Kevin Reilly

There really hasn’t been a significant NAO block December to March really since 2009-2010? We scored big December 23rd 2009 and February 23rd or so 2010 off a negative NAO. Correct me if I’m wrong. Now of course NAO was negative on October 30th for Sandy 2012.

67 already in Media Delaware County! Wow!

In reality so far what I have learned this year Winter of 2019 is never to trust any model beyond say 4 days anything after is an extreme crap shoot due to the chaotic pattern.

Climate Change I am sure may affect the index the most perhaps.

35 dewpoint 26 Media pa cloudy

I’ve been saying this for years Jan 7th 1996 PHL 31” negative NAO just to name a few.

30f Media Delaware County cloudy.

Now I know we are all looking for -EPO, -NAO -AO +PNA MJO SSWE etc. but what about the possibility that the warming ocean temps world wide is overwhelming the cooling produced by the melting polar ice caps. Yes, I am trying to link the possibility that whatever you want to call it global warming or climate change is at work here in regards to our weather patterns. It would appear to me that the overall warmth of the ocean especially the Pacific and the Atlantic is overwhelming the whole system with warmth and the lag time to get winter is increasing over time relative to normal. In North America for instance the continental arctic air is overwhelmed by the warming of the pacific for instance causing a storm track that just favors more regularly warmth flooding in from the Pacific. I mean 15" snowstorms along the East Coast Richmond to NYC are becoming like tracking hurricanes up the east coast in August to October. Kevin

Here is my thinking on Maria comes north slows and stalls a bit off of the North Carolina Coast then the trough comes in from the west and Maria begins to exit off ENE from North Carolina or east of Virginia Beach.

Also actually thought the damage would look much worse than what is being shown here too.

Ahhh yes you struck a cord now I remember him you are so right he did!!!

I post here Im a relative newbie but honestly I like the folk here and are highly knowelegable. Irishbri and Tombo brought me in here to read posts but frankly those that are still here I enjoy reading with and experiencing weather with and are somewhat in the local ball park with me geographically. Ie hey Redsky tremendous thunderstorm line just rolled through me and Kamu get ready!! Also love reading Rays post Famaritin he keeps the snow weenie in me grounded. I vote to keep things as is. I will certainly be here to support and read the fine ladies and gents here respectully. I have learned to keep all views and to listen to other weather enthusiasts lesson learned from Tombo.

Here comes the more important snows already from the south