Kevin Reilly

Ukie kind of looks like it think we are on to the short range dynamical models now. Euro and Ukie cannot be discounted.

This forecast is going to be VERY Tricky at very short leads wow!

NAM seems reasonable think it may be accounting for the cold air crashing and also elevation. I am very interested to see what the GFS says, but honestly it is time for short range dynamic models. Anymore shifts to the SE and region wide north and west of the Delaware River gets pasted. What is tricky in this situation you cannot salt the roads in the rain and this is CLEARLY a rain to snow event. The rain snow line will be monitored like a hawk! The earlier the changeover the more snow you get I would think in this case.

NAM big step back compared to 18z run.

Looking at the water vapor map pretty good push moving SE pretty quickly from Winnepeg through Minnesota heading for the Great Lakes. I wonder if this scoots our storm a bit further south and east.

NAM and dynamical models tonight will be telling at 0z wow!

Umm I am NOT ignoring the trend on the NAM clearly more south and a bit stronger! That is from the NAM an undeniable switch to heavy snow just after 6 am in Delaware County.

But we haven't begun the best winter pattern in like almost 10 years?

Looked like the GFS ticked south a tad too. I am guessing the Euro shows about 1.7" here in Media haven't looked at it.

LoL right where Bernie Rayno said it would be like perfect. Also north of the turnpike? Better drive another 2 hours.

Ummm yes plowable on the grass. Good luck on paved surfaces.

No worries Dr. Yes will save us in the Ukie I trust! 10-12" or go home!

Nam ED!

The long range is evaporating for snow chances. I see the same old theme being played out a lack of cold high-pressure systems. I dare say it may be time to pack up the season soon at least we got 9.6" this year in Media instead of the 1.7" we got this year so victory, I guess! Rain to Snow early Tuesday Morning I am expecting speckles of white on the grass maybe? Total snowfall in Media from this storm 0.4"

I am going with the Ukie and ignoring all other model guidance it is correct! As Mando says, "This is the way!"

Souther maybe but end result not much different clearly temp issues. I think this may not be too far off from reality think you can shave a lot of that in south Jersey away though.

The Euro run tonight will be rather interesting to see which way this goes.

I would take that in a heart beat!

nice 0.7" for Media

Well that would go back to the original solution where New England wins. I mean that is a dramatic Shift back and forth.

Yea 310' here in Media just won't cut it lol

probably means GFS is going to come back south again tonight watch.

Definitely seeing a model consensus coming together kind of classic really. However I would suspect some ticks and changes about 84-96 hours out one way or the other I bet.

LOL try 55-70 miles or so for most of us south the turnpike.

A lot of this south of the Turnpike is most likely not amounting to much other than the grass etc. due to temps, radiational heating, and ground temps.