Kevin Reilly

Yes a weaker system would slide west

It’s a bit frustrating watching some weather outlets continuing to garner as many ratings as they can in regards to Fred! This system should be declassified it’s an open wave and most of the weather around it support a few passing clouds a shower with partly sunny conditions. I mean we are tracking a 1013-1014 mb low that’s a weak high pressure system. Between the over hyped 90L the first to be Fred candidate and now this system it’s all ratings and clicks to me. Now I’m done bantering! It’s dangerous to be overhyping because when the “real” storm comes no one will take it seriously since all you are worried about but ratings and clicks! There is something else that has caught my eyes outside of Tropical Storm Grace. I have circled a system moving SSW not too far from Bermuda. The models off and on had this system so it’s worth keeping an eye on it in addition to Grace. The only limiting factor probably will be shear as a cold front and associated jet head off the mid Atlantic coast. It will be interesting to see if this system ducks under the trough heading off the Mid Atlantic and heads for the Carolinas. Unfortunately cannot upload my pic but check out the visible satellite near Bermuda.

Once again these systems are running west into a string of upper level lows from Florida to east of the Bahamas shear is the main issue. Again this Atlantic set up with these upper air lows and abundant shear looks an awful lot like a weak to moderate El Nino pattern instead of La Nina to me.

Fred is no big deal shear will keep this weak. I’d be more concerned with 95L than Fred.

However that is just what is happening on the surface. You cannot ignore the dry air and shear around.

That has been the trend too after Elsa with this hurricane season. The last robust naked swirl we tracked made landfall near Saint Augustine. This hurricane season is more and more reminding me of the 2009 hurricane season. That year we were developing a weak to moderate El Nino just interesting as we head forwards here. I know the data shows a redeveloping La Nina though.

Fred leaving NW islands of Hatti but is struggling. Dry air and westerly shear due to upper level lows one to its northeast and another northwest near Florida both of these upper air lows and sheared environment dropping out of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico should keep Fred from much redevelopment over the next 24-36 hours.

You’re kidding right???

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021081018&fh=6 I know it’s the 18z Gfs but this run is unlike anything I’ve ever seen in regards to the Atlantic set up a storm moving West Southwest to the Outer Banks and another developing in the Bahamas coming to Maryland making a left turn to Baltimore and DC and continuing on to Pittsburgh. Then a huge baroclinic zone running from coastal Florida to NYC and New England crazy crazy run.

0.67” here in Media winds gusted to 40-45 with vivid lightning and had some power flashes. Lady on channel 10 said Philly area will stay dry pleasant but dry at 6:20 that’s ridiculous.

Picked up 1.57” 4:43 pm to 5:45 pm in Media a few big bangs and winds gusted to 20-25 models showing some activity 1am to 5:30 am disturbance running along a warm front as the coastal low to our east gets the final boot.

Your map there is from February 12th 2021 if that were the pattern now East Coast on Alert for Fred

A lot of the models are showing an upper level low west of Tampa that will definitely impact shear over Fred if the upper air Los is still there that is.

Well so far the hurricane season is almost to a tee the same as 2009. I don’t know about the winter of 2010 but the winter of 2009-2010 PHL picked up 78” of snow.

Just saw this had no idea you said it lol we think alike if only backwards.

37” of snow this winter from one storm or a tropical system heading up the coast one of the two!?

That’s been the new normal

Then Next Kamu and I will tell you the sleet line is racing north and northwest through much of Delaware County! Game On!!! Right after the Strong Feb Sun comes out today and temps down here cruise through the 50's to near 60.

Media Delaware County 34 sleet to moderate snow now car topper expectations exceeded.

I remember quite well! This storm would fit in nicely with this winter snow and sleet deep into the south in Alabama Georgia etc. Oh and a massive squall line of thunderstorms ripped through much of Florida causing a 3-4 foot storm surge on the west coast with many tornadoes too. We got 16” of snow in southern Pa followed by 2” of sleet then .25 of rain sun at 6:25 pm and a rainbow! I graduated high school three months later.

I was in southern Delaware county where I was in Darby barely 1” before it flipped back and forth between snow and rain. Meanwhile in Media 7.4 miles WNW call it 3.2” in my part and almost 4” in Newtown Square 7 miles NW of Media. Elevation Elevation at work here along with the increasing sun angle.

Why not a trademark of this winter!

Oh look it's the February 7th 2021 storm we know how that worked out. That southeast ridge is going to push this northwest one more time. I remember Al Roker the Wednesday before Sunday February 7th say, "We have nothing to worry about this one is going out to sea".

Looks like second wave is further east if you look at the radar it just missed good thing too because it would have likely all been freezing rain. It's bad enough with the freezing drizzle all night. We have crept up to 28 here with a dew point of 27. It is an absolute skating rink here in Media. Even my driveway where I threw down a generous supply of salt is very icy.

Looks like a nasty little icing event for SE PA on the GFS. I mean right here in Media it never stopped we have light freezing rain everything is encased at 27 degrees.