Kevin Reilly
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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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Take away it’s beginning to look more like the other models at this time.
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December 23rd 2009 we got 23” here in Southeastern PA and the ocean water temperature at Atlantic City was 53. All about the proximity to the coast for the storm and that all important NE to NNE wind vector along the I-95 corridor happens all the time.
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Looking at this Eta is definitely on the eastern side of the track and strengthening. I got a friend in Cape Coral told him to batten down the hatches. Naples to Cape Coral Fort Myers up to Sarasota needs to pay very close attention. I would say Tropical Storm Warnings could be replaced by Hurricane warnings at 11 pm.
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The models have it a weak system that eases out to sea off the Carolina coast.
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At this point we look for signals but what is a bit troubling not only is the East Coast open to a hurricane strike a major ingredient to this scenario is a blocking high showing up in the Canadian Maritimes and its been there quite a few times now in the long range. I think we need to give it some credibility because up here in the northern latitudes there are definitely hints of changes to a fall like pattern with fairly large mid latitude storms just north of the Canadian border. Here is the system here crashing into extreme northeastern NC Virginia Beach 938-945 mb then to a position over Cheasepeak Bay at 964 mb then to the Eastern Great Lakes. Do I think its overdone maybe but we shall see.
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Yep check out the vigorous shortwave out in Kansas moving into Misouri.
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Total 1.47” in Media Delaware County we were hit twice. storm coming NE from Kamu country caused 40-50 mph winds for a time a few scattered power outages and trees down some lightning and thunder. second line came through with rolling low clouds and winds gusting from the NW 25-35 mph with lightning.
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Yea here is your next threat September 12th take it with a grain of salt for now, but keep it in the back of your mind.
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Also it’s almost cleared the Yucatán it’s well East moving NNW. It’s practically on the western tip of Cuba. Guess they should update further?
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Way way off course most models drove Marco through Yucatán that’s clearly not happening much further north and east
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6 NM center well with that Marco could rapidly intensify and arguably move further north rather than west towards western Florida Panhandle Mobile in Alabama just east of New Orleans as he follows the jet streak as it lifts NE out of the Gulf of Mexico. Seems like a steeper climb on the back side of the Atlantic Ridge right now.
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These models are folding their arms and throwing them up in the air and saying there is no way 2 systems can be in the Gulf at the same time and tries seeing which one becomes the dominant feature. Depression 14 right now is getting awfully close to the northern coast of South America and Depression 13 is being sheared pretty good. I see no agreement on models and think the most likely outcome is rapid development right at landfall which in most cases happens in a moments notice without much warning. I’d be prepared in Florida and entire Gulf Coast.
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I am with you far from doom and gloom. I mean how much worse can this winter be in comparison to the winter of 2019-2020. We only had 2.3” the entire year here. Just like hurricane season every winter season is different. At the same time it’s rare to have an almost shut out on snow two years in a row.
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Yea winds swing around from ese at 10 to NE and gusting to 31 last hour front on the move SSW small blocking pattern developing see how these highs building SSW jive with potential tropical systems working through between now and early October. I think we are rinsing and repeating the pattern again as Big Sky days and then waiting for the Cat 4-5 system to approach the southeastern states to make our weather eventful again over the next 7 weeks.
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There you go quite a bit of SW shear but it’s leaving high pressure is building southward over our area from the NE it’s feeling somewhat less humid is working in behind the system leaving which probably will become Kyle. https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=96L&product=vis
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Broad low to our SE probably becomes Depression and Tropical Storm Kyle next 24-48 hours showers a few thunderstorms could be thrown inland and move from NE to SE especially south and east of Philadelphia.
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Looks to me this would make a right hand turn to the East but yes I can see a depression or tropical storm develop in time as it heads out.
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Media Cloudy picked up .10” loud thunder a few bolts light to moderate rain...skies brightening now. 75 humidity 74% dewpoint 70
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Loud thunder here cloudy peeks of sun from time to time 85 feels like 95 humidity 76% dewpoint 78.....looks like Radnor Delaware County 1-3” in an hour
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95L. Has a vigorous mid level low but low level and mid level lows pretty far apart maybe it can get to the islands and pull an Isaias and relocate its centers. You can clearly see the mid level circulation tuck under the thunderstorms at sun down out there. https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=95L&product=vis
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Chester Creek this morning way up still trees vegetation flattened and a lot of mud!!
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Looks like yes and the baroclinic zone that Isaias rode up was left behind #1 and #2 trough cold air aloft just to our west and #3 mesoscale lows running by.
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Chester Creek Delaware County to crest at 18.2 feet flood stage is at 7.5 feet. Chester Creek went basically at 3-4 feet to 18.2 feet in 5 hours. Wow!!
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6.40” 6 miles to my southwest in 2.5 hours and an 89 mph wind gust reported at or near Wilmington Delaware serious flooding along Chester Creek in Delaware County Pa. looked like another mesoscale low 2nd in 2 days.
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Media 2” of rain with rainbow.
