Kevin Reilly

It's just not that the oceans are warming over time. The largest body of water on Earth is the Pacific Ocean and its warmth is overwhelming the North American climate system. While you have blocking like a -EPO, -AO, -NAO you would think it would be very cold and forcing cold out of Canada, but reality is that we instead get the relative warmth off the Pacific Ocean not allowing the normal cooling effects from land and radiational cooling. Like you said though Arctic ice melt is also probably at play as well and that is melting because the lower latitudes are on fire along with the oceans too.

Also to piggy back the Pacific has now ruined our winters now for the past few years with overwhelming our entire North American Continent with relative warmth no matter the state of El Niño or La Niña states. Could it be our warming Earth? Could it be dumping worldwide warmth into our oceans which is changing the overall climate system? It takes longer to warm the oceans and cool them down hence winters in some areas are shorter and shorter windows to produce what we want snow! I have honestly not seen too many times where you have a -epo, -ao, -Nao and can’t find cold air?? Temperature wise we are above normal for January again. Just frustrating to see nothing even in a suppose good look that the Pacific overwhelms anyway. Now that I said all of this it will snow lol?

Well we are basically tracking blocking with zero cold air makes you wonder what’s going on? Guess the cold air is on the other side of the poles.

That got “real fast” lol

It’s very heavy obvious the models are having a very difficult time tracking the short waves and timing coming off of two separate streams and strengthening blocking with arctic air possibly waiting in the wings.

I agree with what you are saying! Temps day and night are remarkably stable not much of a variation. We do need a better baroclinic zone and temperature gradient to develop those all important coastal fronts that east coast storms love to feed off of the gradient and whatever warmer ocean temps may be near by but we also need the cold not this modified suedo that we currently have.

Hmm how about help from a southeast ridge to bump the storm up the coast? The southeast ridge isn’t just going to disappear from flexing its muscles. Thoughts?

Actually I should not have laughed a 1040 high to our north is exactly what we need and in the new pattern coming, hopefully that is what we will get a 1040 high with cold air coming from our cold source region.

Totally agree!!

Oh I’m missing something else we were in the best spot geographically in relation to the blocking that was in place too. Just so you know I’m only about 10 miles north of the Mason Dixon Line so not too far north.

Yes I remember both well set ups were somewhat similar. The temps here in SE pa were mainly in the lower to mid 20s which gave us great snow ratios which really helped us get to our totals. The February 2010 storm same but that storm had winds 35-45 over our area to boot too.

You forgot to draw in a big blue H off the coast of the Southeastern United States. Time and time again the warmth is gathering in Texas off to the east and southeast deflecting the storms to follow a developed baroclinic zone west of the southeast ridge.

Watch that for a few runs that could be the one just needs timing and spacing.

Only could muster a car topper white Christmas Yay!!! 26 here in Media

Long time!!! Just shows you how negatively tilted that storm got oh what blocking can do!!

Media light rain winds 30-65 mph power outages in the area 1.96” so far 64

Moderate to heavy rain in Media winds have like vanished weird.

SE pa winds past 60 lots of power flashes here in Media Delaware County 13 miles SW of PHL

Winds here in Media clicking 50-60 at least power flashes

Yea there is an issue with the radar I’m telling you though it’s pouring here big time

This is my forecast lol think the computer generated radar is broken but we do have torrential rains falling in extreme SE Pennsylvania

Think we need this record breaking event outta here before we can see our next snow threat. While the ducks (teleconectors) look just about right I’m not seeing the sustained cold for us to score at this time crazily still looks too progressive.

That’s quite a squall line wow!!

There is a warm layer coming in off the Atlantic down your way in DC Baltimore area that warm air layer gets scoured away but barely up here in southern pa by PHL due to the storm hitting the breaks and moving off the coast east bound.