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Kevin Reilly

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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly

  1. Kevin Reilly
    Yea temps are meh..... the only way we get snow from this in extreme southeast pa is if this storm drops from its 991 mb to 983 mb like it is showing I have my doubts. I mean 7 am in Media rain and 35f then falls to 33f with snow wet snow with warm ground temps between 10 am and 1 pm Tuesday for accumulations just doesn't work. We Track Though! 12z to 0z today will be telling. After the 15th and beyond is where it always has been at but we will not know about those details until at least Tuesday when this storm gets out of here and the next clipper approaches from the Great Lakes and how the STJ either interacts with the NS or not. It is not out of the question it even gets meh out in time with more of a zonal flatter flow with blocking up top it would be just our luck!
  2. Kevin Reilly
    GFS and Euro timing is off by a lot both are ejecting the energy in the Southwest with different timing. My guestimate say we know later at 12z today and 0z tonight what this will look like in regards to how much of this is rain and how much of this is snow etc.
  3. Kevin Reilly
    Cmc is way further south compared to its last 2 runs, but it is a much weaker wave with zero dynamics boring rain with temps in the upper 30's to lower 40's
  4. Kevin Reilly
    That's important for tonight, I think.
  5. Kevin Reilly
    Subtle changes if the flow goes progressive ever so slightly east, we get hammered like 70 miles further east think we can manage that 115 hours out? Looks like a low rides to WV transfers east we would like the intial low just a bit more souther.
  6. Kevin Reilly
    You will not get it from the ICON Model Lol. However it is consistently bad.
  7. Kevin Reilly
    Don't forget the increasing sun angle between 10:30 am and 2:30 pm.
  8. Kevin Reilly
    It is on an island by itself unfortunately. Ukie, Euro, CMC, ICON vs. GFS and GEFS AT least we can say there is still a chance!
  9. Kevin Reilly
    FWIW it looked like the CMC rushes to Syracuse but gets Shunted ESE so maybe it trends tomorrow to GFS and GEFS we shall see. Euro will be telling.
  10. Kevin Reilly
    Take away storm further south, cold air crashing in, temps falling to 32 in SE PA with 9-11" of snow and falling to 34 with 3-6" in Baltimore not a dumpster fire LOL
  11. Kevin Reilly
    okay lock that up and we didn't see the CMC.
  12. Kevin Reilly
    Anyone got a snowfall map for the 0z GFS? CMC? LOL
  13. Kevin Reilly
    CMC to Syracuse to eastern Long Island Love it LOL!
  14. Kevin Reilly
    UMMM hour 138 GFS anyone umm!! Anyone!
  15. Kevin Reilly
    Yea I should have been more specific I laughed at the 18z GFS and I don't believe at all what it was selling. I do not take many 18z runs "off runs" very seriously. Looks like it went out to lunch!
  16. Kevin Reilly
    18z GFS wow! What -NAO LOL... What a dumpster fire!
  17. Kevin Reilly
    Umm March 12th 1993 it was 62f before we got whacked! PHL picked up 13" of now and 4" of sleet with a rainbow at the end. It started snowing at 11 pm at 42f. What we need is dynamics.
  18. Kevin Reilly
    It is coming>>>> "FOLKS"
  19. Kevin Reilly
    I liked that run better than 12z. Storm south falling as she goes 1004 to 994 to 989 to 978 offshore cold air crashes into those storms. I think the GFS at 18z is a move towards the EPS and a move back towards our 8-12" storm shown on gfs a few runs back. The thermals will be taken care of by a developing storm system as she goes. I am interested again.
  20. Kevin Reilly
    Totally agree with you. It i the case of split the difference the take away is cold air intrusion from the Euro and I bet in future cycle runs we get a GFS solution a few times of 8-12" of snow.
  21. Kevin Reilly
    Well we had 994-997 all over the place down in Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and how far north did that get. Looks like we are getting the blocking just the wrong kind LOL and also with no real cold air to boot.
  22. Kevin Reilly
    Keeps hope alive so I won't jump yet. A week out what can go wrong.
  23. Kevin Reilly
    February 13th and 14th. I am out. No Cold High up north. Rain! Again this was a bonus wait until after the 15-16th of February.
  24. Kevin Reilly
    I will keep asking the question? Where is the Cold High up north for the cold air feed? This is a common theme time and time again with few exceptions over the past 5 years or so.
  25. Kevin Reilly
    Is that 975 mb?? okay that got real quick drops from 996 mb at Cape Hatteras to 975mb. Would like to see a cold high up north but that storm is strong enough to pull the cold air down and manufacture it's own cold air.
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