Kevin Reilly
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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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Hmmm there is more water surrounding the United States North American Continent and the South American Continent remember the waters are warm simply put the more land you have the colder the more water the warmer. Waters hold onto warmth longer than the land therefore your land locked areas are supremely colder landmasses than the landmasses surrounded by warm waters where warm air is free to flow from the warmer waters over to the land pushing away the cold air masses or not allowing them to move in.
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Two things I like above: 1. That's a pretty strong storm that far south 992!! Move north a 992 should have no problem dragging down the cold air from the Great Lakes and western New England. If that 992 moves NNE and develops along the way it could be a blockbuster. I like this a lot! No blocking high so it should just move.
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yea not sure a 1006 mb low will create its own cold air looks more like the 994 up off of Southern New England is sending colder air SSW but I would think this is bogus because the atmosphere will be flooded by Atlantic Warmth time will tell to see if something develops though.
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Wonder if some of that is sleet which is exaggerating the accumulation?
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Where are the 40mph+ winds at?
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Canadian Model wins lol and it just hit 60 but we lost the sun now. -
Yes, I too wonder if this is the signal for the pattern change, but I have not really seen a 978 parked over Wilmington Delaware. I wonder if this storm is a tad further east and a storm that strong man 978 would manufacture its own cold air and there is cold air crashing southeast, so I am interested in that storm.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
Second that! Trying to remember if we saw flakes at all in November or December last year (sarcasm). I am going with snow totals for the year of 20-30" for Delaware Co -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
3K Nam flipped pretty quickly so there is that showed snow through the Delaware River into New Jersey. I think definitely I would side with the dynamical models here with this one models like the GFS just don't cut it. I like our chances for snow Monday Morning 4 am to 10 am especially the Delaware River west, northwest, north, and northeast. I will go with 1-3" mainly on the grass with wet to perhaps slushy roads especially north and west. -
Well take a look at the Cam we would be in paradise right now: Downtown Truckee | Tahoetopia
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March comes early!
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It's a start definitely need the cold to settle in before the storms can come running up into the cold or storms developing up the coast with cold air hopefully locking in. Feels like forever since I have heard "Cold Air Damming"
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That 18z GFS man that might be the biggest Bermuda High I have ever seen in December LOL the wild swings in the GFS has been comical from 938 mb a few days ago off the east coast to what I am seeing with HUGE Bermuda high tonight laughable but its obvious that the long range is up for grabs.
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Hmmm After Christmas.... I remember when first hearing about El Nino that this weather event usually was called so because the affects to the weather pattern often was centered around Christmas the coming of the child.
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Our new normal.
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I will not be wrong! If it were Cold well?
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The Great Lakes Freezing Over that's a funny one. When was the last time the Great Lakes Froze over all of them?
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Let's just extrapolate that run!
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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Kevin Reilly replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
So, when was this happening last November and December. I know I said earlier that the Pacific Ocean is not our friend, but you cannot deny how different this is compared to last year at this time. -
E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Kevin Reilly replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Great Eagles Win Yesterday! On the Models past 3-5 years I see a reoccurring theme our new normal; the Pacific Ocean floods the pattern in North America with warm air. So far minus it being a bit colder so far I see the same thing over and over again warm air off the warming oceans and Gulf of Mexico in our area. No Cold air has any staying power it just comes and it goes. I am not liking what I am seeing right now. -
Exactly when were BN temperatures happening last year at this time for any of us? Take the cold first then the snow comes second that's a typical pattern around here.
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This will be north a common theme in El Ninos that we score in the past is that the cold air is not quite as deep and the storm track is always usually south and works north in time.
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Well with a developing strengthening El Nino you would think the southern jet will push back.
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I am with you. I think this time last year we had predominantly a zonal flow right off the Pacific with a Southwesterly Flow from Texas, Gulf Coast, to Jacksonville right up the east coast to Maine.
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Warmer air holds more moisture, and this is still true in the winter. Also, warmer mixing with colder initially cause bigger longer duration storms. Also, with warmer conditions warmth transport to meet the cold forcing takes place more efficiently as well again initially. However, when things start to balance out moving to warmer overall, those times of volatility also start to narrow and even out over time. In reaction the the post above it is pretty clear to me the state of the Elnino and LaNina definitely is affected by the overall warming of our oceans and air with ocean air taking over since it takes longer to cool down relative to the past climate times.
