Kevin Reilly

You certainly missed one besides intensity elevation played a huge role. Look at the Fall line! The heavy snow matched perfectly to the fall line snow 6"+ was north and west of the fall line.

And there it is elevation and warmer air trapped along the Delaware River. Think my totals for Delaware County last night were spot on from what I saw.

39 partly sunny here rapid melt off on-going. Total snowfall here in Media 3.3" before the compaction took place. I drove 2 miles south to lower elevated side of Media clearly less.

clearing pressing down from the NW now pretty interesting signatures on the radar on the back end looks like little bursts of snow.

snow picking back up here in Media power just went off for a few minutes 32.9f Total snowfall 2.6"

Light to moderate snow here 32.7f dewpoint 32f pressure 29.44 wind NE 15-22. measured 2.4" I think my 2-4" for Media will work out. I am very curious to see how the southeastern zones of Delaware County are doing I bet they are like 1-2" down along the River say Folsom, Ridley, Glenolden, Sharon Hill, Colwyn I am sure elevation is doing its thing the way the changeover moved through. Anyone in the Newtown Square area to Radnor and Wayne would love to know your snow totals too gives a flavor of elevation. Kamu snow Garnet Valley probably same as Media 2.4" or so? Checked out Ocean City Maryland last hour 29.29 981.8 mb so that's your storm and energy over DCA transferring to the Coast has been in progress. Back edge moving on down from the NNW and NW. They probably did not get much out in State College.

Snow in past few minutes has really lighted up here clearly see the banding setting up along the Route 202 corridor moving NE. Call it light to moderate snow here now 32.7f about 2"

Heavy Snow past hour and still coming down clearly 1-2" an hour rates eyeballing it we are likely around 2" or so here in Media Delaware County 32.7f. 4 am a bit of sleet mixed with rain 5 am more sleet mixed with rain 6 am 100% sleet 6:15 am 100% snow has been snowing since.

That's classic take a look at the radar down there in NE Kentucky Wow! A clear center and another racing up from the south almost looks like they want to co locate.

42.1f humidity 95% dewpoint now up to 41f but wind has now shifted to the NNE light.

Wow that radar down there in Richmond Kentucky Wow!! Pennsylvania Weather Radar | AccuWeather

I bet Delaware County is split in half Northern and Western Parts of Delaware County go under a Winter Storm Warning 3-5" and the east side goes Winter Weather Advisory 1-3" that would actually be a good call for around down here and let the chips fall where they may. In the mean time we have light drizzle 42.3f dewpoint up to 39f now.

This is exactly my thinking from earlier. This climo and temp wise makes total sense really. I mean I am a snow weenie but I would say yes to this.

Now to be fair the Ukie did have a foot of snow clear into South Jersey I do not think that will verify, but who knows we are in "new times".

It's sleet warm tonuge of air coming off the ocean.

Down here in Media Delaware County I am going to take these factors into mind here in Central Delaware County: 1. Temps above freezing overnight. 2. Warm ground temps. 3. elevation 4. rate dependent snows My snowfall totals in Delaware County: Media 2-4" Ridley 1-3" Newtown Square 3-6" All broughs along the Delaware River 1-2" Garnet Valley 3-5" Radnor 3-6" Havertown 2-4" Springfield 2-4" Broomall / Marple 2-4" Chester 1-2" Swarthmore 1-3" Clifton Heights 1-3" Upper Darby 1-3" Drexel Hill 1-3" Eastern Delaware County 1-2" Think I covered it.

Relax Ralph it has not happened yet. I too STILL have my doubts. We shall see currently 42.3f dewpoint 37f so we aren't close to changeover yet, but I know not to look for this prior to 5 am here.

Snow maps still the same?

They all do Delaware County Coating to 3" honsetly though this is really tough but don't blame the lower totals with ground temps but dynamics can overcome and that is what this storm will be all about dynamics with heavy rates.

Yep this is also NOT one of those situations where snow ratios less liquid further north will help you. In order to get the heaviest snow you MUST BE in the heaviest corridor of moisture banding. This could be a rate dependent snow that can flip from snow to rain back to rain depending on rates so there is that variale too. I think if I am forecasting for SE pa like here in Media Delaware County I would call for 3-5" or so.

I am 100% in your camp. Literally where I live I could have 9" at my house half mile away drop 100 feet be at 3" I get you.

I was 9 years old in that storm in 1983, but I think this is a wee bit different set up. This trend here is unprecidented, fun, unexpected but the temps???

Ukie kind of looks like it think we are on to the short range dynamical models now. Euro and Ukie cannot be discounted.

This forecast is going to be VERY Tricky at very short leads wow!

NAM seems reasonable think it may be accounting for the cold air crashing and also elevation. I am very interested to see what the GFS says, but honestly it is time for short range dynamic models. Anymore shifts to the SE and region wide north and west of the Delaware River gets pasted. What is tricky in this situation you cannot salt the roads in the rain and this is CLEARLY a rain to snow event. The rain snow line will be monitored like a hawk! The earlier the changeover the more snow you get I would think in this case.