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Kevin Reilly

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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly

  1. Kevin Reilly
    12z gfs I would say down here in Delaware County looks like a 4-6” event not 100% sure what ratios will do but it’s probably in the teens and snowing! We take! Thoughts?
  2. Kevin Reilly
    Only problem it's on an island by itself for now.
  3. Kevin Reilly
    Currently 31f Cloudy with snow flurries flying: Looks like a pretty good snow shower moving rapidly southeast on the back side of our blocking low pressure that needs to leave like now in order to get out of the way for Monday if we want appreciable snow. Total Snowfall in Media This snow season: 1.88"
  4. Kevin Reilly
    I mean this thing is just getting crushed south. Hope this confluence helps us with the big one later!!
  5. Kevin Reilly
  6. Kevin Reilly
    That's what happens when you train a great network of trained NWS spotters.
  7. Kevin Reilly
    To me isn’t this what the gfs and other models showing lobe up north moving further away. I really have a tough time trusting 18z runs there not called off runs for nothing. I’ll be patient until 0z to see real lasting changes or trends as I wave good bye to this little pesky storm stage right and get outta the way of the more important storm on Monday.
  8. Kevin Reilly
    30f currently dew point 21f wind NNE 7 mph Total Snow: Coating 0.35" or so underwhelming You can see the low developing to our SE rapidly moving ENE and away....>>>>> That's it leave get out of the way get outta here for and out of the way for our Monday storm.
  9. Kevin Reilly
    You forgot one where the best snow ratios set up in the coldest air on the northern side of the precipitation field.
  10. Kevin Reilly
    Actually, those higher amounts in DCA Baltimore and across Delaware into South Jersey very well could be that warm nose aloft causing sleet.
  11. Kevin Reilly
    https://x.com/chris_fukudawx/status/1875285611466363212?s=46 Ok fun
  12. Kevin Reilly
    We are the real weenies!!! Holding out hope to the final round, but it feels right to do. pixe dust flurries here 36f so victory!
  13. Kevin Reilly
    Ralph further north maybe! Not one flake here in Media skies brightening from the southwest. 36f
  14. Kevin Reilly
    100% Ralph exactly my thoughts. Note the movement straight east it would not take much to bend the overall flow behind this system a bit more southwesterly aloft. Also as modeled 24 hours ago this little system doesn’t appear nearly as dynamic or strong from my eyes.
  15. Kevin Reilly
    See if the gfs moving lobe over Maine out makes a difference starting at 18z look closely there’s a nudge northeast.
  16. Kevin Reilly
    Looks like a band setting up just south of the Turnpike in Chester County so there is that heading due east. Also, I am still willing to bet( not too much money though) that models tick northbound tonight when our system today leaves stage right.
  17. Kevin Reilly
    We know the drill they will either come back together again or they will cave to each other one of the two.
  18. Kevin Reilly
    All 0z runs tonight is your best bet to start trying to understand the final outcome. We are not quite there yet in my opinion and past experience following models and past set ups including this potential set up.
  19. Kevin Reilly
    That piece is key for northern parts of precipitation field because less qpf and higher ratios obviously means more accumulations.
  20. Kevin Reilly
    Looks like it opens the door at the last minute for a climb northeast classic look
  21. Kevin Reilly
    The orientation is completely changed on this model from 3 pm yesterday a NW to SE flow is very apparent on this map now can this NW flow move out quick enough for Monday think this set up holds the keys and what’s going on up north
  22. Kevin Reilly
    My thinking this is where south trend halts and Euro perhaps the gfs begins the bounce back towards final northern solution bringing warning level snow to Southern Pa and SE Pa Jersey south of Trenton
  23. Kevin Reilly
    Totally based off 0z and lesser extent 6z runs call it forecasting model run to model run but it’s a first call I’m assuming I don’t have a problem with it but it’s perhaps becoming clear adjustments are incoming?
  24. Kevin Reilly
    lol the band keeps shrinking clearly the NAM is only worried about frontogenetic forcing
  25. Kevin Reilly
    lol Nam band looks much tighter smaller if you would
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