Kevin Reilly
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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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The sun has peaked out here a few times last hour otherwise cloudy 0.52" of rain today 56 degrees dewpoint 53 pressure 29.78 winds SW 25-35 typical weather associated with the La Nina Lakes Cutters. I am trying to be patient, but I have seen this song and dance before. My theory is to blame the warm Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico Waters. Let's see what happens between December 9th to 15th for further clues if winter will show up this year or not.
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suppose it's their December outlook? You know how they are they change every 3-model cycle runs.
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Accuweather already has spoken Warm Dry and Mild Maine to Florida west to the Ohio Valley all the way to Texas and all points in between sorry! LOL
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I Remember the GFS on Tuesday, November 22nd on its 12z run was showing a 4-8" snowstorm on December 8th coming up from the southwest moving northeast off the Virgina Capes.
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I am quite sure that As Paul (Chescowx) has the past data that would support this too for the fall line and beyond! I would say.... buckle up tool.
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I love seeing digital chances sometimes just as much as the real thing because we can see what can happen and then what probably will not happen. However, I love how our outlook is for after the first week of December.
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Winter Forecasts for 2022-2023 (Amateur and Pro welcome)
Kevin Reilly replied to ChescoWx's topic in Philadelphia Region
As captured in Media Delaware County: December +1.5F 1" monthly total January +1F 7" monthly total February -1.5F 11" monthly total March +2F 2" monthly total Year Total 21" -
Media Delaware County 39 dewpoint 20 breezy now light snow.... first flakes of the season have arrived.
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Chances are with that pattern any storm that comes along will pass very close by and will drag up the warm air from the south and this pattern screams cold rains and temps in the 40's unless the entire pattern propagates east off the coast.
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Very dark dank and dreary here in Media Delaware County we had a few waves of heavy rain, but everything has ended and lifted off to the NNE. Wind is now beginning to pick up out of the South. Winds on the order of 10-15 with a few gusts to 25mph. Total rain here is 1.25" as of 3:20 pm. We had 0.46" at 1:40 PM so that gives you an idea of the intensity of the heavy rain bands that moved though. No significant flooding that I saw outside of a small intersection that had 2 feet of water due to water runoff and leaves probably blocking the drain.
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Not only is it not a hurricane model it really should be a model that is retired. The NAM in some cases is a useless model. Perhaps it is good for showing dynamics within 24 hours of an event but that's about it.
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We shall see if the models trend to move NE and then exit off the East Coast with eyes up the coast to the Carolinas and beyond gotta think that is on the table as the trough moves out leaving Ian behind and high pressure builds off the East Coast.
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Totally the Key looks like the trough is pulling Ian north into the Gulf then as the trough lifts out Ian is only able to get so far north to say Venice Florida on the West Coast before Ian gets tugged NE or ENE through Florida and then leaving near Cape Canaveral to eventually turn north bound towards the Carolinas as the trough over us leaves Ian behind and able to come north bound up the Coast. Looks like the models are opening the door to this possibility and it will be very interesting to see if the 0z and 12z suites continue to advertise this situation. Hey, the NAO is going from Negative to positive moving upwards on October 1st which often does indicate a storm moving up the East Coast. I suppose time will tell.
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Hurricane Ian landfall location/intensity prediction thread
Kevin Reilly replied to Hoosier's topic in Tropical Headquarters
I think it will be south of Tampa think this comes so far north then gets the boot ene not too different then Charley did in July 2004. I am thinking somewhere between Venice and Englewood 120 mph. -
I think it will be south of Tampa think this comes so far north then gets the boot ene not too different then Charley did in July 2004. I am thinking somewhere between Fort Meyers and Sarasota.
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I have a friend that lives in Cape Coral west of Fort Myers Beach surge will be a huge problem prolonged SSW flow right into the coast and in the East and Northeast quadrant. Don't forget about the tornado threat too. This is going to be pretty bad if this evolves the way that it is modeled. Gotta hope for dry air and wind shear to weaken this down.
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Charley did this in 2004 Punta Gorda to Orlando to Daytona then off into the Atlantic did so fairly quickly this will be anything but quick though. Looks like it runs into the ridge then a slow bounce off to the ENE or NE in time.
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Blocking hitting a brick wall from High Pressure Building SW from the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic recipe for flooding and surge disaster Fort Myers North to the Coastal Bend of Florida.
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Actually, I would think there would be a lot of overrunning rains tropical air being forced up and over the cooler drier air coming down from the northeast especially if the trailing cold front is still down there. Flooding is a huge threat.
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Probably shear WSW and dry air intruding SE
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Yep Opal 1995 made landfall in western Florida Panhandle was a category 4 storm about 200 miles prior to landfall and made it onshore with 95 mph winds barely shear and Dry air did it in.
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It would seem to me that the models are really honking on a tremendous amount of shear and dry air located into the Southeastern states upon arrival of Ian to the Florida West Coast or up in the Panhandle. There has been dry air up here in the Middle Atlantic and the dry air behind these troughs up here is very stout. I mean it was 43 degrees here in Southeastern Pa with dewpoints running in the lower to middle 30's that type fo dry air means business, and I don't see any reason that the dry air would charge southeast towards Ian behind a trough leaving the Mid Atlantic next week.
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Blocking area of high pressure with lots of dry air to the north I am sure.
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We shall see but the pattern lately has had a lot of dry air in the eastern states, but I think it's a bit early to determine that right now. Now with the set up I would think there would be a SSW flow of a fairly most airm mass. Looks like it could be a similar set up with Fiona to the east moving NNE into Nova Scotia except this is further west then move up the Piedmont into the Norhtern Mid Atlantic. I see some models are out in Ohio Valley think that may be too far west.
