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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Duca892 I will take it down another level lol: Last night's low 22f here currently 35f (kiss those Temps goodbye down here on the west side of the Delaware River) Looking forward to warm and wet incoming maybe a bit of freezing rain to the NNE of us later tonight very early tomorrow hence the winter weather advisories up there. I am looking forward to some much-needed rain again to attempt to fill the reservoirs but very warm. It is even possible to see a rare December thunderstorm on Sunday during the Eagles Game. Sorry Duca892 for the rest of December it 100% is sh_t the blinds time. As for January the only thing that can be said is we get cold over time but look on the bright side we have had 1.58" of snow at least down here others more others less so we are still doing better than last year. I do believe we see normal snowfall this year or at least I hope we do for Drought's sake. I still do hold hope for January certainly not dead yet and it does believe it or not at least to me have a normal feel to it honestly dating back many years to the 70's and 80's. I do think we get snowed on in January I will go with 8-14". -
January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Kevin Reilly replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
You have to be a teacher?? -
January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Kevin Reilly replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
That might be right if I get 3-5" up here LOL -
January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Kevin Reilly replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
Got 3-5" -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
It has been partly sunny most of the day to this point right now. It is more like mostly cloudy currently. High so far today has been 37f. -
January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Kevin Reilly replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
I see phrases such as: We are bipolar We can get stiffed like every year Be patient let the pattern play out Better bone dry cold then warm and wet at least we have the most important player on the field One that many may forget maybe the operational models are off a bit because the mets that work them are off for the holidays the models will come around when everyone comes back to work. -
January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Kevin Reilly replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
It would be terrible news for the drought up in this neck of the woods reservoirs are down still 20 feet or so. -
January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Kevin Reilly replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
Love the +PNA hello old friend where have you been?? -
January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Kevin Reilly replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
Clear developing split flow may take away. I think we need a split flow to make things interesting. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Soo..... what happened to Mostly Sunny high 38 today??? Got the temp right but the sun hasn't made an appearance at any point today. Sounds like a pretty blown forecast at very short leads. Must be an inversion layer those are always pains to forecasts. -
January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Kevin Reilly replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
Soo..... what happened to Mostly Sunny high 38 today??? Got the temp right but the sun hasn't made an appearance at any point today. Sounds like a pretty blown forecast at very short leads. Must be an inversion layer those are always pains to forecasts. -
January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Kevin Reilly replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
It’s a little too far south this is coming 75 miles further north. -
January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Kevin Reilly replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
Does February 11th 1983 count? -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Happy Christmas and all Holidays that you may celebrate! -
January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Kevin Reilly replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
I would expect the operational models to move towards last night’s 0z GEFS throughout the day and into the night today bringing more presents. -
January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Kevin Reilly replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
I’ve heard this before has to be added to the list from the other day. This cutter track is locked in. -
January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Kevin Reilly replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
See you for the 18z can't wait! -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
However, my Christmas thoughts are that this could still move easily to the Ralph let's have patience speech if nothing is showing up by this Friday. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
All just about over here a few flakes, sleet, pellets, freezing rain drops left 30f dewpoint 24f 0.30" of snow, sleet, light glaze of freezing rain this is exactly what I thought would happen. The highest I can imagine falling from this band is 1" at best at least down here in this corner of southeast PA. While precipitating here temp was 27-29f Total snowfall / Sleet today 0.30" Total snowfall for the year 1.58" (we are doing better than last year because we had zero in December like most years) -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
White Christmas achieved. We have nothing close to that here just a covering at best. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Cloudy 27f dewpoint 20f mangled snowflakes mixed with sleet ground all covered white say 0.03" of accumulation mainly sleet, my expectations have been reached this will be outta here soon. If you are driving though down here damage done with sleet, flakes, and freezing rain mixing in at 27f careful on the roads. -
January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
Kevin Reilly replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
See how long it lasts reality is temps in the 50's. This has been the cast last 5-10 years models show what should be happening and then revert to a climate change state. I know some say it dates back to 2016 but honestly it may have it's roots dating back to 1996. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Currently Mostly Cloudy high-level clouds 25f dewpoint 10f. Winter Weather Advisory set 5 am to 1 pm ready for a few mangled snowflakes, sleet, then freezing rain let's go!!! -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Clear currently 9f last night's low was 8.0f. It's only going up up up from here. However, before we go up could be trouble tomorrow morning between 7:00 am to 10:00 am with snow, sleet, some freezing rain looking at models it should remain below freezing entire area for this very light event. There is limited moisture for the system to work with as it is basically a weak cold front that will come through then lay stationary to our south to become our warm front to allow warming to take place over the course of next week. Looks like the moisture sleet and freezing rain opportunities are in the advisory areas shaded in purple. I am guessing that the areas to the north are not in advisories because mainly very light snow will fall with not much sleet and freezing rain and should just blow off the roads? I suppose they will make adjustments today as needed.
