Kevin Reilly

Definitely happening right now as we speak and will likely continue between now and say landfall.

I see some limiting factors dry air north of the Yucatan and also an area of shear moving SE with the upper level low over the NE Gulf sliding south. I am wondering if the dry air to the west keeps things in check a bit and the upper air low over the NE Gulf forces Idalia further southeast track but on a NE trajectory towards say Sarasota to Tarpon Springs area guess time will tell. Above it what I said last night around 9:30 PM I don't think the second part will be right obviously, but the dry air as a limiting factor for intensity could.

The models all shifting west we saw this last year with Ian then once Ian got into the Gulf everything with each consecutive run kept correcting and coming further and further southeast with a NE trajectory then forced into the coast at Sanibel Island and Fort Myers Beach. The same thing could happen again but just a bit further north just something to watch. The same can be said with past hurricanes like Charlie coming from this same general region near western Cuba.

I see some limiting factors on the water vapor map dry air north of the Yucatan and also an area of shear moving SE with the upper level low over the NE Gulf sliding south. I am wondering if the dry air to the west keeps things in check a bit and the upper air low over the NE Gulf forces Idalia further southeast track but on a NE trajectory towards say Sarasota to Tarpon Springs area guess time will tell.

That's a very tight circulation!!! Once that wraps around the center and gets say 40 miles north of the Western Tip of Cuba this is going to take off!! I have not yet looked at water vapor map the only limiting factor could be dry air on the west and northwest side if it is there.

I would say at this time looking at the current track Tropical Storm force winds in bands 30-50 mph winds, 2-3" of rain and 3–5-foot storm surge of course this all can change depending on how far east the track is.

I think we are approaching full moon during this event as well. I have spoken to my friend in Cape Coral (who by the way is still trying to fix the roof that was blown off by 150 mph winds) says the Gulf of Mexico and the canals have already as of this morning and early afternoon shown water rises at this point already.

I think a lot of people are focusing on where landfall of Idalia will take place. Here is the bottom line If Idalia is say 60 miles west of the West Coast of Florida moving North or NNE or NE the entire coast will experience significant storm surge and anywhere just E or SE of where the Center comes ashore will be experience very severe to life threatening if a CAT 3 or 4 storm surge problems.

Again, it is looking more likely we will see nothing from Idalia but look SSE and see the high clouds. There will be a front in the area so hopefully we get some rain from that. This looks like a dry October pattern we have settled into.

I think the 18z GFS showed this too and a hit at around Jacksonville Florida at the end of the run of all things.

Yes, the 12z Canadian showed Idalia slowing the front down and pushing tropical moisture up against the front to the tune of 2-4" that would be the scenario for heavy rain that could happen all depends on timing as you said.

On the Gulf is plenty warmed up for the Winter get ready!

Hasn't there been a state of emergency already ordered?

Sea Breeze front here in Media skis very dark winds gradually shifting SE some returns showing up on the radar.

Looking at the water vapor map looks like the main vortex is a naked swirl for now a bit of NNE shear... also I am assuming the upper level low over Louisiana will be the feature that drags Depression #10 north.

At first almost looks like there are multiple circulations but at the end of the loop clearly can see one dominant low-pressure system take over and move actually SSW towards Cozumel in Mexico.

That's Hurricane Michael did you mean to post the latest details of Depression #10? However good point of reference as the track may be almost exact we shall see definitely early on perfect.

I doubt this gets north of say Virginia Beach we will see the high clouds though looking south southeast.

Hahaha you're great. I can't wait in Media we picked up 1.7" the entire winter here southeast of the fall line in Media. LOL I agree I am bold with you. Here we go I will say we pick up 20-35" in Media this year.

I cannot disagree with this forecast, but it sounds an awful lot like the winter of 2009-2010. Wild times ahead I think for sure after September and October. In regard to Nor Easter development you can already see where a temperature gradient can or could form along the benchmark.

I am sure it will get to about the latitude of say Cape Hatteras and head out that's been the pattern for a few months now along the East Coast.

As I said in the other thread, we have seen a NW, N, NNE, or NE flow predominantly basically since May this is going to be very interesting come Nov. to March. One of two things will happen blocking or all the warmth to the South and West and the Oceanic heat will cause all temps to blend bringing warmth and rain. I guess we stand at 50/50 I don't know.

Everything has a late season feel to it up here. The weather up here in the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast has been nothing resembling August. The trees up here have been changing colors now for weeks and it is not drought related. We have only touched 90 degrees twice the entire month. Honestly there has been a NW, N, or NNE, NE flow up here since basically the fronts have never stopped coming. It should be really interesting to see what happens September to March.

What is amazing to me is that last night at 10:05 our time Madison Wisconsin had a heat index of 105 degrees we were sitting at 69 degrees at the same time. The pattern is well pretty amazing! I have only had 2 90-degree days here in August so far and it barely hit 90 too during those days. I cannot wait to see what this pattern looks like in 3-4 months. We will either have very very cold snow or all the heat across the country and the waters just bleeds out and we see 60s and 50s with rain.

I could see a scenario where Hurricane Franklin passes well offshore 175-400 miles offshore and holds up the cold front along the east coast to allow periods of heavy rain with a wave of low pressure running up along it. Euro and Canadian camps bring a tropical system up the eastern Gulf of Mexico and we will have to wait and see what happens with that.