Kevin Reilly
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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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Exactly when were BN temperatures happening last year at this time for any of us? Take the cold first then the snow comes second that's a typical pattern around here.
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This will be north a common theme in El Ninos that we score in the past is that the cold air is not quite as deep and the storm track is always usually south and works north in time.
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Well with a developing strengthening El Nino you would think the southern jet will push back.
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I am with you. I think this time last year we had predominantly a zonal flow right off the Pacific with a Southwesterly Flow from Texas, Gulf Coast, to Jacksonville right up the east coast to Maine.
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Warmer air holds more moisture, and this is still true in the winter. Also, warmer mixing with colder initially cause bigger longer duration storms. Also, with warmer conditions warmth transport to meet the cold forcing takes place more efficiently as well again initially. However, when things start to balance out moving to warmer overall, those times of volatility also start to narrow and even out over time. In reaction the the post above it is pretty clear to me the state of the Elnino and LaNina definitely is affected by the overall warming of our oceans and air with ocean air taking over since it takes longer to cool down relative to the past climate times.
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Next step is one piece is northwest of us and another piece is east and southeast of us we get no rain and the cold air is forced back into Canada and the zonal flow off the Pacific continues.
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Also 33 and rain!
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So far as in past years. I see way too much play off the Pacific Ocean. I am not sure how warm the Pacific Ocean is, but it's becoming clearer every year that the warmth flowing off the Earth's largest body of water is well, just bullying the polar / Arctic continental air out of the way or keeping it FAR NORTH. It's new normal I have been observing more and more since the 1970's, 1980's, 1990's, and 2000's.
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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Kevin Reilly replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
November 1989! -
But yet the sensational news outlets are calling for Super Elnio do they even know what that is?
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Isn't today January 5th. I picked up 10.1" on the front-end thump currently have some snizzle waiting for round two as the low redevelops off the Delmarva. We have a Winter Storm Warning for 15-20" I will take it!
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- potential tropical cyclone
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So far in Media 1.10" of rain 57 degrees dewpoint 54 pressure 29.94 falling winds are generally 25-35 gusts just past 40 mph.
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Web Cam of the beach at 57th street pretty wild right now in Sea Isle City and I think it's low tide winds are confirmed gusting 60-70 mph along the ocean front.
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Surf City Fishing Pier - Surfchex
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Surf City NC: Pier Surf City Fishing Pier - Surfchex
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Gotta be convergence also the frontogenesis forcing from the SSE and SE.
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That honestly has a mid-latitude low look which for our area in regard to wind is a bad thing because this thing is about to expand out and the pressure gradient is about to take off.
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Winds picking up here in Media just had a gust to 35 mph out of the NE pressure gradient kicking in from the High and Ophelia.
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Thats a lot of dry air on the eastern flank of the storm I bet this keeps things in check in other words 70 mph. I doubt this gets to hurricane before landfall.
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Pennsylvania Water Vapor Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather Pretty good amount of dry air on the east and southeast side of the center looks like Ophelia is being pushed towards the coast now wobbling west to northwest.
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It's expanding and the pressure gradient is taking over
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I am not so sure the 46-51 dewpoints up here would have a say in that for sure as the dry air is streaming down from the NE on the east side of the center of Ophelia
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Yep, I'd expect this over time as the storm becomes a mid latitude like low north of the VA / NC Line.
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You can clearly see the high-pressure gradient winds Kitty Hawk North to Lewes Delaware.
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Compared to the models the center looks like it is east of where they had it on the model runs at 12 and 18z