Kevin Reilly

Light Rain 37 humidity 81% Dewpoint 31 pressure 30.10 falling Wind ENE 9 mph total rainfall so far 0.03"

Kiss that snowpack good bye!

How did the space "Spire" Model do in the past snow event just for scoring reasons?

That storm Saturday is a repeat of today possibly stronger due to the fact todays storm is a 978-980 way out in western Michigan. Saturdays storm 978 at Erie much closer to us. Heavy rain high winds and severe thunderstorms ⛈

That as modeled by the space model would be a HECS

Got to get though the two super soakers and wind machines first. At this point I am starting to wonder which storm is more impactful today's storm or Saturday. I mean 978 mb storm in NW PA is no joke for here when it comes to heavy rain, strong winds, and probably severe thunderstorms.

That looks like a clear arctic boundary on the models. Some of our biggest snowstorms love to develop along arctic boundaries. That is a very stout 1051 mb high building south out of western Montana diving down to Texas and Louisanna that will really raise the heights along the East Coast maybe we can get something to develop near Jacksonville Florida or the NE Gulf to move up the coast. We likely will know very little until the cutters and the baroclinic zone they leave behind decide what to do in regard to the next cold push and storm development.

I would think that pops a ridge out of the Gulf of Mexico.

This has happened before back in the 80's and 90's snow squalls drops an inch or two and into the icebox and then three days later, we get hammered with a storm from the south as the cold air reloads. I think these extreme cutters blizzards, rain, and wind events will manifest our pattern that we want for snow patience it is coming.

Well then it fits in perfectly with our two storms in the Mid-West Extreme moving to the East Coast wait until you see tomorrow night into Wednesday and Saturday!

We were in full bloom here for Valentine's Day last year! We are on the exact same pace.

Pretty good feed to watch would be Virtual Railfan there is one in Elkhart Indiana they should have interesting weather there I would think. Here we are for now watching live video streams last year was Lake Tahoe this year it is anywhere in the midwest for now.

I thought Cutters were a La Nina thing with a Southeast Ridge? Seems to change like the models.

They are just confused like all other animals cut them a break!

Cloudy with some drizzle 36 humidity 94% dewpoint 34 total storm action: 1. 0.26" of snow 2. 0.04" of sleet 3. 1.28" liquid All set for damaging winds with trees down and power outages with 3-4" of rain Tuesday 5 pm to Wednesday 3 am.

The 0z Candian suggests this further east notion on the weekend storm something to keep an eye on after we see where the baroclinic zone sets up after our super soaker and damaging wind event on Tuesday into Wednesday.

It's my fault following the geese and looking for the one big storm that's one and done for this winter with the 20"+ storm then moving towards Spring.

Tuesday Wednesday looks quite impactful 3-4" of rain and winds gusting to 50+ maybe wow. Throw that up north over 10" of snow its a problem.

Pissing in the Delaware River, The Delaware Bay, The Chesapeake Bay, and the Atlantic keeping them warming up! Then they will continue flying south towards suppression. However, they know this is the season of the One and Done! I know someone back there was saying nickel and dime our way to 2-4" but looking at how things are right now think we have a better shot of the 20" snowstorm mid-west to the East Coast in time.

Light Rain 35f humidity 95% dewpoint 34 Snowfall today 0.26" Sleet today 0.04" Rain today 1.08" Highest Wind Gust ENE 27 mph.

Head for the Mid-West Elkhart Indiana might be good looks like they are gearing up for a Blizzard next weekend or maybe it trends 700 miles further east for us so check back to see if you should stay here.

11 Days out what could go wrong?

34f humidity 96% dewpoint 33 wind NE gusting to 26 mph Heavy Rain with believe it or not mangled snowflakes darting through. 0.72" of rain in the gauge 0.26" of snow and sleet earlier some still left on cars and grass zero on paved surfaces flooding in poor drainage areas.

No Blocking blame that too. If there was a better block, we all would have scored.

32 humidity 92% dewpoint 29 freezing rain a few sleet pellets left icicles forming on wires and trees. Final snow fall total 0.26" On to the Transition Rain and Windstorms.