Kevin Reilly

The next phrase is, "Winter is over see ya next year" Coming into the winter season here were my two worries: #1 La Nina #2 Tremendous Ocean warmth Pacific, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic #3 Southeast Ridge So, all of the above these factors are wrecking our winters in regard to sustained cold and snow in the Middle Atlantic. I am sure all these factors above are all obvious to everyone. If you want to roll in global warming and warm ocean temps not locking in 50/50 lows that can be included.

This does make the most sense if there is a block to our north in Eastern Canada. Your statement makes the most sense to me, "Possible that both camps are not wrong. Could turn out to be an inland/cutter low with a transfer to a coastal.

We can blame the toasty waters of the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast Coast the Warm Fence is up from basically Cape Hatteras all points south. Warmth in the Southwestern Atlantic promotes ridging welcome to La Nina and a new climate.

Chestnuts roasting on an OPEN FIRE Jack Frost Nipping at your Nose!

I bet we get more clarity come Saturday to Monday as the current storm that is coming tonight clears out of the way and the models see the new pattern. We have to see where the baroclinic zone sets up.

snow globe effect very fast northern Jet under the block and the southern jet screaming out to sea not to connect with a phased storm which can change. We need at least 4 days to work on that solution.

18z GFS certainly did make a move towards the 12z CMC solution. 12z GFS and CMC were off oh about 850 miles now they are off by about 145 miles LOL. There is significant potential Dec. 23rd from what I can see. It's becoming clear to me looking over the models over the last week until today is that the storm coming Wednesday to late Friday is the pattern changer then we look to get hit good the weekend of Christmas December 23rd.

One word sleet.

Yes, true true then there is December 23rd, 2009, when we got 23" of snow in Media with a water temperature at ACY at 53 degrees.

Hmm that's quite a jump to the east of the low along the coast and then gets shoved off the coast. If that storm is intensifying at all I would think it could drag down some cold air from the north and switch rain to snow along and just north and west of the Delaware River Wilmington towards Trenton.

But this is the new normal around here gnashing of teeth. You can thank the Nina and warm Atlantic. When the Atlantic is warm it is a dam if you do dam if you don't teeter totter that we ride between storm intensity, track, and lower and upper-level wind flow off ever warming ocean to our east and southeast.

Yep, there was 23" in Media Delaware County storm total just 13 miles southwest of Philadelphia International Airport. What was amazing to me was the very heavy snow with winds out of the west blowing 35-50 mph.

What happened to that cad signature the gfs modeled 24 hours ago? There is no antecedent cold air mass. The storm only produces snow as the storm manufactures it's own cold air as it deepens and also pulls down more cold air down from the NNE. There is no cold high to the north just a block. Places Mason Dixon Line NE have rain to snow as the storm slowly pulls away.

I would be worried about marginal cold air prior to the system and pretty toasty Atlantic Waters and the winds in off the ocean. I do not see how this system is a purely wintery affair the only way is if the whole set up is further east.

What's that 40-70 miles with 5.5 days left that's doable.

So, we are in the game, and we still have time Ralph! Actually, its pretty early in the game only 2 minutes into the 1st quarter. (Football analogy there)

Over the past 36-48 hours of runs concerning this system late week they are all over the place perfect evolution, to crushed sheared south, to now over amped. I will wait. Somehow, I think the solution is somewhere in between let's see the Euro. I do not trust the GFS especially way too volatile.

Yea but at least it is trying to get something going even in separate pieces. It would not take much for the GFS to revert back to what it showed just 24 hours ago. It would appear to me that the GFS is having difficulty ironing out how strong of a PNA out west and also struggling with the strength of the block in the Northeast. We have seen this song and dance before time and time again. Chances are the 12z GFS is a step toward the Euro or a revert back to the what the GFS showed Friday morning.

So, Dr. No did not follow the GFS. So, you are saying we have a chance! Clearly the PNA out west will tell us how this evolves and comes up the coast next weekend and the NAO holds the key to blocking and where the rain snow line goes. Us in the coastal plain should be a bit concerned of the warm Atlantic and Delaware Bay head waters which are solidly in the middle and upper 50's still. Gotta have the NE or NNE wind vector along the I-95 corridor to Chester, Bucks, and Motgomery county to lock in the colder air. Hopefully we do not see that annoying warm tongue come in and switch many over to sleet and I am expecting it. I guess for now just keep on keeping on and let's get the storm here.

I would agree. GFS and CMC look sooo different. It will be interesting to see what Dr. No says. My gut tells me follow the GFS though. In all honesty though I will not give it up until Tuesday or so. Guess this is better than Sunny and 55 or Cloudy Drizzle and 52 at Midnight!

0z GFS continues the shred and south. Maybe it becomes a southern slider or trends back north time will tell. I think we have seen this song and dance before in the past though. Now with that said the zonal look does have me worried under the block, but hey the cold will come and line things up for maybe December 18th to 24th period.

Fixed!

GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits Maybe the 0z run of the GFS last night is just a week too late?

18z GFS is a complete dumpster fire with blocking with no cold air. Two lows get blocked off the Jersey shore which would be great if only there was cold air these are our new times. The warm oceans rule!

Squall line through brief heavy rain gusty winds temp was 56 now down to 52.