Kevin Reilly

if you are looking for a KU system this is not the storm. I totally agree with that, but something also tells me that this storm is not a nothing. I just have a feeling with these wild swings in modeling last 15 hours that there is data missing whether it be with the northern stream system, southern stream system, or the placement and modeling of the high to the north. My gut tells me that starting with 0z tonight and going out to 6z Thursday the weekend event's actual potential comes into view, and we see some positive changes for snow possibilities. My gut tells me that this is a 3-6" / 4-8" from Washington Dc, Baltimore to Philadelphia to NYC points north and west. I think the further south and east you go it drops off pretty quick to 1-3" then 1" 45 miles from the coast and zero along the coast. Just my thinking right now.

I think Bob Chill said last night if you are looking for a KU system this is not the storm. I totally agree with that, but something also tells me that this storm is not a nothing. I just have a feeling with these wild swings in modeling last 15 hours that there is data missing whether it be with the northern stream system, southern stream system, or the placement and modeling of the high to the north. My gut tells me that starting with 0z tonight and going out to 6z Thursday the weekend event's actual potential comes into view, and we see some positive changes for snow possibilities. My gut tells me that this is a 3-6" / 4-8" from Washington Dc, Baltimore to Philadelphia to NYC points north and west. I think the further south and east you go it drops off pretty quick to 1-3" then 1" 45 miles from the coast and zero along the coast. Just my thinking right now.

Yes, I do remember this point! I should have known back where models have storm lose it then bring it back 3-4 days prior typical scene. The swings are just so wild. I will say this if the models come back around again to 10-15" they will lock in.

What the hell is going on here these runs are getting laughable. The low is jumping all over the place. I have ever seen this before which low is the real storm??? It is clear to me at 18z the models are having significant issues dealing with the northern and southern streams here and whether to phase or not to phase.

Yea, sorry the daffodils are already up along with my crocuses.

The trend is very clear last 12 hours north closer to coast weaker storm. I give to 0z tomorrow night. Bring on Euro!

Without a doubt look at the water vapor map.... check out Mexico the Southern Jet is ready!! Pennsylvania Water Vapor Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather

4-12" LOL quite a spread! I see he still likes Penn State!

This idea is something new that has been missing going on 3 years now. Welcome Back!!

The Big Storms Lock in Early!

Honestly up here in the northern Mid-Atlantic in my winter weather outlooks I do not retool until January 20th each year that is my magic date. This year I was going for 20-35" in Central Delaware County in Extreme SE PA.

Thye need to fly baby fly! All the way to Georgia and Florida! They know! Now the squirrels are going ape shit to stock up on nuts.

split the difference, but you forgot the Canadian.

Yep, I have seen them gathering nuts at a feverish pitch. How about the Commanders and Dallas game Sunday? Dallas might try to move the dam game lol, right? Also, mother nature loves January 7th and 8th during football season when it comes to snow.

I am sure this is going to bounce around a bit, but at least we have something to track. I will keep my expectations in check.

They know!

Dynamically speaking we have to rank March 13, 1993, somewhere I feel. Storm Surge on the Gulf Coast West Coast. Over a foot of snow down in Brimingham Alabama and 16" of snow followed by 5" of sleet and a rainbow at the end. That was an interesting storm it was like 56 degrees the day before and when it started snowing winds were NNE gusting to like 35 mph and it started snowing at 40 degrees.

Yea I was 9 years old and living in Philadelphia at the time the north side of the alley way had like 2" of snow down and the south side of the driveway had 5-7 feet of snow. We got 22.5". Yes, thunder and lightning with heavy snow with graupel mixed the wind was pretty significant too probably was gusting past 40 mph. After the storm left the next day, it was pretty warm.

That's what we call a southern slider exiting stage left. No Geese!

Looking to next Sunday we have some NFL action possibly in the snow: 1. Dallas at Washington 2. Eagles at New York May get to see a snow game?

0z This Guy will be back!!! I am telling you they know. They just gave some fodder to the GEFS for more confluence just waiting for the other flocks to leave up north.

I think that is more hours of snow than we had all of last year! Victory! They Know!

That actually happens often!

too much flow off the Atlantic there is your warm tongue of air mucking up everything happens most times now. We need a NE or NNE wind vector to hold off the Atlantic think we are still sitting 50+ ACY south.

You forgot one a warm tongue of air off the Atlantic switching things over to sleet and freezing drizzle.