Kevin Reilly

I have seen a lot of talk about the Tonga Volcanic Eruption that apparently spewed and unprecedented amount of water vapor into the atmosphere this may or may not be having an impact as well. Think they need more research on this. Yes, I know it is supposed to be a La Ninia as well too.

I’ve looking over the weather patterns over the eastern Pacific lower 48 Gulf Caribbean and Atlantic all of the upper level lows in southern Atlantic Carribean moisture flows coming from Central America into Eastern Gulf and now the 11th named storm churning up the Baja to Southern California all comes to me to be an east Based El Niño set up??? Thoughts maybe I’m off base.

Well, for me it means that this remnant tropical system which I have in my lifetime, (or maybe I just don't remember the last tropical system to affect them??) never seen before going up into Southern California is going to happen. There will be significant flooding for sure. They need to batten down the hatches for winds out of the Southeast and heavy rain.

Here in Media Delaware County picked up 4.05" not bad all of this fell 5:50 AM to 11:35 AM

Zip nothing here in Media Delaware County yet.

Anyone see the 18z Gfs sends a tropical system into Southern California inches and inches of rain

National Weather Service says hold on the instruments were broken that is why it was 84.7 degrees saw that article last week Philadelphia Inquire.

Yes, that was quite the evolution of a storm up here come in from the west head east then turn around and head west again. Also, at 240 looks like we have a tropical system ready to move to the NW towards the United States East Coast?

Katrina did the same thing over the everglades moved southwest then resumed a west then northwest turn.

I appreciate your dedication to getting the data together while I am sure it is enjoyable it does take a lot of time. I am happy to hear what goes on your neck of the woods compared to here about 35 miles to your SE in Media.

Where was the Volcano eruption? Are we talking the one in the southwest Pacific back in early June?

18z gfs has a 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm on August 30th for here if not zip until maybe September 15th.

This isn't really surprising that's been the pattern basically since early July strong WSW to ENE flow basically Southeastern States to Outer Banks out to sea that's been one flow and then well north another fast west to east flow across the Great Lakes into the Northern Mid Atlantic then moves ENE from there, that has been the biggest reason for the drought Mason Dixon Line Points NE to Southeastern New England. It is very dry up in these regions right now obviously unrelated to tropical system but to the pattern that will steer it. My two cents probably at this point it is a 50/50 whether it turns north and moves out sea or cuts across the Bahamas across south Florida and into the Gulf. In our pattern over the past 4-5 weeks, I would say moving West across south Florida into the Gulf would be my pick due to the ridge placements up north and the upper air lows that were passing south of Cuba recently.

On my car thermometer it was 93 leaving the Phillies game at 10:20 PM. In regard to rain the total here in Media is 1.87" since July 4th.

Yep, but what happens right along the beaches doesn't always tell the whole story. I would love to know consistently what the ocean water temps are say 35 to 65 miles offshore then because that would tell the whole story. All I know is that in my lifetime I have never seen a report as high as 84.7 at ACY that's pretty incredible (I am 48 just for the record and have followed these things since I was say oh 8 years old.) As we all know too around here whether it is an approaching hurricane, nor'easter development, or the rain snow line come winter the ocean temperatures play a very critical role I-95 corridor north and west. Oh, by the way I truly appreciate your data analysis from Natmeal Township.

Don't forget about extended fall to Christmas.

Yep, drought induced fall many locations especially here just north of the Mason Dixon Line points North and East. Hey at least the ocean water temps at Atlantic City made it to 84.7 degrees the other morning.

I will take the Euro for what it's worth. Two days ago the Euro showed not too much of anything. Over the past days we have known that these systems will not really develop prior to 60 west and well at hour 200-240 here we are. No model beyond 200 hours has intensity of a tropical system down let alone 10 hours ask those in Punta Gorda in SW Florida in 2004 with Hurricane Charley.

As of this morning ACY broke a record ocean water temperature was 84.7!!

ACY ocean water temp 84.7 that’s the warmest in my lifetime wow!!!

I was just going to comment on this once we hit August 31st through the first week of September it is total chaos lows everywhere.

In my opinion teleconnection indicators are worthless if the system is compromised by warming air temperatures and warming water temperatures over time and this process may also be speeding up a bit. On a side note, Atlantic City NJ water temps August 1st was 58 degrees at the beaches last 24 hours we have seen a peak to 83.4 degrees these are just wild swings overall the water is warming which may cause teleconnections to be way off.

That’s an upper level low doubt that develops. Not too little it’s a pretty large upper level low which prevents development.

What are the correlations of 0 August activity when it comes to La Nina or El Nino years? Is it possible we are in a weak to moderate El Nino year? I mean aren't La Nina years very active typically. To my untrained eye it appears that we are in more El Nino set up with all the upper air lows, shear caused by them, and dry Saharan dust. I have also been hearing about a Triple La Nina? Never heard of this? What affect does that have on this whole situation. Also, the super active eastern Pacific has fueled the idea of an east based El Nino to me. Thoughts?

NBC 10 has the ocean temp at ACY at 83???? Is that correct anyone confirm that?