Kevin Reilly
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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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Maybe we get some rain off a positive NAO now I am reaching. However, looks like it signals warm and dry like Neuman said though so there is that. Zippo on the models through 8 AM Wednesday, October 30th. 0.38" here in Media since August 18th crazy stuff. We are approaching historic levels looking at the next two weeks.
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0.38" here in Media since August 18th crazy stuff. We are approaching historic levels looking at the next two weeks.
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18z gfs initialized at 977 mb way off??? What do we make of that? that has to have track implications correct short and long term perhaps?
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Yes, this talk is a very delicate dance in regard to final track and in some cases isn't know until the exact location of landfall in some cases case in point Hurricane Ian. The surge will be very impactful and most dangerous part of the storm in this scenario.
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Well on satellite we are losing the eye I think we are going through internal changes right now.
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Yes, agree smaller circulations can intensify very quickly they also tend to unwind fairly quickly too. It is the latter that I am worried about with a smaller circulation taking off!!!
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Weaker too.... kind of been the case stronger storm goes further north weaker storm a bit further south that's what to keep an eye on. Storm surge purposes you do not want to be on the south and southeast side along the west coast of Florida.
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Not much water temps 86-88
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Yay!!! We just had a few small drops on the windshield. This is a pretty incredible stretch here. Only 0.38" of rain since August 15th here in Media, Delaware County. NAO still negative: Check (good for winter??) Models: No Rain in sight Check 2024-2025Winter Weather Outlook: No Idea Check!!
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Currently cloudy damp 63f humidity 98% dewpoint 63f 4 day rainfall total light rain or drizzle 0.22 Since August 17th total now: 0.38"
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Isn't that exactly where Debbie made landfall?? Amazing!!
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This is one of those times where the intensity rapidly blows up the information cannot be given quick enough.
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GOES-East - Sector view: Gulf of Mexico - Sandwich - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR This strengthening rapidly wow!!! Also definitely moving NE too this will be a Cat 4 storm at landfall.
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Yes, a prolific surge producer on the Southeast side and east side all the way to the coast in some cases pretty devastating.
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Any idea of the water temp it is currently over. I know last night at this time looked about 88f down SE of Cozumel Mexico.
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However, currently there is dry air wrapping around the west and southwest side as we speak. Helene will remain in check for now until that dry air mixes out.
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Totally agree eastern Georgia and southeastern and southern South Carolina with the obvious Florida Panhandle is ground zero.
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When Helene makes landfall Florida in the eastern Panhandle this thing is coming right up towards Macon Ga. and then slow down due to the capture and blocking present it will be a disaster Florida Panhandle through all of the Southeastern States namely Georgia, South Carolina, southern North Carolina, and eastern and central Tennessee thanks to the blocking. I mean 967 mb just north of Macon Ga. is a disaster especially for Savannah, Hilton Head Island all places Atlanta points south and east since those areas will be in the southeast quadrant especially towards the coast and the I-95 corridor there. Record Rainfall coming and probably winds gusting past 80 mph for certain. This storm merges combines with an upper level low and also is blocked from coming north and northeast with a very strong pressure gradient! Helene will not just be an at the coast event. Helene will remain a powerful mid latitude low all the way to eastern Tennessee. The Southeast is in Trouble with this one! Batten down the hatches and get ready!
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Currently 66f humidity 96% dewpoint 65f picked up 0.10" of rain today. Crazy stat here: We have picked up 0.18" since August 16th. So..... How are we feeling about the -2.7 NAO???? The blocking is off the chart!!!! Helene will give us zippo. Not many talking about this but when Helene makes landfall down in Florida this thing is coming to a grinding halt first and quite frankly it will be a disaster Florida Panhandle through all of the Southeastern States namely Georgia, South Carolina, southern North Carolina, and eastern and central Tennessee thanks to the blocking. I mean 967 mb just north of Macon Ga. is a disaster especially for Savannah, Hilton Head Island all places Atlanta points south and east. Record Rainfall coming and probably winds gusting past 80 mph for certain. This storm merges combines with an upper level low and also is blocked from coming north and northeast with a very strong pressure gradient! Helene will not just be an at the coast event. Helene will remain a powerful mid latitude low all the way to eastern Tennessee. The Southeast is in Trouble with this one!
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Welp up here in the Mid-Atlantic zippo has come this way due to blocking. So, my pick is move it north weaken as she goes and the system splits some goes west some goes east as it hits the latitude of say Roanoke Va to Richmond Va. I mean WOW the NAO is sitting at a -2.7 or so that really low and because of it we have drought conditions up here in SE PA. Here in Media Delaware County, we have picked up .10 since August 15th. So, Helene will NOT be coming here!
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Yea that dry air over the Yucatan and NW of the Yucatan could keep this thing in check for now. Also looks like a bit of shear coming across the bay of Campeche heading east bound.
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I am going with 5 AM advisory 75-85 mph
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currently 72f humidity 72% Dewpoint 65 High today 79 Low 65 Total Rain Today: 0.08" Springton Reservoir dropping fast!
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This is the ultimate blocking pattern!!! I mean nothing can come from the south or west NOTHING!!! Our flow is coming from miles and miles off to our east-northeast from the Central and Northern Atlantic. Meanwhile the flow is SCREAMING across Florida! Looks like a moderate El Nino pattern to me! Thoughts???
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight—50mph/1006mb
Kevin Reilly replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Models are confused of what to do is it 1 or 2 we are tracking??? Which area consolidates and develops? These are questions I have. Maybe both just fight and compete and don’t develop at all??
