Kevin Reilly

3k Nam shows 2” lol???

Actually Avondale is about 51 miles SW of Bucks County. Avondale is about 18 miles West southwest of me here in Media

That map looks exactly almost to the inch of the Euro run from yesterday afternoon. I am most interested in Euro run tonight.

Ralph liked we talked about this morning it looks like the Euro is beginning to correct itself from its southwest bias? However no doubt about it tonight's 0z runs will for sure seal the deal and what the models show tonight Euro included is most likely going to be the final outcome minus the fine details. Oh and then we can start the discussion about banding, gravity waves, and also the all important snow ratios is it 10:1, 12:1, or 15:1? I am thinking in this set up probably looking at 12:1 or 13:1 or so.

On Water Vapor you can see the Push NE to SW up north of New England in SE Canada that is now being modeled now. Perhaps the models are picking up on the strength and timing of that feature.

So Ralph maybe it's not the Euro Bias here... perhaps we are heading for a disaster overall. May it's really windy out there right now there is your confluence.

Therefore my forecast for Delaware County and along the I-95 Corridor stands at a snowstorm is coming look for a general 8-12" (We can go up from there as needed)

Yep and I would think that this error would affect the entire run coast to coast due to all the physics involved falling apart like a domino effect all the way to the newly formed coastal low being too weak and too far east or southeast. Now the 6z Euro showing what appears to be a dual low structure which is often the case in a blocked system trying to move NE along the United States East Coast. I am very curious to see the Euro at 1:00 today I wonder if it starts correcting itself or continues to struggle. I wouldn't be surprised the Euro continues to struggle while the other models continue on continuing on. I bet the Euro doesn't start picking up the major storm idea again until the storm is passing through the southern Rockies.

Totally Agree look at my comment from earlier: What happened to the Euro run last night?? Now in my dealings with the Euro doesn't it have a so called blind spot for storms in the far Southwest of the United States where the Euro either weakens the storm down too much or holds energy back in the southwest? Our storm basically is about to crash into Southern California as we speak just to the west of LA so I am wondering if the Euro run was just a blip and the Euro having one of its bias moments out there just west of California and diving SSE into Southern Cali before rounding the bottom of the trough out there and moving east. Thoughts?? https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/satellite-wv

What happened to the Euro run last night?? Now in my dealings with the Euro doesn't it have a so called blind spot for storms in the far Southwest of the United States where the Euro either weakens the storm down too much or holds energy back in the southwest? Our storm basically is about to crash into Southern California as we speak just to the west of LA so I am wondering if the Euro run was just a blip and the Euro having one of its bias moments out there just west of California and diving SSE into Southern Cali before rounding the bottom of the trough out there and moving east. Thoughts?? https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/satellite-wv

What happened to the Euro run last night?? Now in my dealings with the Euro doesn't it have a so called blind spot for storms in the far Southwest of the United States where the Euro either weakens the storm down too much or holds energy back in the southwest? Our storm basically is about to crash into Southern California as we speak just to the west of LA so I am wondering if the Euro run was just a blip and the Euro having one of its bias moments out there just west of California and diving SSE into Southern Cali before rounding the bottom of the trough out there and moving east. Thoughts?? https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/satellite-wv

I do 100% agree with this

Models at 0z= The Great Divide!! This threat has begun to lose traction. I am 95% sure we have a solution here in 24 hours

I probably should have said the Walt Whitman!

90% that the Euro will follow suit. All these models vs the King no it’s not going to work out. I’m not staying up for the Euro. Those poor souls in the Mid Atlantic Forum are probably standing on the ledge of the bridge looking down at the Potomac!! I mean did anyone seriously think 20”+ was going to happen.

This is what I said at 10 on another site: I hate Miller B storms I have seen us get screwed many times!!! I’m still concerned about a progressive flow that doesn’t slow the storm down to develop or a combo progressive flat zonal flow it can still happen. I think IF this were to happen we start seeing a backwards trend starting at 0z into 12z tomorrow. The big runs start Friday IMO. sounds like the primary is too far north and block doesn’t hold the warming off the ocean and south welp it’s probably the likely out come now. I never trust storms rolling off the Pacific and cruising across the country towards a block that’s lifting out. Opens the door to the warm surge!!

It may be right too?? These models may be showing the block breaking down the flow too progressive and the storm develops too late and gets whisked out to sea. It is plausible.

I bet the Euro lies between the GFS and Ukie and Canadian just a hunch.

Yep agreed mainly sleet probably and graupel. Wonder if there would be convective bursts you can tell I can’t wait for the high resolution dynamical models. I’m holding my expectations for now in check.

Any worry about warm air surging in from the SE ocean water temps about 60 miles out pretty toasty. I mean the storm is sitting there with an easterly component and the high up north is losing its grip as the block breaks down. If I am Delaware River east and southeast this screams warm air off the Atlantic with a changeover.

The new normal for winters

Lol it is a comeback winter all last year at PHL 0.7” we got 6.3 and 2 traces so far! Yes, I know I know not what we want! We want more and seasonal norms are 19.0-22”

Wouldn't it be something if Dr. No Trends north with the TPV up north too like the CMC and all the other modes at 0z tonight adjust everything north it may happen?

To help keep me sane I’ll expect a step backwards with a 967 mb low leaving South Carolina.., but for real the solutions that show sub 980 mb lows are most likely wrong without the flow amplifiying along the east coast. Reality will most likely be a continued east moving quasi Souther slider at 990 to 997 mb leaving just south of Virginia Beach. Don’t they often say the latitude a storm enters on the west coast that’s the latitude it leaves on the east coast. Not sure where I heard that before but I’m guessing only if the flow is zonal or almost zonal.

Wondering how much though is sleet vs snow?