Kevin Reilly

Media Delaware County 29 breezy winds NE zip here a little freezing drizzle. Clouds racing NE to SW.

Media Delaware County 24 all sleet here guess the warming aloft is here.

Media Delaware County moderate snow big flakes 24 humidity 90% wind NE 16 3.1”

I’m not so sure even at that position the cold is locked in off a NNE wind funneling down the Delaware Valley. Think we stay all snow at this point.

That’s fine. I’m going with GFS Euro and Canadian over the NAM.... now the Nam has lower amounts too because of it showing sleet. It’s a warner bias dynamical model my thinking is the Nam is showing tremendous uplift and convection along the Delaware River. Instead of that being all sleet reality is 28 degrees thunder lightning and snow falling 2-3-4 inches an hour. It’s the only thing I can think of.

Basically 20” PHL to TTN center of storm sitting like 30 miles SE of Cape May.

That’s heading this way then I’ve noticed it’s gotten a lot darker here.

Media Delaware County Very light snow graupel mixed in 28 maybe .15 on grass mainly

GGEM too

12z icon focused I-95 Wilmington De to NYC now with 20”+

Light flurries have begun here in Media 28 humidity 57% dew point 12 wind east 11

Media Delaware County Cloudy 26 humidity 60% dew point 13 here sun seen dimly through high clouds SSE sky wind east 15 gotta shut that east wind down. I’ll go with 9-16” for center Delaware County.

Well the Nam trend is troubling that's all I will say its been consistent but it's so different than the other models I will wait and see.

Euro

If anything the more trusted models ticked SE

Well looking at RGEM the 3k maybe moving towards it with all its banding.

Yea that’s the dynamical model that will show the finer details we are about 2 runs away from that right now.

At 18z the Nam will NAM us and all the other models will keep on keeping on while the Nam caves to the other models that’s how the I-95 Corridor north and west gets 12”+

Bingo!! It was more of a trivia question but that whole thing was a complete disaster of a storm even Paul Kocin got it wrong. I too am on edge due to that storm. Like snow is just going to appear on top of us feeling. Miller Bs are notorious for pulling the rug out DC Baltimore to PHL then your looking NE Pa and North Jersey to down east Maine getting pummeled while we have mood flakes and an East wind that goes NE the N then WNW in time. I am bracing for the disaster hoping for the best so yes I’m PSTD from 2001 and also knowing we are sitting at 7” total at the airport last two years.

Oh yea that storm we are getting 20”+ reality a few sprinkles sun poking out later in the day total accumulation zero!! That was a Miller B set up. Didn’t a meteorologist lose his job on that one?

Oh no I think we know sooner than that this clearly shifted NE this early morning we pretty much no what we are dealing with at 12z hard to tell if the trends will hold but there’s definitely bouncing around. The finer details get ironed out tonight at 0z but it looks like 10”+ I-95 N and W and N and NE this could move another 35-45 miles either way I think.

Wonder if there’s sleet in that I’m sure there is along i95

Euro will to good bye southwest bias

I’m fainting here in Media Delaware County lol

Hey Ralph we talked about the Euro bias earlier my under over on 0z Euro is 14” at PHL