.58" of snow at least down here others more others less so we are still doing better than last year. I do believe we see normal snowfall this year or at least I hope we do for Drought's sake. I still do hold hope for January certainly not dead yet and it does believe it or not at least to me have a normal feel to it honestly dating back many years to the 70's and 80's. I do think we get snowed on in January I will go with 8-14".

You have to be a teacher??

That might be right if I get 3-5" up here LOL

Got 3-5"

It has been partly sunny most of the day to this point right now. It is more like mostly cloudy currently. High so far today has been 37f.

I see phrases such as: We are bipolar We can get stiffed like every year Be patient let the pattern play out Better bone dry cold then warm and wet at least we have the most important player on the field One that many may forget maybe the operational models are off a bit because the mets that work them are off for the holidays the models will come around when everyone comes back to work.

It would be terrible news for the drought up in this neck of the woods reservoirs are down still 20 feet or so.

Love the +PNA hello old friend where have you been??

Clear developing split flow may take away. I think we need a split flow to make things interesting.

Soo..... what happened to Mostly Sunny high 38 today??? Got the temp right but the sun hasn't made an appearance at any point today. Sounds like a pretty blown forecast at very short leads. Must be an inversion layer those are always pains to forecasts.

Soo..... what happened to Mostly Sunny high 38 today??? Got the temp right but the sun hasn't made an appearance at any point today. Sounds like a pretty blown forecast at very short leads. Must be an inversion layer those are always pains to forecasts.