Kevin Reilly
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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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Don't worry it will be 60 degrees soon.
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What is also noteworthy of these years most of them had that one or two large snowstorms and many of them were coming off a Negative NAO rising towards positive. Standouts to me are Superstorm of March 1993, January 7th, 1996, December 19th, 2009, and February 2010.
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Yes!!! Sleet pellets mixed with rain at the onset becoming all rain in say less than an hour; this seems very familiar the last few years.
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I have been saying this now for going on 5 years. Welcome to the Pacific Dominant Winters where the warmer waters of the Pacific cause the Pacific Jet to dominate our winters in the lower 48. This is our new normal, which equals predominately warmer winters overall with a lot less snow in the east due to warming off the Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and The Atlantic. Waters take longer to cool down and by the time we do cool down it is time to warm them back up again as the sun angle returns to the Northern Hemisphere.
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Yes, as I said some models or Mets... because one local met in Philly who went to Mexico on a trip was calling for 2-4" two days before the storm was coming.... Yes, some Mets Dave Roberts WPVI and others had this pegged a week out. I suppose the met then calling for 2-4" wanted to be different then.
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As for some models an example of this was January 7th, 1996, up here in Philadelphia.
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Now minus the kitchen sink actually I like this look better for the fact we have a cold high up north introducing the cold air damming situation which is what we need with a NNE wind the surface blocking the warming off the ocean all about placement and timing of course.
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I am an amateur on here really but in regard to the MJO I was looking at the word wide water vapor map and a few things stuck out to me and that was increasing tropical development just to the east of Tonga and south of Samoa out in the Southwest Pacific not sure that helps us invigorate a southern jet which is now flat and closed to us in Central Mexico and the Central Gulf of Mexico and out to sea off the Bahamas. I also saw a trough slipping SE through the Aleutians and a vigorous low to the southwest of the Aleutians slipping east southeast wondering if that begins a -PNA phase on the West Coast.
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This is the solution it never fails. Also look no high up north again. Our normal winter has returned nice!
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Well, I see we are truly back to the good old days with Euro burying energy out west and GFS sending the energy out all at once to create our snowstorm.
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December 19, 2009, we had 23.2" of snow and the SST at ACY was 53f.
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I think there was also a 20"+ storm for Cape May County and flurries at the same time for SE PA when we were supposed to get 4-8" instead we got dim sun through cirrus here with a blizzard along the board walk in Wildwood.
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Currently Cloudy 51f becoming breezy here rain has left stage right high so far today 52f low 42f total rainfall 0.72" Total rainfall last two weeks: 2.45" Happy Thanksgiving to All!! Let's see if we can get a snow event in the first 10 days of December.
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It is what we have been missing in past years but is this real? It is almost like models say this is what should be happening and the next run the same model comes back and says this is what you are getting and reality though in our new set up.
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Here on this run gone on the next that has been the new trend.
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Heat Island Effect?
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Let me add a phrase... "No cold high up north".
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split the difference and this is closer but without a cold high up north this screams temps 39-47 with rain.
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Yea it would be nice, but like past years where is the cold high up north of us to feed in the cold this is the ingredient we have been missing over the past few years nothing really changing yet right?
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Two periods of snow in Media today once this morning 7:00 am to 12:00 pm then rain and now a light rain, sleet, and snow mixed. 35f dewpoint 32f. Total Rainfall from this storm Wednesday Night until Friday 5:30pm= 1.40" Snowfall Accumulation= 0" (Call it the first flakes so trace)
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I am beginning to like this season where snow hopes improve inside 2-4 hours.
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I think most of us from the Delaware River points North and West will see our first snow flakes of the year before the dynamics of this storm die out.
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Awesome feed!
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Currently 43f total rain for last night exactly 1.00" it is a start. Looks like as expected the models overnight back off on all of our snow chances in the runs see if it comes back later, but kind of reminiscent of last year, shows the snow then models say what are you talking about.
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Moderate rain here thunder lightning winds calm highest wind gust maybe 25 mph. So far exactly 0.50" of rain basically in 20 minutes.
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