Kevin Reilly
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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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Now minus the kitchen sink actually I like this look better for the fact we have a cold high up north introducing the cold air damming situation which is what we need with a NNE wind the surface blocking the warming off the ocean all about placement and timing of course.
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I am an amateur on here really but in regard to the MJO I was looking at the word wide water vapor map and a few things stuck out to me and that was increasing tropical development just to the east of Tonga and south of Samoa out in the Southwest Pacific not sure that helps us invigorate a southern jet which is now flat and closed to us in Central Mexico and the Central Gulf of Mexico and out to sea off the Bahamas. I also saw a trough slipping SE through the Aleutians and a vigorous low to the southwest of the Aleutians slipping east southeast wondering if that begins a -PNA phase on the West Coast.
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This is the solution it never fails. Also look no high up north again. Our normal winter has returned nice!
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Well, I see we are truly back to the good old days with Euro burying energy out west and GFS sending the energy out all at once to create our snowstorm.
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December 19, 2009, we had 23.2" of snow and the SST at ACY was 53f.
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I think there was also a 20"+ storm for Cape May County and flurries at the same time for SE PA when we were supposed to get 4-8" instead we got dim sun through cirrus here with a blizzard along the board walk in Wildwood.
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Currently Cloudy 51f becoming breezy here rain has left stage right high so far today 52f low 42f total rainfall 0.72" Total rainfall last two weeks: 2.45" Happy Thanksgiving to All!! Let's see if we can get a snow event in the first 10 days of December.
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It is what we have been missing in past years but is this real? It is almost like models say this is what should be happening and the next run the same model comes back and says this is what you are getting and reality though in our new set up.
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Here on this run gone on the next that has been the new trend.
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Heat Island Effect?
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Let me add a phrase... "No cold high up north".
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split the difference and this is closer but without a cold high up north this screams temps 39-47 with rain.
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Yea it would be nice, but like past years where is the cold high up north of us to feed in the cold this is the ingredient we have been missing over the past few years nothing really changing yet right?
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Two periods of snow in Media today once this morning 7:00 am to 12:00 pm then rain and now a light rain, sleet, and snow mixed. 35f dewpoint 32f. Total Rainfall from this storm Wednesday Night until Friday 5:30pm= 1.40" Snowfall Accumulation= 0" (Call it the first flakes so trace)
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I am beginning to like this season where snow hopes improve inside 2-4 hours.
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I think most of us from the Delaware River points North and West will see our first snow flakes of the year before the dynamics of this storm die out.
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Awesome feed!
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Currently 43f total rain for last night exactly 1.00" it is a start. Looks like as expected the models overnight back off on all of our snow chances in the runs see if it comes back later, but kind of reminiscent of last year, shows the snow then models say what are you talking about.
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Moderate rain here thunder lightning winds calm highest wind gust maybe 25 mph. So far exactly 0.50" of rain basically in 20 minutes.
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Wow that line down in South Jersey (where the fires were thank goodness it is pouring there) wow
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Heavy rain some wind 15-25 mph flooding downpours lightning and thunder.
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Currently light to moderate rain lightning and rumbles of thunder overhead. Temp 53f humidity has risen from 72% to 86% in basically 15 minutes. Dewpoint 47f pressure 29.37 falling can that be right??? No wind yet.
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Holy Smokes looks fine to me look at the line heading NNE geeze... Baltimore picked up .50" in like 10 minutes with winds 40-50 mph its coming. Currently here 55.8f humidity 72% dewpoint 47f and the pressure well it's falling rapidly Light rain here no trace.
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We watch Thanksgiving Starting at Midnight through Black Friday, February 1983 anyone LOL
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I am not in love with the position of the high off to the east in the Atlantic and a weak 1004 mb low to our south this screams mid-level warmth so sleet and a changeover, but this is December 3rd
